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Predictions graded

Radnik Surdulica1FK Novi Pazar0

HT 1–0Sun 23 Aug 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 45%–55%ShotsShots 17–12On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 7–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Aug 2026, 00:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Radnik's home H2H dominance and Novi Pazar's away scoring drought point to a low-scoring home win, but the odds on Radnik and the double chance are too short.

The only value lies in 'No' for Both Teams to Score and Under 2.5 goals. Avoid first-half markets and note the kickoff time discrepancy.

Context

0 goals scored in 2 away Super Liga matches this season.
- Lost 2-0 at FK Crvena Zvezda and drew 0-0 at Mladost Lucani.
- Averaging 0.0 goals per away match.
2-0 home win on 22 Apr 2026.
- 1-0 home win on 21 Dec 2025.
- Novi Pazar failed to score in both matches.
Beat Macva 2-1 at home on 15 Aug 2026.
- Drew 1-1 with Mladost Lucani at home on 19 Jul 2026.
- Home record: 1W 1D 0L.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Radnik Surdulica or Draw

1.22fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Radnik's home solidity and Novi Pazar's away struggles make the double chance highly likely, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Radnik Surdulica

1.85fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 54%

0.0ppshort

Radnik's strong home H2H dominance and Novi Pazar's poor away scoring record give the hosts a clear edge, but the odds are too short to offer value.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.35fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average low first-half scoring, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Radnik's strong home H2H dominance and Novi Pazar's poor away scoring record give the hosts a clear edge.
- Radnik won last two home H2Hs vs Novi Pazar (2-0, 1-0) without conceding.
- Radnik home record this season: 1W 1D 0L, 3 goals scored, 2 conceded.
- Novi Pazar away record this season: 0W 1D 1L, 0 goals scored, 2 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRadnik SurdulicaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Radnik's home solidity and Novi Pazar's away struggles make the double chance highly likely.
- Radnik unbeaten at home this season (1W 1D).
- Novi Pazar winless away this season (0W 1D 1L).
- Radnik won last two home H2Hs.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonRadnik Surdulica or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring and high draw probability at the break.
- Radnik leading at half time in 33% of matches, trailing 20%.
- Novi Pazar leading at half time in 20%, trailing 47%.
- Both teams average 0.5 first half goals, suggesting tight first halves.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half and full time is possible given both teams' tendency to start slowly, but low confidence due to limited data.
- Radnik draws at half time in 47% of matches (derived from 33% lead, 20% trail).
- Novi Pazar draws at half time in 33% of matches (derived from 20% lead, 47% trail).
- Overall draw probability for match is around 30%.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Novi Pazar's away scoring drought and Radnik's H2H defensive record suggest at least one team fails to score.
- Novi Pazar failed to score in both away league matches this season.
- Radnik kept clean sheets in last two home H2Hs vs Novi Pazar.
- Radnik conceded in 3 of 4 league matches this season, but Novi Pazar's away attack is weak.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Low-scoring trend in H2H and Novi Pazar's away offensive struggles point to under 2.5 goals.
- Radnik home league matches averaged 2.5 goals (3 scored, 2 conceded in 2 games).
- Novi Pazar away league matches averaged 1.0 goal (0 scored, 2 conceded in 2 games).
- Last two H2Hs at Radnik ended 1-0 and 2-0.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
H2H and away form support a Radnik clean sheet, but their overall defensive inconsistency lowers confidence.
- Radnik kept clean sheets in last two home H2Hs vs Novi Pazar.
- Novi Pazar failed to score in both away league matches this season.
- Radnik conceded in 3 of 4 league matches overall.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFK Novi Pazar not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average low first-half scoring, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Radnik first half goals per match: 0.5 (last 15).
- Novi Pazar first half goals per match: 0.5 (last 15).
- Combined first half goals average 1.0, with both teams scoring in first half only occasionally.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Low overall scoring trends extend to second half, supporting under 1.5 second-half goals.
- Radnik second half goals per match: 0.5 (derived from total 1.0 and first half 0.5).
- Novi Pazar second half goals per match: 0.4 (derived from total 0.9 and first half 0.5).
- H2H matches at Radnik had only 1 and 2 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate corner counts, and combined averages suggest under 9.5 corners.
- Radnik average corners per match: 3.9, opponent corners: 4.5 (total ~8.4).
- Novi Pazar average corners per match: 3.7, opponent corners: 5.3 (total ~9.0).
- Combined average corners in matches involving these teams: ~8.7.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate shot accuracy, and combined averages point to under 8.5 shots on target.
- Radnik average shots on target per match: 3.9, opponent: 4.1 (total ~8.0).
- Novi Pazar average shots on target per match: 4.5, opponent: 4.7 (total ~9.2).
- Combined average shots on target in matches involving these teams: ~8.6.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate disciplinary records, and combined averages suggest over 4.5 cards.
- Radnik average yellow cards per match: 3.2, opponent: 1.9 (total ~5.1).
- Novi Pazar average yellow cards per match: 2.2, opponent: 2.3 (total ~4.5).
- Combined average cards in matches involving these teams: ~4.8.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 82% leaves no cushion vs our 72% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

