USL League OneFull time

Predictions graded

Portland Hearts Of Pine1Forward Madison2

HT 0–1Sun 16 Aug 2026, 22:36 Predictions graded

Predictions7–188%

Edges5–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Aug 2026, 00:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Forward Madison are the likely winners based on league position and H2H dominance, but the only clear betting edge is Madison to lead at half-time (odds 2.75, model edge +3.6 points).

Avoid Over 2.5 goals and BTTS—both are overpriced relative to the model. Portland's congested schedule adds rotation risk, but no confirmed team news yet.

Context

Portland's official schedule lists three matches in six days.
- No rotation news is confirmed yet, but the quick turnaround increases the risk.
- Madison have a lighter schedule with no midweek match before this fixture.
Madison average 1.2 first-half goals per match.
- Portland average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match.
- In the two H2H meetings, Madison led at half-time in the 3-1 win and drew 1-1 in the other.
H2H: 1-1 draw in May 2025 and 3-1 Madison win in October 2025.
- Madison scored four goals to Portland's two across those matches.
- The only prior meeting at Fitzpatrick Stadium ended in a Madison victory.
Madison sit 3rd with 36 points, 15 ahead of 11th-placed Portland.
- USL League One's playoff format rewards higher seeds with home-field advantage.
- Portland's recent form (3 losses in last 5 league matches) increases their urgency.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Forward Madison

2.15fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 46.5%

0.0ppshort

Forward Madison's superior league position and unbeaten H2H record give them the edge, though Portland's home form is respectable.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Forward Madison

1.40fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 71.4%

−1.4ppshort

Madison's consistency and H2H dominance make them unlikely to lose, supporting a double chance.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.29fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have strong first-half scoring records, with Madison especially prolific early (1.2 first-half goals per match).

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have consistent scoring records and defensive lapses, making BTTS a strong possibility.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Forward Madison's superior league position and unbeaten H2H record give them the edge, though Portland's home form is respectable.
- Forward Madison are 3rd with 36 points, 15 ahead of Portland (11th, 21 points).
- Madison's away record: 4W-1D-5L, 11 goals scored, 13 conceded in 10 away matches.
- Portland's home record: 3W-3D-3L, 14 goals scored, 11 conceded in 9 home matches.
- H2H: Madison unbeaten in two meetings (1-1 away, 3-1 at Portland).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonForward MadisonEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Madison's consistency and H2H dominance make them unlikely to lose, supporting a double chance.
- Madison have lost only 5 of 19 league matches this season.
- Portland have won only 5 of 19 league matches.
- H2H: Madison have not lost to Portland in two meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonForward Madison or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Madison's strong first-half performances and Portland's tendency to trail make Madison the likely half-time leader.
- Madison lead at half-time in 67% of matches (average).
- Portland trail at half-time in 57% of matches (average).
- Madison average 1.2 first-half goals vs Portland's 0.6.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonForward MadisonEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Madison's ability to start strong and maintain leads, combined with Portland's slow starts, supports this outcome.
- Madison have led at half-time and won in 5 of their last 10 matches.
- Portland have trailed at half-time and lost in 4 of their last 10 matches.
- H2H: Madison won 3-1 at Portland, leading at half-time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostForward Madison/Forward MadisonEstimated chance30%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- Portland's home matches average 2.78 total goals (14 scored + 11 conceded in 9 games).
- Madison's away matches average 2.4 total goals (11 scored + 13 conceded in 10 games).
- Both teams have scored in 4 of Portland's last 5 home matches.
- Madison have scored in 8 of their last 10 away matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and defensive lapses, making BTTS a strong possibility.
- Portland have scored in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
- Madison have scored in 8 of their last 10 away matches.
- Portland have conceded in 7 of their last 10 home matches.
- Madison have conceded in 8 of their last 10 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, with Madison especially strong early.
- Portland average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match.
- Madison average 1.2 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded per match.
- In H2H, both meetings had first-half goals (1-1 and 3-1).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given the attacking nature of both sides and defensive weaknesses, second-half goals are likely.
- Portland's matches average 2.3 goals conceded overall, with many coming late.
- Madison's away matches have seen 13 goals conceded in 10 games.
- Both teams have shown ability to score in second halves.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner data, this is a speculative pick based on typical match dynamics.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Both teams average around 4-5 corners per match based on league norms.
- Attacking styles suggest a moderate corner count.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given the stakes and typical league card counts, over 3.5 cards is a reasonable estimate.
- Card data is unavailable for both teams.
- USL League One matches average around 3-4 cards per game.
- Competitive match with playoff implications may increase intensity.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 34.7% vs our estimate 30% (assuming draw 25%, away 45%); no value and home side faces a tight schedule.

Prediction history

Forward Madison has been highly reliable when projected to win

Forward Madison has fulfilled 5 of 7 win predictions, a 71% success rate. Their matched predictions averaged 57% probability, while missed predictions averaged 45%, indicating stronger confidence in successful outcomes. All five fulfilled predictions came at home, where they are 5 for 6, but their only away prediction was missed.

Recent evidence for Forward Madison7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·USL League One