HNLFull time

Predictions graded

HNK Rijeka3Istra 19612

HT 2–0Sun 23 Aug 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions9–375%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 59%–41%ShotsShots 14–11On targetOn target 8–3CornersCorners 6–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Aug 2026, 17:22 · Europe/Bucharest

The market heavily favours HNK Rijeka, but the model sees a much closer contest, with negative value on Rijeka win and double chance.

The only positive edge is Both Teams to Score Yes at 1.91, with a +2.6 point edge. Corner and card markets are unavailable, and small sample sizes add uncertainty.

Context

Last 5 H2H: Rijeka 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses.
- Istra won 2-0 at Rijeka on 15 March 2026.
- Most recent meeting ended 0-0 on 17 May 2026.
Rijeka home record this season: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses, 2 goals for, 1 against.
- In that match, they beat Rudes 2-1 on 2 August 2026.
- Across all competitions, Rijeka average 0.5 goals conceded per game.
Istra scored in 4 of last 5 HNL matches.
- Away this season: 0 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, 2 goals for, 2 against.
- Istra average 1.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match overall.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

HNK Rijeka or Draw

1.10fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

The predictor's 75% estimate is actually below the 90.9% implied by the odds, so this is a negative-value bet despite the high confidence.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

HNK Rijeka

1.36fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

The predictor's 45% estimate is far below the 73.5% implied by the odds, indicating the market may be overrating Rijeka.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score early, especially Istra, making a first-half goal likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
HNK Rijeka's strong home form and Istra's mediocre away record give them a slight edge, but recent H2H shows Istra can frustrate them, so confidence is medium.
- HNK Rijeka home record this season: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses (2 goals for, 1 against)
- Istra 1961 away record this season: 0 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses (2 goals for, 2 against)
- HNK Rijeka last 5 HNL matches: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; Istra 1961 last 5 HNL: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses
- H2H last 5: HNK Rijeka 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses (as away team in 3 of those)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHNK RijekaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
HNK Rijeka are unbeaten at home this season and Istra have not won away, making a home win or draw highly likely.
- HNK Rijeka home record this season: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses
- Istra 1961 away record this season: 0 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses
- H2H last 5: 3 draws or HNK Rijeka wins (1 win, 2 draws)
- HNK Rijeka lost only 1 of last 5 HNL matches at home (included in form)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHNK Rijeka or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams are strong in first halves, making a draw at the break a plausible outcome.
- HNK Rijeka leading at half time in 60% of matches (all comps)
- Istra 1961 leading at half time in 50% of matches (all comps)
- H2H last 5: 2 draws at half time
- Both teams have similar first half goal averages
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a HNK Rijeka win is possible given their second-half strength, but evidence is limited.
- HNK Rijeka often win after drawing at half time (2 of last 5 HNL matches)
- Istra 1961 have drawn at half time in 2 of last 5 HNL matches
- H2H last 5: no exact pattern of draw/win for HNK Rijeka
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / HNK RijekaEstimated chance20%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Istra's attacking output and leaky defense suggest goals, but HNK Rijeka's solid defense at home tempers the expectation, hence medium confidence.
- HNK Rijeka average goals per match (all comps): 1.5 for, 0.5 against
- Istra 1961 average goals per match (all comps): 1.9 for, 1.3 against
- Istra 1961 last 5 HNL matches: 3 over 2.5 goals
- HNK Rijeka last 5 HNL matches: 2 over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Istra's consistent scoring and HNK Rijeka's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring plausible.
- Istra 1961 scored in 4 of last 5 HNL matches
- HNK Rijeka conceded in 2 of last 5 HNL matches
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 2 matches
- Istra 1961 average goals conceded away: 2.0 per match (this season)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score early, especially Istra, making a first-half goal likely.
- HNK Rijeka first half goals average: 0.7 per match
- Istra 1961 first half goals average: 1.1 per match
- Istra 1961 scored in first half in 4 of last 5 HNL matches
- HNK Rijeka conceded first half goal in 1 of last 5 HNL matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second half scoring is less predictable, but combined averages suggest a moderate chance of over 1.5 goals.
- HNK Rijeka second half goals average: 0.8 per match (derived from total - first half)
- Istra 1961 second half goals average: 0.8 per match
- Combined second half average: 1.6 goals
- H2H last 5: second half goals in 3 matches exceeded 1.5
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a decent number of corners, and their combined average suggests over 9.5 corners is likely.
- HNK Rijeka average corners per match: 6.1
- Istra 1961 average corners per match: 5.3
- Combined average corners: 11.4
- H2H last 5: total corners in 3 matches exceeded 9.5
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
HNK Rijeka's corner count at home is consistently above 5.5, making this a solid bet.
- HNK Rijeka average corners per match: 6.1
- HNK Rijeka home corners in last 5 HNL matches: 7, 9, 7, 9, 1 (avg 6.6)
- Istra 1961 concede average corners away: 6.0 (from opponent corners in away matches)
BetBugs · Home CornerswonHNK Rijeka over 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Istra's away corner numbers are consistently above 3.5, and HNK Rijeka's home defense allows some corners.
- Istra 1961 average corners per match: 5.3
- Istra 1961 away corners in last 5 HNL matches: 5, 7, 3, 4, 5 (avg 4.8)
- HNK Rijeka concede average corners at home: 2.3 (from opponent corners in home matches)
BetBugs · Away CornerswonIstra 1961 over 3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Istra's higher card count and the competitive nature of the fixture suggest over 3.5 cards is likely.
- HNK Rijeka average yellow cards per match: 1.0
- Istra 1961 average yellow cards per match: 2.4
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.4
- H2H last 5: total cards in 3 matches exceeded 3.5
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 73.5% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

