Lech Poznan
Market 63.7% · BetBugs 72%
Lech Poznan have won 11 of their last 15 matches while Thun have lost 6 of 15 and 4 of their last 7 away, making the home side underpriced at 1.57.
UEFA Europa LeagueFull timeFeatured
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Lech Poznan are strong favourites at home, with a 72% win probability against Thun's 64% implied odds, making the home win at 1.57 the top value bet.
Thun's off-pitch upheaval and poor away form further support Lech, while over 2.5 goals and HT/FT Lech/Lech also offer edges. Avoid first-half and handicap markets due to thin value and high variance.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Lech PoznanMarket 63.7% · BetBugs 72%
Lech Poznan have won 11 of their last 15 matches while Thun have lost 6 of 15 and 4 of their last 7 away, making the home side underpriced at 1.57.
Market 84.7% · BetBugs 90%
Lech Poznan have lost only 2 of their last 15 matches and are unbeaten in their last 5 home games, while Thun have won only 4 of 15, so the double chance offers a safe edge.
Lech Poznan at half-time / Lech Poznan at full-timeMarket 41.7% · BetBugs 50%
Lech Poznan have led at half-time and won the match in 9 of their last 15 matches, and Thun have trailed at HT and lost in 3 of 15, supporting the HT/FT double at 2.40.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
Lech Poznan has fulfilled 3 of 4 recent over 2.5 goals predictions. The average estimated probability was 61.3%, with an expected 2.5 fulfilled predictions, so actual fulfilment exceeded expectation. The current probability of 65% sits within the historical range of 55% to 70%.

