Primera AFull time

Predictions graded

Jaguares1Boyaca Chico0

HT 1–0Fri 21 Aug 2026, 21:05 Predictions graded

Predictions7–464%

Edges5–271%

PossPossession 43%–57%ShotsShots 9–12On targetOn target 6–3CornersCorners 4–12

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Aug 2026, 16:58 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value is Over 2.5 goals at 2.20 (model edge +9.5pts) and Over 4.5 cards at 1.85 (+5.9pts).

Avoid the match winner market: Jaguares at 1.85 is overpriced, and the away win is a trap despite Chicó's 5-0 win in the reverse fixture.

Context

Away record: 0W 1D 9L in Primera A this season.
- Scored only 2 goals in 10 away matches (0.2 per game).
- Conceded 27 goals in 10 away matches (2.7 per game).
- Failed to score in 8 of 10 away matches.
Jaguares won all four home H2H matches (1-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-0).
- Chicó have never scored more than one goal at Jaguares.
- The most recent home H2H was a 1-0 Jaguares win in October 2024.
Chicó won 5-0 at home on 12 February 2026.
- Chicó have not won away all season (0W 1D 9L).
- Jaguares have won all home H2H meetings.
Match is at Estadio Jaraguay de Montería.
- Forecast temperature is 34°C.
- High heat often leads to slower play and more substitutions.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Jaguares

1.85fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 54%

0.0ppshort

Jaguares' strong home form and perfect home H2H record outweigh Chico's terrible away record, making a home win the most likely single outcome.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Jaguares or Draw

1.22fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 82%

−7.0ppshort

Combining Jaguares' home strength and Chico's away futility, the double chance of Jaguares or Draw is highly likely.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.65fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Chico's away scoring drought makes it unlikely both teams will score, despite Jaguares' moderate defensive record at home.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams are slow starters, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Jaguares' strong home form and perfect home H2H record outweigh Chico's terrible away record, making a home win the most likely single outcome.
- Jaguares home record: 5W 1D 4L, 14 goals scored, 12 conceded in 10 home matches
- Boyaca Chico away record: 0W 1D 9L, 2 goals scored, 27 conceded in 10 away matches
- H2H: Jaguares have won all four recorded home meetings against Chico
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJaguaresEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Jaguares' home strength and Chico's away futility, the double chance of Jaguares or Draw is highly likely.
- Jaguares home record: 5W 1D 4L (60% unbeaten)
- Boyaca Chico away record: 0W 1D 9L (10% unbeaten)
- H2H: Jaguares unbeaten at home vs Chico (4W 1D)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonJaguares or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be level at halftime, with low first-half scoring, making a draw the most likely first-half result.
- Jaguares first half results: 7 draws in 15 recent matches
- Boyaca Chico first half results: 6 draws in 15 recent matches
- Both teams average 0.3 first-half goals
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Jaguares win is plausible given Jaguares' second-half home strength and Chico's away collapses.
- Jaguares often draw at halftime (7 of 15) but win at home (5 of 10)
- Boyaca Chico often draw at halftime (6 of 15) but lose away (9 of 10)
- Pattern of Jaguares improving in second half at home
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/JaguaresEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits show high total goals, and the recent H2H blowout supports an over 2.5 goals scenario.
- Jaguares home matches average 2.6 total goals (14 scored, 12 conceded in 10)
- Boyaca Chico away matches average 2.9 total goals (2 scored, 27 conceded in 10)
- Last H2H meeting ended 5-0
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chico's away scoring drought makes it unlikely both teams will score, despite Jaguares' moderate defensive record at home.
- Boyaca Chico away: scored only 2 goals in 10 away matches (0.2 per game)
- Jaguares home: conceded 12 in 10 (1.2 per game), but Chico's attack is extremely weak away
- Chico failed to score in 8 of 10 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chico's away scoring struggles give Jaguares a solid chance of a clean sheet, though Jaguares' own defensive inconsistency tempers confidence.
- Boyaca Chico away: failed to score in 8 of 10 away matches
- Jaguares home: kept clean sheets in 3 of 10 home matches
- Chico's away goals per game: 0.2
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBoyaca Chico not to scoreEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are slow starters, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Jaguares first half goals per game: 0.3 (home and away combined)
- Boyaca Chico first half goals per game: 0.3
- Both teams average less than 1 first-half goal combined
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With Chico's away defense collapsing late and Jaguares pushing at home, the second half is likely to see more goals.
- Jaguares home matches: 14 goals scored, 12 conceded, many in second half
- Boyaca Chico away matches: 27 conceded in 10, often after halftime
- Both teams' scoring tends to increase in second half
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner averages hover around 8 total, so over 8.5 is a coin flip, but Jaguares' home pressure may push it slightly over.
- Jaguares average corners per game: 3.5, opponent corners: 4.5 (total ~8)
- Boyaca Chico average corners per game: 4.1, opponent corners: 4.0 (total ~8.1)
- Combined average total corners: ~8.1
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average over 2.5 yellow cards each, so total cards over 4.5 is likely given the competitive nature of the match.
- Jaguares average yellow cards per game: 2.7
- Boyaca Chico average yellow cards per game: 2.4
- Combined average yellow cards: 5.1
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 25% vs our estimate of 20% leaves no value; the away side's terrible away record makes this a trap.

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

L5-0ChicovJaguaresFeb 12, 2026PRI

W1-0JaguaresvChicoOct 15, 2024PRI

L1-0ChicovJaguaresMar 31, 2024PRI

W2-1JaguaresvChicoJul 25, 2023PRI

L1-0ChicovJaguaresJan 31, 2023PRI

Boyaca Chico: 3 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
16	Jaguares	19	5	3	11	20-33	18	DLLLW
18	Boyaca Chico	19	5	2	12	15-32	17	LLWLL

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Jaguares

D1-1Once CaldasAug 9PRI

L0-1Internacional de BogotaAug 5PRI

L0-3Atletico NacionalAug 2PRI

L0-2Deportivo CaliJul 25PRI

L0-1Deportivo PereiraMay 26COP

W3-0Ind. YumboMay 21COP

D0-0Águilas DoradasMay 10COP

L1-2Real CundinamarcaMay 7COP

W2-0CucutaMay 2PRI

D2-2BucaramangaApr 25PRI

L2-3Deportivo PastoApr 17PRI

L1-2Atletico NacionalApr 7PRI

W1-0MillonariosApr 2PRI

L1-3Deportes TolimaMar 28PRI

D1-1Águilas DoradasMar 23PRI

Boyaca Chico

L0-2Santa FeAug 8PRI

L0-7America de CaliAug 2PRI

L0-1LlanerosMay 27COP

D2-2MillonariosMay 23COP

W4-0Depor FCMay 16COP

D0-0PatriotasMay 7COP

W3-0LlanerosMay 2PRI

L0-4Internacional de BogotaApr 27PRI

L0-2Independiente MedellinApr 22PRI

W1-0Deportivo CaliApr 17PRI

L0-5BucaramangaApr 12PRI

W1-0Deportivo PereiraApr 2PRI

L0-1CucutaMar 28PRI

D1-1Deportes TolimaMar 23PRI

L0-2Deportivo PastoMar 18PRI

Squad & Injuries

Jaguares

28 available

Attackers9

Midfielders8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Boyaca Chico

31 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Jaguares1Boyaca Chico0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Over 4.5

Jaguares

Jaguares or Draw

Draw

No

Under 1.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

@ 4.00

Over 3.5

Yes

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Jaguares

Boyaca Chico

Squad & Injuries

Jaguares

Boyaca Chico