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Predictions graded

Deportivo Maipu1Quilmes AC0

HT 0–0Sun 23 Aug 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–278%

Edges6–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Aug 2026, 17:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Deportivo Maipú are likely to win or draw at home against a poor-traveling Quilmes side, but the market offers little value on the main lines.

The best edge is avoiding the overpriced under 1.5 first-half goals (1.25) and under 2.5 goals (1.50) markets, while the home win at 2.30 carries only a marginal +1.5% edge.

Context

Last four H2H at Maipú: 2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 2-1.
- Quilmes scored only two goals across those four visits.
- The broader H2H series is balanced, so this is mainly a home-venue pattern.
Quilmes away record: 1W-4D-7L.
- They have scored 11 goals and conceded 16 in those 12 away games.
- Four away draws show they can grind out points, but wins are rare.
Maipú home record: 7W-2D-3L, 16 goals for, 9 against.
- Five of their seven home wins were by a single goal.
- They have kept clean sheets in 5 of 12 home games.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Deportivo Maipu or Draw

1.33fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 75.2%

−3.2ppshort

Quilmes' away win rate is just 8%, and Maipu are unbeaten in 75% of home games, making a Quilmes win unlikely, but the price is slightly short.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

1.95fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 51.3%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high half-time draw rates (Maipu 53%, Quilmes 60%), but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.50fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have moderate scoring rates and the H2H trend at this venue points to low-scoring affairs, making under 2.5 goals likely.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.70fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Quilmes' away scoring struggles and Maipu's solid home defense suggest at least one team will fail to score.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to be cautious early, with low first-half scoring rates, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Maipu's strong home form and Quilmes' poor away record, reinforced by venue-specific H2H dominance, make the home side the most likely winner.
- Deportivo Maipu home record: 7W-2D-3L, 16 goals for, 9 against in 12 matches
- Quilmes away record: 1W-4D-7L, 11 goals for, 16 against in 12 matches
- H2H at Maipu: Maipu unbeaten in last 4 home meetings (3W, 1D)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDeportivo MaipuEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Quilmes' away struggles and Maipu's home resilience make a Quilmes win unlikely, supporting the double chance for the home side.
- Maipu home unbeaten rate: 75% (9 of 12)
- Quilmes away win rate: 8% (1 of 12)
- H2H at Maipu: Quilmes have never won in last 4 visits
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDeportivo Maipu or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams frequently go into halftime level, making a first-half draw the most likely outcome.
- Maipu leading at halftime in 27% of matches, trailing in 20%
- Quilmes leading at halftime in 20%, trailing in 20%
- Both teams have high draw rates at halftime (Maipu 53%, Quilmes 60%)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A full-time draw is plausible given Quilmes' away draws, but the low probability reflects the rarity of both halves ending level.
- Maipu home draw rate: 17% (2 of 12)
- Quilmes away draw rate: 33% (4 of 12)
- H2H at Maipu: 1 draw in last 4 meetings
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates, and the H2H trend at this venue points to low-scoring affairs, making under 2.5 goals likely.
- Maipu home matches average 2.08 total goals (25 goals in 12 games)
- Quilmes away matches average 2.25 total goals (27 goals in 12 games)
- H2H at Maipu: 3 of last 4 meetings had under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Quilmes' away scoring struggles and Maipu's solid home defense suggest at least one team will fail to score.
- Maipu kept clean sheets in 5 of 12 home games (42%)
- Quilmes failed to score in 5 of 12 away games (42%)
- H2H at Maipu: Quilmes scored only 2 goals in 4 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Maipu's defensive solidity at home and Quilmes' inconsistent away attack give a moderate chance of a home clean sheet.
- Maipu home clean sheet rate: 42% (5 of 12)
- Quilmes away scoring rate: 58% (7 of 12 games with at least one goal)
- H2H at Maipu: Quilmes shut out in 2 of 4 meetings
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonQuilmes AC not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be cautious early, with low first-half scoring rates, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Maipu first half goals per game: 0.7, conceded 0.3
- Quilmes first half goals per game: 0.3, conceded 0.3
- Combined first half average: 1.6 goals per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Teams often open up after halftime, and the second-half scoring averages are slightly higher, giving a coin-flip chance for over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Maipu second half goals per game: 0.8 (1.5 total - 0.7 first half)
- Quilmes second half goals per game: 0.8 (1.1 total - 0.3 first half)
- Combined second half average: 1.6 goals per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner stats, we rely on league averages and the expected low-scoring nature of the game to lean under 9.5 corners.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- Primera Nacional average corners per game typically around 8-10
- Low-scoring match expectation often correlates with fewer corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 62.5% leaves no cushion vs our 58% estimate; the price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Deportivo Maipu has been highly reliable when projected to go under 2.5 goals

Deportivo Maipu has fulfilled 5 of 6 recent under 2.5 goals projections. The average estimated probability was 70.3%, with an expected 4.2 fulfilled predictions, so the actual 5 fulfilled predictions exceeded expectation. At home, all 4 projections were fulfilled, while away only 1 of 2 matched.

Recent evidence for Deportivo Maipu6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·Primera Nacional