IK Kongahalla1Galtabacks BK3

HT 1–2Fri 28 Aug 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–450%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Aug 2026, 15:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Galtabäcks BK's dreadful away record (1W 0D 8L) makes IK Kongahälla the likely winner, but the odds at 1.95 offer no value (model edge -11pts).

The double chance at 1.57 is fair, while over 2.5 goals and over 0.5 first-half goals are heavily overpriced and should be avoided.

Context

Galtabäcks away record: 1W 0D 8L
- They have conceded 20 goals in 9 away games
- Only away win came against a lower-ranked side
Home record: 2W 3D 4L
- Scored 10 and conceded 13 in 9 home games
- Recent home win: 4-0 vs Västra Frölunda
13 June 2026: Galtabäcks 1-2 Kongahälla
- Both teams scored in that match
- Kongahälla led at half-time
Venue confirmed as Kongevi 1 Konstgräs
- Kongahälla play home matches on artificial turf
- No direct evidence of Galtabäcks' turf performance

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

IK Kongahalla

1.95fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 51.3%

0.0ppshort

Galtabacks BK have lost 8 of 9 away matches, but IK Kongahalla's home record is also weak, leaving the market price slightly short of our estimate.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.38fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Combined team averages and H2H suggest some goal potential, but the odds heavily favor over and leave no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
IK Kongahalla's home advantage and superior away form for Galtabacks BK, combined with the H2H win, give them the edge despite overall poor form.
- IK Kongahalla home record: 2W 3D 4L, 10 goals for, 13 against in 9 home matches
- Galtabacks BK away record: 1W 0D 8L, 10 goals for, 20 against in 9 away matches
- H2H: IK Kongahalla won the only meeting 2-1 away on 13 June 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIK KongahallaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Galtabacks BK's dreadful away form (1 win in 9) makes IK Kongahalla or Draw a strong double chance, supported by the H2H result.
- IK Kongahalla home record: 2W 3D 4L, 10 goals for, 13 against in 9 home matches
- Galtabacks BK away record: 1W 0D 8L, 10 goals for, 20 against in 9 away matches
- H2H: IK Kongahalla won the only meeting 2-1 away on 13 June 2026
BetBugs · Double ChancelostIK Kongahalla or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given both teams' tendency to trail or be level at half-time, a draw at half-time is plausible.
- IK Kongahalla led at half-time in 33% of matches and trailed in 40%
- Galtabacks BK led at half-time in 7% and trailed in 47%
- Both teams often go into half-time level or behind
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by an IK Kongahalla win is a possible scenario given Galtabacks BK's poor away form.
- IK Kongahalla have drawn at half-time in several matches and won some
- Galtabacks BK often trail at half-time and lose
- H2H: IK Kongahalla won after leading at half-time
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / IK KongahallaEstimated chance20%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have leaky defenses and modest attacks, but the combined averages and H2H suggest a decent chance of over 2.5 goals.
- IK Kongahalla average 1.1 goals for and 1.9 goals against per match overall
- Galtabacks BK average 0.9 goals for and 1.7 goals against per match overall
- H2H meeting produced 3 goals (2-1)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score while conceding regularly, and the H2H supports both teams scoring.
- IK Kongahalla scored in 8 of their last 15 matches
- Galtabacks BK scored in 9 of their last 15 matches
- H2H meeting saw both teams score (2-1)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede in the first half, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- IK Kongahalla average 0.7 first-half goals for and 0.9 first-half goals against
- Galtabacks BK average 0.4 first-half goals for and 1.0 first-half goals against
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.5 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is lower than first half for both teams, so over 1.5 second-half goals is a coin flip.
- IK Kongahalla average 1.1 total goals per match, with 0.7 in first half, implying 0.4 in second half
- Galtabacks BK average 0.9 total goals per match, with 0.4 in first half, implying 0.5 in second half
- Combined second-half goal average is approximately 0.9
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without corner statistics, this prediction is speculative and based on typical lower-league match patterns.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- No reliable corner averages can be derived from the provided data
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Card predictions are speculative due to missing discipline data, but lower-league matches often see multiple cards.
- Discipline data (fouls, yellow cards) is unavailable for both teams
- No card averages can be derived from the provided data
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 36% leaves no cushion vs our 35% estimate; the away side's dreadful away record makes this a trap.

Prediction history

IK Kongahalla has fulfilled Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 recent matches

IK Kongahalla has fulfilled Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 recent matches, with an average estimated probability of 59%. The current prediction of 55% sits within the historical range of 55-60%, and the team has been more reliable away from home, fulfilling 2 of 3 away projections compared to 1 of 2 at home.

Recent evidence for IK Kongahalla5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·Division 2 - Västra Götaland