VeikkausliigaFull time

Predictions graded

KuPS2IFK Mariehamn4

HT 1–3Sun 23 Aug 2026, 12:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–722%

Edges2–722%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Aug 2026, 17:11 · Europe/Bucharest

KuPS are strong favourites at home against a woeful IFK Mariehamn side, but the odds on a home win, double chance, and over 2.5 goals offer no value.

The best betting edge is on 'Both Teams to Score – No' at 1.85, with a 10.9-point edge over the implied probability, supported by IFK Mariehamn's away scoring struggles and KuPS's home clean sheet record.

Context

IFK Mariehamn have failed to score in 8 of their last 10 away matches.
- They average 0.4 goals per away match this season.
- KuPS have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 home league matches.
KuPS home record: 6 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses.
- The reverse fixture in May ended 1-1.
- KuPS drew 1-1 with Turku PS at home on 9 August.
KuPS beat IFK Mariehamn 4-1 at home in April 2025.
- KuPS beat IFK Mariehamn 3-0 at home in August 2024.
- The most recent meeting was a 1-1 draw in May 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

KuPS

1.22fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

KuPS are unbeaten at home (6W 4D) and IFK Mariehamn have zero away wins in 10, but the price already reflects that dominance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

KuPS or Draw

1.06fair 1.09

BetBugs 92% · Market 94%

−2.0ppshort

KuPS's home invincibility and IFK Mariehamn's away winless run make a home win or draw extremely likely, but the odds offer no value.

Asian HandicaplostUncertainty band: Slight lean

KuPS -1.5

1.60fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 63%

−8.0ppshort

KuPS's ability to win by multiple goals at home and IFK Mariehamn's heavy away defeats support a -1.5 handicap, but the price is too short.

1 St Half ResultlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

KuPS

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 65%

0.0ppshort

KuPS's tendency to start strongly and IFK Mariehamn's poor first-half record support a KuPS half-time lead, but the odds are too short.

HT/FTlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

KuPS at half-time / KuPS at full-time

1.65fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 61%

−11.0ppshort

KuPS's pattern of leading at half-time and converting to wins, against a team that rarely recovers, supports HT/FT KuPS/KuPS, but the price is too short.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The massive gap in league position, home form, and goal difference makes KuPS clear favourites, driven by motivation and structural home edge.
- KuPS are 1st with 43 points, unbeaten at home (6W 4D 0L), while IFK Mariehamn are 12th with 8 points and 0 away wins in 10.
- KuPS have won 4 of their last 5 league matches; IFK Mariehamn have lost 4 of their last 5.
- KuPS average 1.7 goals scored vs 1.0 conceded; IFK Mariehamn average 0.5 scored vs 2.2 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKuPSEstimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
KuPS's home invincibility and IFK Mariehamn's away winless record make a KuPS win or draw extremely likely.
- KuPS are unbeaten at home this season (6W 4D).
- IFK Mariehamn have not won away in 10 attempts.
- KuPS have lost only once in 20 league matches overall.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostKuPS or DrawEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
KuPS's ability to win by multiple goals at home, combined with IFK Mariehamn's heavy away defeats, supports a -1.5 handicap.
- KuPS won the last home H2H 4-1 and 3-0.
- IFK Mariehamn have lost 9 of 10 away matches, with 7 losses by 2+ goals.
- KuPS average +0.7 goal difference at home; IFK Mariehamn average -2.0 away.
BetBugs · Asian HandicaplostKuPS -1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
KuPS's tendency to start strongly and IFK Mariehamn's poor first-half record support a KuPS half-time lead.
- KuPS led at half-time in 60% of their matches this season.
- IFK Mariehamn trailed at half-time in 60% of their matches.
- KuPS average 1.1 first-half goals vs 0.4 conceded; IFK Mariehamn average 0.2 scored vs 1.0 conceded.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostKuPSEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
KuPS's pattern of leading at half-time and converting to wins, against a team that rarely recovers, supports HT/FT KuPS/KuPS.
- KuPS led at half-time in 60% of matches and won 75% of those.
- IFK Mariehamn trailed at half-time in 60% of matches and lost 90% of those.
- KuPS are unbeaten at home; IFK Mariehamn have no away wins.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostKuPS/KuPSEstimated chance50%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
KuPS's strong attack against the league's leakiest away defence supports over 2.5 goals, with tactical mismatch likely to produce chances.
- KuPS home matches average 2.9 total goals (19 scored, 10 conceded in 10).
- IFK Mariehamn away matches average 2.8 total goals (4 scored, 24 conceded in 10).
- KuPS have scored 2+ goals in 5 of their last 6 league matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IFK Mariehamn's away scoring futility and KuPS's solid home defence make a KuPS clean sheet likely, so both teams scoring is unlikely.
- IFK Mariehamn have failed to score in 8 of their last 10 away matches.
- KuPS have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 home league matches.
- IFK Mariehamn average only 0.4 goals per away match.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
IFK Mariehamn's away scoring struggles and KuPS's defensive solidity at home support a home clean sheet.
- KuPS have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 home league matches.
- IFK Mariehamn have failed to score in 8 of their last 10 away matches.
- IFK Mariehamn average 0.4 goals per away match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostIFK Mariehamn not to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
KuPS's strong first-half scoring and IFK Mariehamn's early defensive vulnerability make a first-half goal likely.
- KuPS average 1.1 first-half goals per match, with 60% leading at half-time.
- IFK Mariehamn concede an average of 1.0 first-half goals per match.
- In the last H2H, the first half ended 1-1.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner averages and the recent H2H suggest a moderately high corner count, though data is limited.
- KuPS average 4.4 corners per match; IFK Mariehamn average 4.7 corners per match.
- Combined average corners in KuPS matches: 8.8; in IFK Mariehamn matches: 9.4.
- In the last H2H, total corners were 10.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
KuPS's attacking volume and IFK Mariehamn's defensive struggles could push total shots on target above 8.5, but evidence is moderate.
- KuPS average 3.6 shots on target per match; IFK Mariehamn average 2.3.
- KuPS home matches see an average of 7.2 shots on target combined.
- IFK Mariehamn away matches see an average of 6.4 shots on target combined.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' card averages suggest a moderate total, but the low recent H2H card count makes this a low-confidence lean.
- KuPS average 1.8 yellow cards per match; IFK Mariehamn average 1.8.
- Combined average cards in KuPS matches: 3.6; in IFK Mariehamn matches: 3.6.
- Recent H2H had 2 yellow cards total.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 82% leaves no cushion vs our 75% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

