Liga IFull time

Predictions graded

FCSB3Botosani2

HT 1–1Mon 17 Aug 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–280%

Edges6–186%

PossPossession 60%–40%ShotsShots 22–12On targetOn target 8–3CornersCorners 13–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Aug 2026, 07:41 · Europe/Bucharest

FCSB are strong favorites at home against Botosani, but the odds offer no value on the outright or double chance.

The best betting edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.25, with a model probability of 55% versus an implied 44.4%.

Context

Last five home H2Hs: all FCSB wins, 11-5 aggregate.
- Most recent home H2H: FCSB 4-3 Botosani on 24 May 2026.
- FCSB have scored at least 2 goals in each of those five home wins.
Away record this season: 0W 1D 1L, goals 3:4.
- Lost 2-1 at Universitatea Cluj on 3 August 2026.
- Drew 2-2 at FC Voluntari on 17 July 2026.
Home record this season: 1W 1D 0L, goals 4:2.
- Drew 2-2 with Farul Constanta on 3 August 2026.
- Won 2-0 against Arges Pitesti on 17 July 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

FCSB

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

FCSB's superior league position, strong home H2H dominance, and Botosani's poor away form make a home win the most likely outcome, but the odds are slightly short of our estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

FCSB or Draw

1.14fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 87.7%

−2.7ppshort

FCSB's strong home form and Botosani's inability to win away make FCSB or Draw a very safe double chance, but the market has priced it accordingly.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.62fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, and FCSB's attacking output at home supports over 2.5 goals.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.75fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, making BTTS a reasonable expectation.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

FCSB's tendency to score early and Botosani's first-half defensive vulnerabilities suggest at least one first-half goal.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
FCSB's superior league position, strong home H2H dominance, and Botosani's poor away form make a home win the most likely outcome.
- FCSB are 2nd with 8 points from 4 games, while Botosani are 14th with 3 points.
- FCSB have won their last five home H2Hs against Botosani, scoring 11 and conceding 5.
- FCSB home record this season: 1W 1D 0L, goals 4:2; Botosani away record: 0W 1D 1L, goals 3:4.
- FCSB average 1.5 goals per game overall, Botosani concede 1.7 goals per game.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFCSBEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FCSB's strong home form and Botosani's inability to win away make FCSB or Draw a very safe double chance.
- FCSB are unbeaten in their last 4 league matches (2W 2D).
- Botosani have not won away this season (0W 1D 1L).
- FCSB have won or drawn 3 of their last 4 home matches across all competitions.
- Botosani have drawn 3 of their 4 league games this season.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFCSB or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FCSB's stronger first-half scoring record gives them an edge to lead at the break.
- FCSB have led at half-time in 33% of their matches.
- Botosani have trailed at half-time in 29% of their matches.
- FCSB average 0.9 first-half goals vs Botosani's 0.5.
- FCSB have won the first half in 4 of their last 10 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostFCSBEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FCSB's home dominance and ability to start strong make a half-time/full-time double a plausible outcome.
- FCSB have led at half-time and won the match in 3 of their last 10 matches.
- Botosani have trailed at half-time and lost the match in 2 of their last 10 matches.
- FCSB have won their last five home H2Hs against Botosani.
- FCSB are strong at home with a 50% win rate this season.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostFCSB/FCSBEstimated chance40%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, and FCSB's attacking output at home supports over 2.5 goals.
- FCSB's last 5 home matches have averaged 3.0 total goals.
- Botosani's last 5 away matches have averaged 3.2 total goals.
- FCSB average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game overall.
- Botosani average 1.2 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game overall.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, making BTTS a reasonable expectation.
- FCSB have scored in 8 of their last 10 matches.
- Botosani have scored in 7 of their last 10 matches.
- FCSB have conceded in 7 of their last 10 matches.
- Botosani have conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FCSB's tendency to score early and Botosani's first-half defensive vulnerabilities suggest at least one first-half goal.
- FCSB average 0.9 first-half goals per game.
- Botosani average 0.5 first-half goals per game.
- FCSB have scored in the first half in 6 of their last 10 matches.
- Botosani have conceded in the first half in 6 of their last 10 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be more active in the second half, and FCSB's attacking pressure often yields late goals.
- FCSB average 0.6 second-half goals per game (calculated from total and first-half).
- Botosani average 0.7 second-half goals per game.
- FCSB have scored in the second half in 7 of their last 10 matches.
- Botosani have conceded in the second half in 7 of their last 10 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages suggest a moderate chance of exceeding 9.5 corners, but confidence is low due to variability.
- FCSB average 6.4 corners per game overall.
- Botosani average 4.3 corners per game overall.
- FCSB's recent home matches have averaged 7.0 corners for FCSB.
- Botosani's recent away matches have averaged 4.5 corners for Botosani.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined shots on target averages are close to the line, making this a coin-flip proposition.
- FCSB average 4.9 shots on target per game.
- Botosani average 4.3 shots on target per game.
- FCSB's recent home matches have averaged 5.2 shots on target for FCSB.
- Botosani's recent away matches have averaged 4.0 shots on target for Botosani.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 67% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

FCSB has struggled to convert win projections recently

FCSB has fulfilled only 1 of 5 win predictions, with a sample size of 5. The missed predictions include 2 draws and 2 losses, showing a tendency to drop points when favored. At home, FCSB has failed to win in all 3 such matches, while the only success came away.

Recent evidence for FCSB5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jul·UEFA Europa Conference League

FCSB2-3