Süper LigFull time

Predictions graded

Alanyaspor1Besiktas0

HT 0–0Sun 23 Aug 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 35%–65%ShotsShots 9–14On targetOn target 3–6CornersCorners 7–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Aug 2026, 08:23 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value is in the first-half draw at 2.30 (model 55% vs implied 43%) and under 2.5 total goals at 2.05 (model 58% vs implied 48.8%).

Avoid the Beşiktaş match winner at 1.91 and the double chance at 1.25—both are priced too short. Beşiktaş are defensively solid, but Alanyaspor's scoring threat and recent H2H competitiveness make a low-scoring, tight first half the most likely scenario.

Context

Beşiktaş average 0.8 goals conceded per match over last 15.
- They kept clean sheets in 5 of last 6 competitive matches.
- Alanyaspor average 1.3 goals scored per match.
Alanyaspor average 1.5 goals conceded per match.
- They conceded in 12 of their last 15 matches.
- Beşiktaş average 1.1 goals scored per match.
Last 5 H2H: 2 draws, 1 Alanyaspor win, 2 Beşiktaş wins.
- Alanyaspor won 2-0 at home in August 2025.
- February 2026 meeting ended 2-2.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Besiktas

1.25fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Besiktas have lost only 3 of 17 H2H meetings since 2016 and Alanyaspor have won only 3 of their last 15 matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Besiktas' superior overall quality and defensive record, combined with Alanyaspor's leaky defense, give the visitors a moderate edge despite the competitive recent H2H.
- Besiktas won their opening league match 1-0 and sit 4th with 3 points.
- Alanyaspor drew 1-1 away at Gaziantep and are 10th with 1 point.
- Besiktas have won 10 of 17 H2H meetings since 2016, but recent H2H is mixed (Alanyaspor won 2-0 at home last season).
- Besiktas average 1.1 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match over last 15; Alanyaspor average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBesiktasEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Besiktas' strong historical dominance and current form make them unlikely to lose, while Alanyaspor's poor win rate supports a double chance for the away side or draw.
- Besiktas have lost only 3 of 17 H2H meetings since 2016.
- Alanyaspor have won only 3 of their last 15 matches across all competitions.
- Besiktas have lost only 2 of their last 15 matches (both friendlies).
- Alanyaspor's home record this season is 0-0-0 (no home games yet), but they were inconsistent at home last season.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or BesiktasEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The high percentage of drawn first halves for both teams and the balanced first-half scoring suggest a draw at the break is most likely.
- Alanyaspor led at half-time in 33% of matches, trailed in 27%, drew in 40%.
- Besiktas led at half-time in 33%, trailed in 20%, drew in 47%.
- In last 5 H2H meetings, 3 were level at half-time.
- Both teams average 0.6 first-half goals scored and conceded.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Besiktas win is a plausible scenario given their second-half strength, but the probability remains low due to the specific sequence required.
- Besiktas have won 7 of their last 15 matches, often after a level first half.
- Alanyaspor have drawn at half-time in 40% of matches.
- H2H: Besiktas have come from behind or drawn at half-time to win in several meetings.
- Besiktas' superior squad depth may tell in the second half.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/BesiktasEstimated chance22%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Alanyaspor's consistent scoring but poor defense, combined with Besiktas' occasional defensive lapses, suggests both teams are likely to find the net.
- Alanyaspor have scored in 12 of their last 15 matches.
- Besiktas have kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 6 competitive matches.
- Alanyaspor have conceded in 12 of their last 15 matches.
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings saw both teams score.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Besiktas' strong defensive record and low-scoring recent matches, along with a historical trend of tight H2H encounters, point to a low-scoring game.
- Besiktas' last 5 competitive matches: 1-0, 1-0, 2-0, 1-0, 2-3 (avg 1.6 total goals).
- Alanyaspor's last 5 league matches: 1-1, 1-2, 3-1, 0-0, 2-3 (avg 2.8 total goals).
- Besiktas average 1.9 total goals per match over last 15; Alanyaspor average 2.8.
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Besiktas' defensive solidity gives them a decent chance of a clean sheet, but Alanyaspor's scoring ability makes this a low-confidence prediction.
- Besiktas kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 6 competitive matches.
- Alanyaspor failed to score in 3 of their last 15 matches.
- Besiktas concede only 0.8 goals per match on average.
- Alanyaspor average 1.3 goals scored per match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAlanyaspor not to scoreEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' low first-half scoring averages and a pattern of tight opening periods in H2H suggest a low-scoring first half.
- Alanyaspor average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded.
- Besiktas average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- In last 5 H2H meetings, only 1 had over 1.5 first-half goals.
- Both teams tend to start cautiously, with many first halves ending 0-0 or 1-0.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half tends to be more open as fatigue sets in, but the evidence is mixed, leading to a low-confidence lean toward over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Alanyaspor's matches average 1.4 second-half goals (total goals minus first-half goals).
- Besiktas' matches average 0.8 second-half goals.
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Teams often open up after a cautious first half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages suggest a total around 10, but the lack of consistent H2H corner data makes this a low-confidence lean toward over 9.5.
- Alanyaspor average 4.5 corners per match, Besiktas average 6.3.
- Combined average corners per match: 10.8.
- H2H: corner data not available for all meetings, but both teams tend to attack wide.
- Besiktas' high possession (61%) often leads to more corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages are just below the line, but the competitive nature of this fixture could push the total over 4.5 cards.
- Alanyaspor average 2.3 yellow cards per match, Besiktas average 1.9.
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.2.
- H2H: recent meetings have been competitive with multiple bookings.
- Referee tendencies unknown, but derby-like intensity may increase cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined averages suggest over 8.5 shots on target, but variance in shot accuracy makes this a low-confidence prediction.
- Alanyaspor average 4.1 shots on target per match, Besiktas average 5.3.
- Combined average shots on target: 9.4.
- Besiktas' high shot volume (18.5 total shots) often translates to more on target.
- Alanyaspor's defense allows many shots (opponents average 13.4 shots per match).
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance45%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 29% vs our estimate 20% leaves no value; home side's poor recent form and Besiktas' dominance make this a trap.

