AllsvenskanFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Sirius are strong favourites at home and should avoid defeat, but the odds on the outright win, double chance, and first-half result all imply higher probabilities than our model estimates, offering no value.
The goals markets are even more overpriced, with Over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes both carrying significant negative edges. The most interesting angle is Sirius' set-piece threat, which hurt Hacken in their last meeting, but this is not reflected in the standard markets.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Other edges · 5
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
SiriusBetBugs 55% · Market 60%
Sirius are unbeaten at home this season (6W 2D) and sit 17 points clear of Hacken, but the odds imply a higher probability than our model estimate.
BetBugs 80% · Market 82%
Sirius have not lost at home this season and Hacken have only 3 away wins, but the odds are slightly short of our estimate.
SiriusBetBugs 45% · Market 48%
Sirius lead at half-time in 67% of matches and average 1.4 first-half goals, but the odds imply a slightly higher probability than our estimate.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 60% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius Qualifying | 17 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 47-23 | 42 |
| 5 |  Hacken | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 28-26 | 25 |