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Predictions graded

Los Angeles FC1Portland Timbers1

HT 0–1Sun 23 Aug 2026, 02:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges3–350%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Aug 2026, 17:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Portland's unbeaten run in the last three H2H meetings makes LAFC's 1.50 home win price poor value (our 45% vs implied 67%).

The only positive edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 1.88, but it's marginal; avoid the heavily juiced LAFC and Over 2.5 markets.

Context

Portland won 2-1 at home in April 2026.
- Portland won 1-0 at LAFC in July 2025.
- The teams drew 3-3 in April 2025.
LAFC home record: 7 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses.
- LAFC lost 0-1 at home to San Diego on August 16, 2026.
- LAFC have won 4 of their last 5 home matches before that loss.
Portland away record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 7 losses.
- Portland won 5-1 at Seattle Sounders on July 17, 2026.
- Portland lost 1-2 at Chicago Fire in their most recent away match.
Portland official preview quotes Savarese on urgency.
- Portland have won 4 and drawn 1 of their last 5 matches in all competitions.
- Savarese's comments indicate a focus on continuing momentum.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Los Angeles FC

1.50fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

LAFC's strong home form is offset by Portland's unbeaten run in the last three meetings, leaving the home win probability below the market's implied level.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Los Angeles FC or Draw

1.15fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 87%

−12.0ppshort

LAFC's home strength and Portland's poor away record make a home win or draw highly likely, but the market price already reflects that probability.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.48fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding in their respective home/away splits, but the odds are slightly below our estimated probability.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.17fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 85.5%

0.0ppshort

Portland's tendency to trail at half-time and both teams' first-half scoring rates suggest at least one first-half goal is likely, but the odds are extremely short.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
LAFC's strong home form and superior season-long performance outweigh Portland's recent H2H edge, but Portland's unbeaten run in the last three meetings keeps confidence at MEDIUM.
- LAFC home record: 7W-1D-3L, 22 goals for, 10 against in 11 home matches
- Portland away record: 2W-1D-7L, 14 goals for, 20 against in 10 away matches
- LAFC overall points: 34 vs Portland 24; LAFC rank 3rd, Portland 10th in West
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLos Angeles FCEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
LAFC's strong home form and Portland's poor away record make a home win or draw highly likely, supported by the structural home/away edge.
- LAFC home record: 7W-1D-3L, 22 goals for, 10 against in 11 home matches
- Portland away record: 2W-1D-7L, 14 goals for, 20 against in 10 away matches
- LAFC overall points: 34 vs Portland 24; LAFC rank 3rd, Portland 10th in West
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLos Angeles FC or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
LAFC's home first-half defensive strength and Portland's tendency to trail at half-time give LAFC a slight edge, but the margin is narrow.
- LAFC leading at half-time in 40% of matches overall; Portland trailing at half-time in 53%
- LAFC first-half goals at home: 0.9; Portland first-half goals conceded away: 1.3
- Portland first-half goals away: 1.0; LAFC first-half goals conceded at home: 0.4
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonLos Angeles FCEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
LAFC's superior second-half performance at home and overall goal difference suggest they are more likely to win the second half, but confidence is low due to variability.
- LAFC home second-half goal difference: +0.8 (1.6 for, 0.8 against)
- Portland away second-half goal difference: -0.2 (1.1 for, 1.3 against)
- LAFC overall goal difference +15 vs Portland -1
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostLos Angeles FCEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
LAFC's home dominance and Portland's away struggles make HT/FT LAFC/LAFC possible, but the probability is modest.
- LAFC leading at half-time in 40% of matches; Portland trailing at half-time in 53%
- LAFC home win rate: 64%; Portland away loss rate: 70%
- Combined probability of LAFC leading at HT and winning FT: approximately 25%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostLos Angeles FC/Los Angeles FCEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits and recent H2H meetings show a tendency for multiple goals, supporting Over 2.5.
- LAFC home matches average 2.9 total goals (22 for, 10 against in 11 games)
- Portland away matches average 3.4 total goals (14 for, 20 against in 10 games)
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 3, 1, 4, 6, 1 goals (avg 3.0)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS likely.
- LAFC home matches: scored in 9 of 11, conceded in 7 of 11
- Portland away matches: scored in 8 of 10, conceded in 9 of 10
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 3 of 5
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Portland's tendency to trail at half-time and both teams' first-half scoring rates suggest at least one first-half goal is likely.
- LAFC first-half goals at home: 0.9 per match; first-half goals conceded at home: 0.4
- Portland first-half goals away: 1.0 per match; first-half goals conceded away: 1.3
- Portland trailing at half-time in 53% of matches overall
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined second-half scoring rates from home/away splits are close to the Over 1.5 line, giving a slight edge to Over.
- LAFC home matches average 2.9 total goals; first-half average 1.3, implying second-half average 1.6
- Portland away matches average 3.4 total goals; first-half average 2.3, implying second-half average 1.1
- Combined second-half average from splits: approximately 1.35
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average corners from both teams' splits slightly exceed the Over 9.5 line, but the margin is small and confidence is low.
- LAFC average corners per match: 5.1; Portland average corners per match: 5.6
- LAFC home matches average corners: 5.5; Portland away matches average corners: 5.2
- Combined average corners: 10.7
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average shots on target from both teams' splits exceed the Over 8.5 line, giving a slight edge to Over.
- LAFC average shots on target per match: 4.0; Portland average shots on target per match: 5.0
- LAFC home matches average shots on target: 4.5; Portland away matches average shots on target: 4.8
- Combined average shots on target: 9.3
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average yellow cards from both teams' splits are right at the Over 3.5 line, making this a coin flip.
- LAFC average yellow cards per match: 1.8; Portland average yellow cards per match: 1.6
- LAFC home matches average yellow cards: 1.9; Portland away matches average yellow cards: 1.7
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.6
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 67% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Los Angeles FC has been highly reliable when projected for over 2.5 goals

Los Angeles FC has fulfilled 4 of 5 over 2.5 goals projections. The average estimated probability was 60%, with an expected 3 fulfilled predictions, so the actual 4 fulfilled predictions exceeded expectation. Matched projections averaged 61.3% probability, while the single missed projection was at 55%, indicating stronger confidence in successful outcomes.

Recent evidence for Los Angeles FC5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Major League Soccer