A LygaFull time

Predictions graded

Suduva Marijampole2FK Panevezys0

HT 0–0Sun 23 Aug 2026, 15:45 Predictions graded

Predictions3–633%

Edges2–529%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 04:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Sūduva are strong favourites at home and motivated to extend their title lead, but the 1.50 win odds offer no value.

The best value lies in the half-time/full-time home/home at 3.40 (+9 point edge) or the double chance home/draw at 1.18 (+3 points). Avoid the away win and over 4.5 goals markets.

Context

Official table on 23 August has Sūduva first on 39 points, one above Kauno Žalgiris.
- A win would create a four-point cushion before Kauno Žalgiris' next fixture.
- Sūduva have won their last three league matches, showing they are in form to chase the title.
Panevėžys have 23 points from 23 matches, one point above eighth-placed Hegelmann.
- They have lost 9 of 12 away matches this season, conceding 27 goals.
- They have not beaten Sūduva in three meetings this season (0W 1D 2L).
Home record: 6W 5D 0L, 16 goals scored, 6 conceded.
- They have won their last three league matches, scoring 10 goals.
- They have kept five clean sheets at home this season.
Away record: 3W 0D 9L, 9 goals scored, 27 conceded.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 away matches.
- They have conceded 3+ goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Suduva Marijampole

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Suduva are unbeaten at home this season (6W 5D) and have won their last 3 league matches, while Panevezys have lost 9 of 12 away games.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Suduva's strong home form, title motivation, and H2H dominance over a poor away side make them clear favorites.
- Suduva are unbeaten at home this season: 6W 5D 0L, 16 goals scored, 6 conceded in 11 home matches.
- Suduva have won their last 3 league matches, scoring 10 goals and conceding 1.
- Panevezys have lost 9 of 12 away matches, conceding 27 goals (2.25 per game).
- H2H this season: Suduva unbeaten in 3 meetings (2W 1D), including a 2-1 away win in June.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSuduva MarijampoleEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Suduva's unbeaten home record with Panevezys' poor away form and H2H struggles strongly supports the double chance.
- Suduva have not lost at home this season (6W 5D).
- Panevezys have only 3 away wins in 12 attempts.
- H2H: Panevezys have not beaten Suduva in 2026 (0W 1D 2L).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSuduva Marijampole or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Suduva's tendency to start strong at home and Panevezys' early defensive issues support a home lead at the break.
- Suduva lead at halftime in 40% of matches overall.
- Panevezys trail at halftime in 47% of matches overall.
- Suduva have scored first-half goals in 6 of their last 10 matches.
- Panevezys have conceded first-half goals in 8 of their last 10 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSuduva MarijampoleEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win with a halftime lead is plausible given Suduva's dominance and Panevezys' poor away record.
- Suduva have led at halftime and won the match in 4 of their last 10 matches.
- Panevezys have trailed at halftime and lost the match in 5 of their last 10 matches.
- Suduva are unbeaten at home and have won 6 of 11 home matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostSuduva Marijampole/Suduva MarijampoleEstimated chance38%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Panevezys' leaky away defense and Suduva's recent scoring form tilt the match towards goals.
- Suduva's home matches average 2.0 total goals (16 scored + 6 conceded in 11 games).
- Panevezys' away matches average 3.0 total goals (9 scored + 27 conceded in 12 games).
- Suduva have scored 10 goals in their last 3 matches.
- Panevezys have conceded 3+ goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score, and Panevezys' defensive frailty away from home increases the chance of both finding the net.
- Suduva have scored in 10 of 11 home matches this season.
- Panevezys have scored in 7 of 12 away matches.
- Panevezys have conceded in 11 of 12 away matches.
- H2H: Both teams scored in the most recent meeting (2-1).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Suduva's solid home defense and Panevezys' inconsistent away scoring give a reasonable chance of a home clean sheet.
- Suduva have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 home matches.
- Panevezys have failed to score in 5 of 12 away matches.
- Suduva have conceded only 6 goals at home all season.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFK Panevezys not to scoreEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, especially with Panevezys' early defensive lapses.
- Suduva average 0.8 first-half goals per match overall.
- Panevezys average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match.
- In H2H this season, 2 of 3 matches had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second half often opens up as Panevezys chase the game, leading to more goals.
- Suduva average 1.0 second-half goals per match (1.8 total - 0.8 first half).
- Panevezys average 0.6 second-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match.
- Panevezys' away matches average 3.0 total goals, with many coming after halftime.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without corner statistics, this is a speculative call based on expected attacking dominance by the home side.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in the provided dataset.
- Suduva's attacking style at home likely generates corners, but no numeric evidence is available.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 85% leaves no cushion vs our 88% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

W1-2PanevėžysvSuduva MarijampoleJun 29, 2026A L

W1-0Suduva MarijampolevPanevėžysApr 25, 2026A L

D0-0PanevėžysvSuduva MarijampoleFeb 22, 2026A L

L0-2Suduva MarijampolevPanevėžysSep 16, 2025CUP

D1-1Suduva MarijampolevPanevėžysSep 12, 2025A L

Suduva Marijampole: 2 clean sheetsFK Panevezys: 2 clean sheets1.6 goals/game avg

League Table

A Lyga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	Suduva Marijampole	22	10	9	3	31-17	39	WWWDW
7	FK Panevezys	23	6	5	12	21-39	23	LWDLD

16pt gap between teamsSuduva Marijampole leads the league

Recent Form

Suduva Marijampole

W2-0Džiugas TelšiaiAug 17A L

W3-0BangaAug 9A L

W5-1Hegelmann LitauenJul 20A L

D0-0TransINVEST VilniusJul 6A L

W2-1PanevėžysJun 29A L

W2-1Džiugas TelšiaiJun 21A L

W2-1ŠiauliaiJun 16A L

D0-0BangaJun 13A L

W3-0FK TrakaiMay 29A L

W2-1Kauno ŽalgirisMay 23A L

D2-2Hegelmann LitauenMay 16A L

D1-1FK Zalgiris VilniusMay 10A L

D1-1TransINVEST VilniusMay 6A L

L1-2ŠiauliaiMay 2A L

W1-0PanevėžysApr 25A L

FK Panevezys

L0-1ŠiauliaiAug 17A L

W2-0TransINVEST VilniusAug 10A L

D1-1Džiugas TelšiaiAug 3A L

D1-1FK Tobol KostanayJul 23UEF

L0-3Kauno ŽalgirisJul 11A L

D1-1Hegelmann LitauenJul 4A L

L1-2Suduva MarijampoleJun 29A L

L1-2MinijaJun 23CUP

W3-2ŠiauliaiJun 20A L

L0-3FK Zalgiris VilniusJun 16A L

L1-2TransINVEST VilniusJun 12A L

L0-4Džiugas TelšiaiMay 30A L

W1-0BangaMay 24A L

W3-0AtmosferaMay 20CUP

D1-1Kauno ŽalgirisMay 10A L

Squad & Injuries

Suduva Marijampole

28 available

Attackers9

Midfielders8

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

FK Panevezys

31 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Suduva Marijampole2FK Panevezys0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Suduva Marijampole or Draw

Suduva Marijampole at half-time / Suduva Marijampole at full-time

Suduva Marijampole

Suduva Marijampole

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals1 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

FK Panevezys

Over 4.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Suduva Marijampole

FK Panevezys

Squad & Injuries

Suduva Marijampole

FK Panevezys