SuperettanFull time

Predictions graded

IFK Norrkoping2Falkenbergs1

HT 2–0Mon 24 Aug 2026, 17:05 Predictions graded

Predictions7–278%

Edges5–183%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 07:04 · Europe/Bucharest

IFK Norrkoping are strong favourites at home, but the best value is in over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.20 (edge +9.5pts).

Avoid over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, as the odds imply much higher probabilities than our model estimates.

Context

IFK won 4-1 at Sandviken on 15 August.
- They beat IK Brage 3-0 at home on 8 August.
- They have kept clean sheets in four of those five wins.
Andersson said on 14 August that the team trained defensive structure, three-player press, and one-v-one defending.
- Two players returned to the squad for their last match: Albin Andersson from suspension and Godwin Aguda.
- Falkenbergs won their last match 2-0 against Norrby IF.
The reverse fixture on 5 May 2026 ended 1-0 to Falkenbergs.
- IFK had 57% possession and 15 shots but failed to score.
- Falkenbergs defended deep and scored the only goal.
IFK have 6 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses at home.
- They have scored 20 goals and conceded 5 at Idrottsparken.
- They have kept clean sheets in 6 of 9 home matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IFK's dominant form and home advantage, combined with Falkenbergs' inconsistent away record, make a home win the most likely outcome.
- IFK Norrkoping are top of Superettan with 41 points from 19 games, 6 points clear of Falkenbergs.
- IFK have won their last 5 league matches, scoring 13 and conceding 1.
- At home this season, IFK have 6 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, with 20 goals scored and 5 conceded.
- Falkenbergs have lost 2 of their last 5 away matches, conceding 16 goals in 9 away games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIFK NorrkopingEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IFK's strong home record and Falkenbergs' moderate away form suggest a very low probability of an away win.
- IFK Norrkoping have only lost 2 home games all season.
- Falkenbergs have won only 5 of 9 away matches, with 2 draws and 2 losses.
- IFK have won 13 of 19 league games overall, drawing 2.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonIFK Norrkoping or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
IFK's tendency to lead at half-time and Falkenbergs' vulnerability early give the home side an edge in the first half.
- IFK Norrkoping have led at half-time in 60% of their matches.
- Falkenbergs have trailed at half-time in 40% of their matches.
- IFK average 1.0 first-half goals, while Falkenbergs concede 0.9 first-half goals.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonIFK NorrkopingEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
IFK's ability to control matches from the start makes a half-time/full-time double a plausible outcome.
- IFK Norrkoping have led at half-time and won the match in 60% of their games.
- Falkenbergs have trailed at half-time and lost the match in 40% of their games.
- IFK's strong home form supports a wire-to-wire victory.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonIFK Norrkoping/IFK NorrkopingEstimated chance40%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high scoring averages, especially Falkenbergs away, making over 2.5 goals a reasonable expectation.
- IFK Norrkoping average 1.8 goals per game overall and 2.2 goals per home game.
- Falkenbergs average 2.3 goals per game overall and 2.4 goals per away game.
- Falkenbergs' away matches have seen an average of 4.2 total goals (22 scored, 16 conceded in 9 games).
- IFK's home matches have seen an average of 2.8 total goals (20 scored, 5 conceded in 9 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While IFK's defense is strong at home, Falkenbergs' consistent away scoring suggests both teams could find the net.
- Falkenbergs have scored in 8 of their 9 away matches this season.
- IFK Norrkoping have kept clean sheets in 6 of their 9 home matches, but Falkenbergs' away scoring record is strong.
- Falkenbergs average 2.4 goals per away game.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
IFK's home defensive record is excellent, but Falkenbergs' away scoring threat reduces the likelihood of a clean sheet.
- IFK Norrkoping have kept clean sheets in 6 of their 9 home matches.
- IFK have conceded only 5 goals in 9 home games.
- Falkenbergs have failed to score in only 1 away match this season.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostFalkenbergs not to scoreEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined first-half scoring averages suggest a moderate chance of over 1.5 goals, but variance is high.
- IFK Norrkoping average 1.0 first-half goals per game overall.
- Falkenbergs average 0.9 first-half goals per game overall.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.9, but both teams' first-half scoring can be inconsistent.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, making over 1.5 second-half goals a solid prediction.
- IFK Norrkoping score 0.8 goals per second half on average (1.8 total - 1.0 first half).
- Falkenbergs score 1.4 goals per second half on average (2.3 total - 0.9 first half).
- Combined second-half goal average is 2.2, indicating a strong likelihood of over 1.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, but the total may fall short of 10 on average.
- IFK Norrkoping average 4.3 corners per game overall.
- Falkenbergs average 4.7 corners per game overall.
- Combined average is 9.0 corners, but recent matches show variability.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average slightly exceeds 8.5, but the sample size is small.
- IFK Norrkoping average 4.4 shots on target per game.
- Falkenbergs average 4.8 shots on target per game.
- Combined average is 9.2 shots on target, but data is limited.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Card data is sparse, but the competitive nature of the match could push the total over 3.5.
- IFK Norrkoping average 2.0 yellow cards per game.
- Falkenbergs average 0.7 yellow cards per game, but data is incomplete.
- Combined average is 2.7, but recent matches have seen higher card counts.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance45%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 51.3% vs our 45% estimate; the price is too short for a first-half lead given IFK's tendency to draw at half-time.

