Deportivo Cuenca Juniors0Gualaceo3

HT 0–1Thu 20 Aug 2026, 20:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–925%

Edges3–633%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Aug 2026, 15:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors are strong at home and Gualaceo struggle away, making a low-scoring home win or draw likely.

The best value bets are the home clean sheet (2.30) and Gualaceo under 0.5 goals (2.50), but the market is mostly efficient and data is limited.

Context

Cuenca Juniors kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- They conceded only 7 goals in 10 home matches this season.
- Gualaceo failed to score in 5 of 10 away matches.
Gualaceo average 0.6 goals per away match.
- They failed to score in 5 of 10 away matches.
- Cuenca Juniors concede only 0.7 goals per home match.
Gualaceo 0-1 Deportivo Cuenca Juniors on 21 Mar 2026.
- Cuenca Juniors kept a clean sheet in that match.
- No other head-to-head data is available.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors

1.80fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

Home advantage and superior recent form give Cuenca Juniors the edge, supported by their win in the only H2H meeting.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors or Draw

1.29fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Cuenca Juniors' strong home form and Gualaceo's poor away record make a home win or draw highly likely.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.45fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low scoring rates, especially in home/away splits, suggesting a low-scoring match.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 1.5

1.15fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Second halves have been even lower scoring for both teams, supporting under 1.5 goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and superior recent form give Cuenca Juniors the edge, supported by their win in the only H2H meeting.
- Home record: 5W-3D-2L, 11 goals for, 7 against in 10 home matches
- Recent form: WLDDW in last 5, including 3 wins
- H2H: won reverse fixture 1-0 away
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDeportivo Cuenca JuniorsEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cuenca Juniors' strong home form and Gualaceo's poor away record make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Home record: 8 unbeaten in 10 home matches (5W-3D)
- Gualaceo away record: 1W-5D-4L, only 1 win in 10 away
- H2H: Cuenca Juniors won the only meeting
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDeportivo Cuenca Juniors or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into the break level, making a first-half draw the most likely single outcome.
- Cuenca Juniors led at half time in 40% of matches, trailed in 20%
- Gualaceo led at half time in 33%, trailed in 20%
- Both teams have high draw rates at half time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half time and full time is plausible given the teams' draw-heavy records.
- Cuenca Juniors home draws: 3 in 10
- Gualaceo away draws: 5 in 10
- Both teams have high draw tendencies in respective splits
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low scoring rates, especially in home/away splits, suggesting a low-scoring match.
- Home matches average 1.8 total goals (11 for, 7 against in 10)
- Away matches average 1.6 total goals (6 for, 10 against in 10)
- Both teams average under 1 goal scored per game overall
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Home defensive solidity and away scoring struggles make it likely at least one team fails to score.
- Cuenca Juniors kept clean sheets in 4 of last 5 home matches
- Gualaceo failed to score in 5 of 10 away matches
- H2H: Cuenca Juniors won 1-0 with clean sheet
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be cautious early, with low first-half scoring averages.
- Cuenca Juniors first half goals: 0.7 per game, conceded 0.5
- Gualaceo first half goals: 0.5 per game, conceded 0.3
- Combined first half average: 1.2 goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been even lower scoring for both teams, supporting under 1.5 goals.
- Cuenca Juniors second half goals: 0.2 per game (0.9 total - 0.7 first half)
- Gualaceo second half goals: 0.4 per game (0.9 total - 0.5 first half)
- Combined second half average: 0.6 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Home defensive strength and away offensive weakness support a home clean sheet.
- Cuenca Juniors kept clean sheets in 4 of last 5 home matches
- Gualaceo failed to score in 5 of 10 away matches
- H2H: Cuenca Juniors kept clean sheet
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostGualaceo not to scoreEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gualaceo's away defense is leaky and Cuenca Juniors usually score at home.
- Gualaceo kept only 2 clean sheets in 10 away matches
- Cuenca Juniors scored in 8 of 10 home matches
- H2H: Gualaceo conceded 1 goal at home
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDeportivo Cuenca Juniors to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Home team has moderate scoring potential but not enough to warrant high confidence.
- Cuenca Juniors average 1.1 goals per home match
- Scored 2+ goals in 3 of last 5 home matches
- Gualaceo concede 1.0 goals per away match
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostDeportivo Cuenca Juniors over 1.5Estimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Away team's poor scoring record on the road makes a goalless outing likely.
- Gualaceo average 0.6 goals per away match
- Failed to score in 5 of 10 away matches
- Cuenca Juniors concede 0.7 goals per home match
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostGualaceo under 0.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 23% vs our estimate 20% leaves no value; away side's poor away record makes this a trap.

Prediction history

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors have been reliable when projected to win at home

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors have fulfilled 3 of 5 recent win projections. At home they have won all 3 of their projected home victories, while their only away projection was missed. The current 45% probability sits within their historical range of 40-45%.

Recent evidence for Deportivo Cuenca Juniors5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

25 Jul·Liga Pro Serie B