La Liga 2Full time

Predictions graded

Girona5Las Palmas2

HT 1–0Sat 29 Aug 2026, 19:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–464%

Edges4–0100%

PossPossession 43%–57%ShotsShots 17–5On targetOn target 8–5CornersCorners 4–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 16:52 · Europe/Bucharest

Girona's home H2H edge over Las Palmas is real, but the market has overpriced it: the home win at 1.65 and double chance at 1.18 offer negative value.

Avoid those markets; the only near-value play is both teams to score, but wait for better odds.

Context

Las Palmas are top of the Segunda División with six points from two games.
They beat AD Ceuta FC 2-0 away on 22 August and Albacete 2-1 at home on 16 August. Girona lost 2-1 at Cordoba on 21 August and drew 1-1 at home with Leganes on 16 August. This early form gap suggests Las Palmas enter with more match rhythm, but the sample is only two games.
- Las Palmas beat AD Ceuta FC 2-0 away on 2026-08-22.
- Las Palmas beat Albacete 2-1 at home on 2026-08-16.
- Girona lost 2-1 at Cordoba on 2026-08-21 and drew 1-1 at home with Leganes on 2026-08-16.
Girona's first-half record is weak compared to Las Palmas.
Girona have led at half-time in only 20% of matches and trailed in 47%, while Las Palmas have led in 47% and trailed in 20%. This suggests Las Palmas are more likely to be ahead at the break, but these are season averages and may not reflect current form.
- Girona leadingAtHalfTime: 20%, trailingAtHalfTime: 47%.
- Las Palmas leadingAtHalfTime: 47%, trailingAtHalfTime: 20%.
Las Palmas head coach Rubén De la Barrera has set a more controlled possession game and stronger defensive consistency as the target against Girona.
His stated emphasis concerns ball retention and defensive organisation, the two tactical phases most likely to shape Las Palmas' approach. He described Girona as a difficult promotion candidate and said Las Palmas would need an improved performance.
- De la Barrera said the key was to offer a better version with the ball and show more consistency without it.
- He described Girona as a difficult promotion candidate and said Las Palmas would need an improved performance.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 10:36 · Europe/BucharestCadena SERcadenaser.com · 27 Aug 2026
Girona control the ball but have a poor defensive record.
Girona average 56.9% possession and 15.6 shots per game, yet concede 1.7 goals per game. Las Palmas average 53% possession and concede 1.3 goals per game. Girona's high possession may not translate into defensive solidity, but these are season averages.
- Girona average possession 56.9%, goals conceded 1.7 per game.
- Las Palmas average possession 53%, goals conceded 1.3 per game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Girona

1.65fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

The market is pricing Girona as a strong favourite but our model gives them only a 42% chance, making the home win poor value despite the H2H edge.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Girona or Draw

1.18fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

The double chance is heavily juiced towards Girona or Draw, but our model only gives this outcome a 68% probability, leaving no value.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.75fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored in 4 of their last 5 competitive matches, and Girona's defensive vulnerabilities increase the likelihood of both teams finding the net.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.30fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a tendency to be involved in first-half goals, with Las Palmas particularly strong in the opening period.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Girona's strong recent home H2H record against Las Palmas and the motivation of an immediate return campaign give them a slight edge, but their current form is poor.
- Girona unbeaten in last 3 home H2H vs Las Palmas (2W, 1D)
- Las Palmas away record this season: 1W, 0D, 0L, but only 1 away match played
- Girona home record this season: 0W, 1D, 0L (1-1 vs Leganes)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGironaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Girona's home H2H dominance and Las Palmas' historical struggles at Montilivi support a double chance for the home side.
- Girona unbeaten in last 3 home H2H vs Las Palmas
- Las Palmas have not won at Montilivi in last 3 meetings
- Girona home record this season: 1 draw, 0 losses
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGirona or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Girona's poor first-half record and Las Palmas' moderate first-half performance make a draw at the break a plausible outcome.
- Girona led at half-time in only 20% of matches
- Las Palmas led at half-time in 47% of matches
- Girona trailed at half-time in 47% of matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Girona win is a low-probability but possible scenario given Girona's tendency to improve in the second half.
- Girona have drawn at half-time in 3 of last 5 competitive matches
- Girona have won 2 of last 5 competitive matches
- Las Palmas have led at half-time in 47% of matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/GironaEstimated chance18%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring and conceding rates, but the combined average is close to the 2.5 line, making this a low-confidence lean.
- Girona average 1.2 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per match
- Las Palmas average 1.5 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per match
- Combined average goals per match: 2.9
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability, and Girona's defensive vulnerabilities increase the likelihood of both teams finding the net.
- Girona scored in 4 of last 5 competitive matches
- Las Palmas scored in 4 of last 5 competitive matches
- Girona conceded in 4 of last 5 competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to be involved in first-half goals, with Las Palmas particularly strong in the opening period.
- Girona average 0.4 first-half goals, concede 0.7
- Las Palmas average 0.7 first-half goals, concede 0.5
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.1
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second-half scoring rates are close to the 1.5 line, but the overall match tempo suggests a slight lean towards more goals.
- Girona average 0.8 second-half goals, concede 1.0
- Las Palmas average 0.8 second-half goals, concede 0.8
- Combined second-half goal average: 1.6
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages are slightly above the 8.5 line, but the variance is high, making this a low-confidence pick.
- Girona average 5 corners per match, concede 4.2
- Las Palmas average 3.9 corners per match, concede 5.1
- Combined average corners: 9.1
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of shots on target, and the combined average is just above the 8.5 line.
- Girona average 5.2 shots on target per match
- Las Palmas average 3.8 shots on target per match
- Combined average shots on target: 9.0
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined card average is below the 4.5 line, but the competitive nature of the match could lead to more bookings.
- Girona average 2.3 yellow cards per match
- Las Palmas average 0.7 yellow cards per match
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.0
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance48%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 60.6% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; price already reflects the directional read and overvalues home H2H.

Prediction history

Girona has been moderately reliable on Over 4.5 cards

Girona's Over 4.5 cards predictions have been fulfilled in 3 of 5 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 59.4%, with an expected 3 fulfilled predictions, so the outcome matched expectation. Notably, all 3 fulfilled predictions occurred at home, while both away matches missed.

Recent evidence for Girona5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 May·La Liga