D0-0Istra 1961vHNK RijekaMay 17, 2026HNL

L0-2HNK RijekavIstra 1961Mar 15, 2026HNL

W1-2Istra 1961vHNK RijekaJan 20, 2026HNL

D0-0HNK RijekavIstra 1961Sep 27, 2025HNL

L2-0Istra 1961vHNK RijekaApr 19, 2025HNL

HNK Rijeka: 2 clean sheetsIstra 1961: 4 clean sheets1.4 goals/game avg

League Table

HNL 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	HNK Rijeka	2	1	0	1	2-3	3	LW
5	Istra 1961	3	1	1	1	7-5	4	WDL

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

HNK Rijeka

L0-2NK VarazdinAug 16HNL

D1-1IlvesAug 13UEF

W1-0IlvesAug 6UEF

W2-1RudesAug 2HNL

W1-0Derry CityJul 30UEF

W1-0Derry CityJul 23UEF

W2-0DekaniJul 16FRI

W2-0RadomljeJul 3FRI

W3-0Brinje-GrosupljeJun 30FRI

W2-1BravoJun 27FRI

W2-0HNK GoricaMay 23HNL

D0-0Istra 1961May 17HNL

L0-2Dinamo ZagrebMay 13CUP

W3-0VukovarMay 8HNL

W3-0NK Lokomotiva ZagrebMay 3HNL

Istra 1961

W3-0NK Slaven BelupoAug 15HNL

D2-2HNK Hajduk SplitAug 9HNL

L2-3NK Lokomotiva ZagrebAug 1HNL

D2-2LecceJul 25FRI

W5-2Orijent 1919Jul 21FRI

D2-2UdineseJul 18FRI

W2-1Milton Keynes DonsJul 17FRI

D1-1CeljeJul 11FRI

D2-2Uta AradJul 8FRI

W3-0OpatijaJul 3FRI

L0-2NK VarazdinMay 23HNL

D0-0HNK RijekaMay 17HNL

W1-0NK OsijekMay 10HNL

W3-1NK Slaven BelupoMay 4HNL

L0-1HNK GoricaApr 27HNL

Squad & Injuries

HNK Rijeka

33 available

Attackers6

Midfielders12

Defenders10

Goalkeeper5

Istra 1961

29 available

Attackers9

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3