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Predictions graded

Indy Eleven2Louisville City1

HT 1–0Sat 22 Aug 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–363%

Edges5–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Aug 2026, 16:58 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.30 (model edge +11.5 points), as both teams score more after halftime.

Avoid Over 2.5 total goals (1.62) and Over 0.5 first-half goals (1.25), which are overpriced relative to our estimates. The match winner and BTTS markets offer no edge.

Context

Indy Eleven home record: 6W-2D-1L in 9 home matches.
- They scored 0 goals in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Their home goals per game average is 1.1.
Louisville City away record: 4W-2D-4L, 21 goals scored, 21 conceded in 10 away matches.
- They average 2.0 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per away game.
- Recent away results include a 4-5 loss and a 3-2 win.
Last three H2H at Indy: 2-2 draw, 0-1 Louisville win, 2-1 Indy win.
- Louisville lead the all-time series 11 wins to 5, with 7 draws.
- The 2025 official preview labeled this the LIPAFC rivalry.
Top eight teams in the Eastern Conference qualify for the 2026 USL Championship Playoffs.
- Louisville City rank 4th with 31 points, Indy Eleven rank 6th with 25 points.
- The match is within the playoff-qualification window.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Indy Eleven or Draw

1.78fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 56.2%

0.0ppshort

Indy Eleven's strong home record (6W-2D-1L) and competitive recent home H2H meetings support a double chance, but the odds are slightly below fair value.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.62fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have consistent scoring records and recent head-to-head matches frequently saw both sides find the net.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown attacking intent, and recent head-to-head meetings have been high-scoring, supporting over 2.5 goals.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Louisville City's strong first-half scoring record makes it likely that at least one goal is scored before halftime.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Louisville City's stronger overall standing and away form give them a slight edge, but Indy Eleven's solid home record and the rivalry context keep this close.
- Louisville City rank 4th with 31 points, Indy Eleven rank 6th with 25 points.
- Louisville City away record: 4W-2D-4L, 21 goals scored, 21 conceded in 10 away matches.
- Indy Eleven home record: 6W-2D-1L, 15 goals scored, 7 conceded in 9 home matches.
- Last 5 H2H: Louisville City won 2, Indy Eleven won 1, 2 draws.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLouisville CityEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Indy Eleven's strong home form and the competitive nature of recent home meetings against Louisville City support a double chance for the home side.
- Indy Eleven home record: 6W-2D-1L in 9 home matches.
- Indy Eleven have lost only once at home this season.
- Last 5 H2H at Indy: Indy won 1, drew 2, lost 2.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonIndy Eleven or DrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Louisville City's superior first-half scoring suggests they are more likely to lead at the break, though the probability remains low due to the draw possibility.
- Louisville City led at halftime in 27% of matches, Indy Eleven in 13%.
- Louisville City average 0.9 first-half goals, Indy Eleven 0.1.
- In the last 5 H2H, Louisville City led at halftime in 2 matches, Indy in 1, and 2 were level.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostLouisville CityEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Louisville City win is a plausible scenario given their second-half strength and Indy's tendency to start slowly.
- Louisville City have drawn at halftime in 60% of matches (trailing 13%, leading 27%).
- Louisville City have won 45% of matches overall.
- Indy Eleven have drawn at halftime in 54% of matches (trailing 33%, leading 13%).
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Louisville CityEstimated chance20%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown attacking intent, and recent head-to-head meetings have been high-scoring, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Louisville City average 2.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match overall.
- Indy Eleven average 1.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match overall.
- Last 5 H2H meetings produced 3, 4, 4, 8, and 2 total goals (average 4.2).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and recent head-to-head matches frequently saw both sides find the net.
- Louisville City have scored in 15 of their last 20 matches.
- Indy Eleven have scored in 12 of their last 18 matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, both teams scored in 4 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Louisville City's strong first-half scoring record makes it likely that at least one goal is scored before halftime.
- Louisville City average 0.9 first-half goals per match.
- Indy Eleven average 0.1 first-half goals per match.
- Louisville City led at halftime in 27% of matches, Indy Eleven in 13%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, making over 1.5 second-half goals a reasonable expectation.
- Louisville City average 1.1 second-half goals per match (2.0 total - 0.9 first half).
- Indy Eleven average 1.0 second-half goals per match (1.1 total - 0.1 first half).
- Combined second-half average: 2.1 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner stats, this is a speculative pick based on general league averages and the attacking nature of both teams.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in the provided dataset.
- USL Championship matches average around 10 corners per game based on league norms.
- Both teams have attacking styles that could generate corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The LIPAFC rivalry and competitive stakes could lead to a higher card count, but without specific data this is a low-confidence estimate.
- Card data is unavailable for both teams in the provided dataset.
- Rivalry matches often produce more cards due to intensity.
- USL Championship matches average around 4 cards per game.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 52% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Louisville City has been highly reliable when projected to win

Louisville City has fulfilled 3 of 4 recent win predictions, a 75% success rate. The average estimated probability was 52.5%, with an expected 2.1 fulfilled predictions, so they outperformed expectation. The only miss was a draw at home against Brooklyn FC, while they won both other home matches and their sole away match.

Recent evidence for Louisville City4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

12 Jul·USL Cup