3W · 0D · 2W

W0-1Novi PazarvRadnik SurdulicaJul 9, 2026FRI

W2-0Radnik SurdulicavNovi PazarApr 22, 2026SUP

W1-0Radnik SurdulicavNovi PazarDec 21, 2025SUP

L2-0Novi PazarvRadnik SurdulicaAug 16, 2025SUP

L1-4Radnik SurdulicavNovi PazarApr 27, 2024SUP

Radnik Surdulica: 3 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Super Liga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Radnik Surdulica Mozzart Bet Super Liga (Relegation Group)	4	1	2	1	4-4	5	WLDD
6	FK Novi Pazar Promotion - Mozzart Bet Super Liga (Championship Group)	5	2	1	2	4-6	7	WLLDW

2pt gap between teamsRadnik Surdulica in relegation zone

Recent Form

Radnik Surdulica

W2-1MacvaAug 15SUP

L1-2VojvodinaAug 9SUP

D0-0OFK BeogradJul 25SUP

D1-1Mladost LucaniJul 19SUP

W1-0Novi PazarJul 9FRI

W3-1Buducnost PodgoricaJul 4FRI

L0-5Levski SofiaJun 30FRI

L0-5FK PartizanMay 23SUP

D0-0FK Crvena ZvezdaMay 17SUP

D1-1Železničar PančevoMay 9SUP

L1-4VojvodinaMay 4SUP

D1-1OFK BeogradApr 26SUP

W2-0Novi PazarApr 22SUP

D2-2CukarickiApr 18SUP

D0-0OFK BeogradApr 9SUP

FK Novi Pazar

W2-0VojvodinaAug 17SUP

L0-2FK Crvena ZvezdaAug 8SUP

L1-4OFK BeogradAug 1SUP

D0-0Mladost LucaniJul 26SUP

W1-0Radnicki 1923Jul 18SUP

L0-1Radnik SurdulicaJul 9FRI

D1-1AkhmatJul 4FRI

L1-2MacvaJul 1FRI

L1-3Mladost LucaniJun 28FRI

L0-3VojvodinaMay 23SUP

D2-2Železničar PančevoMay 17SUP

W2-1FK Crvena ZvezdaMay 9SUP

L1-2FK PartizanMay 2SUP

D2-2CukarickiApr 26SUP

L0-2Radnik SurdulicaApr 22SUP

Squad & Injuries

Radnik Surdulica

27 available

Attackers7

Midfielders7

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

FK Novi Pazar

30 available

Attackers5

Midfielders13

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

Under 2.5

Radnik Surdulica or Draw

Radnik Surdulica

Draw

Under 1.5

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals5 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Radnik Surdulica or Draw

Under 1.5

Under 9.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Radnik Surdulica

FK Novi Pazar

Squad & Injuries

Radnik Surdulica

FK Novi Pazar