D1-1MariehamnvKuPSMay 16, 2026VEI

W2-0KuPSvMariehamnMar 14, 2026FRI

L1-0MariehamnvKuPSJun 18, 2025VEI

W4-1KuPSvMariehamnApr 23, 2025VEI

W3-0KuPSvMariehamnAug 25, 2024VEI

KuPS: 2 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Veikkausliiga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	KuPS Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)	20	12	7	1	36-18	43	WDWWW
12	IFK Mariehamn Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)	20	1	5	14	11-41	8	WLLDL

35pt gap between teamsKuPS leads the leagueIFK Mariehamn in relegation zone

Recent Form

KuPS

W2-1LahtiAug 16VEI

L1-2Universitatea CraiovaAug 13UEF

D1-1Turku PSAug 9VEI

D1-1Universitatea CraiovaAug 6UEF

W1-0GnistanAug 1VEI

L0-2Sabah FAJul 28UEF

W3-1VPSJul 25VEI

L0-1Sabah FAJul 21UEF

W2-0SJKJul 18VEI

W2-0Vardar SkopjeJul 7UEF

W4-0HJK HelsinkiJun 27VEI

W4-3IlvesJun 23VEI

W2-1Turku PSJun 17VEI

D1-1VPSJun 13VEI

D1-1Inter TurkuMay 30VEI

IFK Mariehamn

L0-2LahtiJul 20VEI

L2-4GnistanJul 11VEI

L0-4VPSJul 4VEI

L0-2Inter TurkuJun 27VEI

L0-4HJK HelsinkiJun 23VEI

L1-2AC OuluJun 18VEI

L0-3GnistanJun 13VEI

L0-1HJK HelsinkiMay 30VEI

L0-1LahtiMay 26SUO

L0-3FF JaroMay 23VEI

D1-1KuPSMay 16VEI

Squad & Injuries

KuPS

50 available

Attackers11

Midfielders17

Defenders16

Goalkeeper6

IFK Mariehamn

31 available

Attackers5

Midfielders12

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

IFK Mariehamn not to score

KuPS

KuPS or Draw

KuPS -1.5

KuPS

KuPS at half-time / KuPS at full-time

Over 2.5

Over 0.5

Result0 of 5 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

KuPS

KuPS or Draw

Over 2.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

KuPS

IFK Mariehamn

Squad & Injuries

KuPS

IFK Mariehamn