Svenska CupenFull time

Predictions graded

IFK Ostersund1Degerfors5

HT 0–3Wed 19 Aug 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions9–0100%

Edges7–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Aug 2026, 22:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Degerfors are strong favourites to win, but the odds offer no value (1.13).

The best betting angle is Both Teams to Score at 2.20, where the model sees a 9.5-point edge. Avoid the heavily juiced Over 2.5 and first-half goal markets.

Context

Degerfors beat Malmö FF 2-1 away on 9 August.
- They had only 26% possession but scored twice from five shots.
- That win ended a run of four straight Allsvenskan away defeats.
IFK Östersund lost 0-4 to Gottne in Division 2 Norrland.
- They trailed 0-3 at half-time in that match.
- They have only two wins in their last five matches.
IFK Östersund drew 1-1 with Kubikenborg, 0-0 with Friska Viljor, and 1-1 with Kubikenborg again at home.
- They have scored in eight of their last ten home matches.
- They have kept only two clean sheets in their last ten home matches.
Degerfors conceded in away matches against Malmö, IFK Göteborg, Hammarby, Västerås, Kalmar, and GAIS.
- They have kept only two clean sheets in their last ten away matches.
- Their away goals conceded average is 1.7 per game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Degerfors

1.13fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 88.5%

0.0ppshort

Degerfors are two divisions above IFK Ostersund and beat Malmo FF away last time out, but the odds are extremely short and offer no value.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Degerfors or Draw

1.01fair 1.14

BetBugs 88% · Market 99%

0.0ppshort

While Degerfors or Draw is highly likely, the odds of 1.01 provide no meaningful return and are not worth the risk.

Asian HandicapwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Degerfors -1.5

1.33fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

The -1.5 handicap is priced too aggressively given Degerfors' inconsistent away form and the hosts' ability to keep games close at home.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.30fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent high-scoring games are inflated by lower-division opponents; Degerfors' Allsvenskan away form shows only 0.9 goals scored per game.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.15fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

First-half goal probability is overpriced by the market; both teams have low first-half scoring averages.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 1.5

1.80fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

Second-half goal totals are close to market expectation; no significant edge exists.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The massive gap in league level and recent form strongly favors Degerfors, with the away side's top-flight quality likely to overwhelm the Division 2 hosts.
- Degerfors are an Allsvenskan side, while IFK Ostersund play in Division 2 Norrland (two tiers lower).
- Degerfors won 2-1 away at Malmo FF in their most recent match, showing they can beat top-flight opposition on the road.
- IFK Ostersund lost 0-4 away to Gottne in their last match and have only 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDegerforsEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
While Degerfors are clear favorites, the cup knockout format and IFK Ostersund's home resilience make a draw a real possibility, so covering the draw is prudent.
- Degerfors have not lost to a lower-division side in this competition in recent seasons.
- IFK Ostersund have drawn 3 of their last 5 home matches, showing they can hold opponents at home.
- Degerfors have drawn 3 of their last 5 away matches in Allsvenskan.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDegerfors or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Degerfors' superior quality and IFK Ostersund's heavy recent defeat suggest the away side could win by a comfortable margin.
- Degerfors won 2-1 away at Malmo FF, a top Allsvenskan side.
- IFK Ostersund lost 0-4 away to Gottne, a Division 2 side.
- Degerfors have won by 2+ goals in 2 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Asian HandicapwonDegerfors -1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Degerfors are likely to start strongly given the quality gap, but their away first-half record is mixed, so confidence is low.
- Degerfors led at half-time in their last away match against Malmo FF.
- IFK Ostersund have trailed at half-time in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- Degerfors have led at half-time in only 1 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDegerforsEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
If Degerfors take an early lead, they are likely to control the match, but their away consistency is questionable.
- Degerfors won both halves in their last away match against Malmo FF.
- IFK Ostersund have lost both halves in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- Degerfors have won both halves in only 1 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDegerfors/DegerforsEstimated chance40%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in relatively high-scoring games recently, and the cup tie is likely to be open as the lower-division side pushes for an upset.
- IFK Ostersund's last 5 matches have averaged 3.4 total goals.
- Degerfors' last 5 away matches have averaged 2.8 total goals.
- IFK Ostersund have scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches, while Degerfors have conceded in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
IFK Ostersund's home scoring record and Degerfors' away defensive vulnerabilities suggest both teams are likely to find the net.
- IFK Ostersund have scored in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
- Degerfors have conceded in 8 of their last 10 away matches.
- IFK Ostersund have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown a tendency for first-half goals, with Degerfors often conceding early away from home.
- IFK Ostersund have scored in the first half in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Degerfors have conceded in the first half in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
- Degerfors scored in the first half in their last away match against Malmo FF.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second half is likely to be open as the match progresses, with both teams pushing for a result.
- IFK Ostersund's last 5 matches have averaged 1.8 second-half goals.
- Degerfors' last 5 away matches have averaged 1.6 second-half goals.
- Both teams have scored in the second half in 3 of IFK Ostersund's last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Degerfors' matches tend to produce a moderate number of corners, and the expected dominance by the away side could lead to more corners.
- Degerfors average 4.5 corners per match and concede 5.0 corners per match.
- IFK Ostersund's corner data is unavailable, but lower-division sides often concede many corners against stronger opposition.
- Degerfors' recent away matches have averaged 10.2 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of a cup tie and Degerfors' disciplinary record suggest a moderate number of cards.
- Degerfors average 2.2 yellow cards per match and their opponents average 1.8 yellow cards per match.
- Degerfors' recent away matches have averaged 4.0 total cards.
- IFK Ostersund's card data is unavailable, but cup ties often see increased physicality.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 88% leaves no cushion vs our 72% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Recent Form

IFK Ostersund

L0-4GottneAug 12DIV

W2-0KubikenborgAug 8DIV

L3-4IFK LuleåAug 1DIV

D1-1Umea FFJun 21DIV

D1-1KubikenborgJun 14DIV

W2-1FranstaJun 10DIV

D0-0Friska ViljorJun 6DIV

W1-0KubikenborgJun 3SVE

L1-3GottneMay 30DIV

W4-2LuckstaMay 23DIV

D3-3GottneMay 14DIV

D1-1Friska ViljorMay 9DIV

W4-1FranstaMay 2DIV

L0-2KubikenborgApr 26DIV

L2-3Umea FFApr 18DIV

Degerfors

W2-1Malmo FFAug 9ALL

L0-2IFK GoteborgAug 2ALL

L0-1Djurgardens IFJul 25ALL

L0-4Hammarby FFJul 19ALL

L0-2Vasteras SK FKJul 12ALL

L0-1Malmo FFJul 4ALL

W3-2LillestromJun 26FRI

D2-2IF BrommapojkarnaMay 31ALL

L1-2Kalmar FFMay 23ALL

D1-1GaisMay 16ALL

L1-4Mjallby AIFMay 9ALL

D1-1BK HackenMay 2ALL

D1-1Orgryte ISApr 27ALL

W2-1AIK StockholmApr 23ALL

L0-1IF ElfsborgApr 17ALL

Squad & Injuries

IFK Ostersund

0 available

Attackers0

Midfielders0

Defenders0

Goalkeeper0

Degerfors

27 available

Attackers5

Midfielders8

Defenders12

Goalkeeper2

IFK Ostersund1Degerfors5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Degerfors

Degerfors or Draw

Degerfors -1.5

Over 2.5

Over 0.5

Over 1.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result5 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

@ 1.13

@ 1.01

@ 1.33

Recent Form

IFK Ostersund

Degerfors

Squad & Injuries

IFK Ostersund

Degerfors