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

L1-0Falkenbergs FFvIFK NorrkopingMay 5, 2026SUP

W4-1IFK NorrkopingvFalkenbergs FFNov 23, 2020ALL

D3-3Falkenbergs FFvIFK NorrkopingJul 26, 2020ALL

W1-0IFK NorrkopingvFalkenbergs FFMar 7, 2020SVE

W0-2Falkenbergs FFvIFK NorrkopingSep 29, 2019ALL

IFK Norrkoping: 2 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

League Table

Superettan 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	IFK Norrkoping Promotion	19	13	2	4	36-11	41	WWWWW
2	Falkenbergs Promotion	19	10	5	4	36-27	35	WDLWL

6pt gap between teamsIFK Norrkoping leads the league

Recent Form

IFK Norrkoping

W4-1SandvikenAug 15SUP

W3-0IK brageAug 8SUP

W2-0HelsingborgAug 1SUP

W1-0Landskrona BoISJul 28SUP

W3-0SandvikenJul 19SUP

L0-1Norrby IFJun 28SUP

W2-0Ostersunds FKJun 21SUP

W2-0Varbergs BoIS FCJun 15SUP

W2-1OddevoldJun 9SUP

W2-0HelsingborgMay 31SUP

W2-0Osters IFMay 25SUP

D0-0IK brageMay 16SUP

D1-1United NordicMay 13SUP

W3-1GIF SundsvallMay 9SUP

L0-1Falkenbergs FFMay 5SUP

Falkenbergs

W2-0Norrby IFAug 15SUP

D1-1United NordicAug 8SUP

L1-2Varbergs BoIS FCAug 1SUP

W2-1GIF SundsvallJul 26SUP

L2-3HelsingborgJul 21SUP

W6-0LaholmJul 17FRI

L1-2Landskrona BoISJul 11FRI

W4-2IK brageJun 26SUP

W3-1Osters IFJun 21SUP

D1-1Orebro SKJun 14SUP

L2-4SandvikenJun 9SUP

W2-1OddevoldMay 30SUP

W3-1IFK VarnamoMay 23SUP

W4-1United NordicMay 17SUP

L0-3Varbergs BoIS FCMay 13SUP

Squad & Injuries

IFK Norrkoping

31 available

Attackers8

Midfielders11

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Falkenbergs

28 available

Attackers7

Midfielders6

Defenders10

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

IFK Norrkoping

IFK Norrkoping or Draw

Over 1.5

IFK Norrkoping at half-time / IFK Norrkoping at full-time

Over 2.5

Yes

Result4 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 2.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

IFK Norrkoping

Falkenbergs

Squad & Injuries

IFK Norrkoping

Falkenbergs