Head-to-Head

1W · 3D · 1W

L3-0BeşiktaşvAlanyasporApr 23, 2026TÜR

D2-2BeşiktaşvAlanyasporFeb 8, 2026SÜP

W2-0AlanyasporvBeşiktaşAug 31, 2025SÜP

D1-1AlanyasporvBeşiktaşMay 18, 2025SÜP

D1-1BeşiktaşvAlanyasporDec 21, 2024SÜP

2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Süper Lig 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	Alanyaspor	1	0	1	0	1-1	1	D
4	Besiktas	1	1	0	0	1-0	3	W

2pt gap between teamsBesiktas leads the league

Recent Form

Alanyaspor

D1-1Gaziantep FKAug 15SÜP

D2-2TikvešJul 16FRI

L1-2Fatih KaragümrükMay 16SÜP

W3-1KayserisporMay 9SÜP

D0-0AntalyasporMay 3SÜP

L2-3SamsunsporApr 27SÜP

L0-3BeşiktaşApr 23TÜR

L0-1KasımpaşaApr 19SÜP

D1-1TrabzonsporApr 11SÜP

D1-1Gaziantep FKApr 4SÜP

W5-0KocaelisporMar 18SÜP

D2-2GöztepeMar 14SÜP

D0-0Gençlerbirliği S.K.Mar 9SÜP

L1-2GalatasarayMar 3TÜR

L1-3GalatasarayFeb 28SÜP

Besiktas

W1-0EyüpsporAug 16SÜP

W1-0Hradec KrálovéAug 13UEF

W1-0Hradec KrálovéAug 6UEF

W2-0FC MidtjyllandJul 30UEF

W1-0FC MidtjyllandJul 23UEF

L2-3Spartak TrnavaJul 14FRI

D1-1MalženiceJul 14FRI

L0-2Widzew ŁódźJul 10FRI

D0-0MTE 1904Jul 5FRI

W2-1Gyirmot SEJul 2FRI

D2-2RizesporMay 15SÜP

L1-2TrabzonsporMay 9SÜP

L0-1KonyasporMay 5TÜR

W2-0Gaziantep FKMay 1SÜP

D0-0Fatih KaragümrükApr 27SÜP

Squad & Injuries

Alanyaspor

17 available

Attackers4

Midfielders7

Defenders5

Goalkeeper1

Besiktas

31 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

Draw or Besiktas

Besiktas

Under 1.5

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

@ 3.50

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Alanyaspor

Besiktas

Squad & Injuries

Alanyaspor

Besiktas