Primera DivisiónFull time

Predictions graded

Deportivo La Guaira6Zamora Barinas1

HT 4–0Sun 16 Aug 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges2–433%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Aug 2026, 16:40 · Europe/Bucharest

Deportivo La Guaira's unbeaten home record and Zamora's away struggles point to a home win or draw, but the odds offer no value.

The only slight edge is on the first-half draw at 2.05. Expect a low-scoring match with a strong chance of a goalless first half.

Context

Home record: 3 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses, with only 1 goal conceded in 6 home games.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 league matches overall.
- Home matches average only 1.17 total goals per game.
Zamora have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Away record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, with only 7 goals scored in 7 away games.
- They lost their most recent away match 0-1 to Estudiantes de Merida.
Deportivo La Guaira average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Zamora Barinas average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded.
- Both teams have drawn at half-time in 60% and 53% of matches respectively.
Last 5 H2H: Deportivo La Guaira won 2, drew 2, lost 1.
- The most recent meeting in February 2026 ended 1-1.
- Three of the last five meetings had under 2.5 goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Deportivo La Guaira

1.57fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Despite the predictor's medium confidence, the odds imply a much higher probability than our estimate, suggesting no value on the home win.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Deportivo La Guaira or Draw

1.18fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 84.7%

−6.7ppshort

The double chance is priced at a very short price, and our estimate is lower than the implied probability, indicating no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Deportivo La Guaira's strong home defensive record and unbeaten league form give them the edge, while Zamora's away struggles support a home win.
- Deportivo La Guaira are unbeaten in the Apertura with 7 wins and 6 draws in 13 matches.
- Home record: 3 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses, with only 1 goal conceded in 6 home games.
- Zamora Barinas have lost 4 of 13 matches and have a negative away record (2W, 2D, 3L).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDeportivo La GuairaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The home side's unbeaten home record and Zamora's poor away form make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Deportivo La Guaira have not lost at home this season (3W, 3D).
- Zamora Barinas have only 2 away wins in 7 attempts.
- H2H last 5: Deportivo La Guaira won 2, drew 2, lost 1.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDeportivo La Guaira or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams frequently go into the break level, making a first-half draw the most likely outcome.
- Deportivo La Guaira led at half-time in only 20% of matches.
- Zamora Barinas led at half-time in 20% of matches.
- Both teams have a high percentage of draws at half-time (60% for Deportivo, 53% for Zamora).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a home win is plausible given Deportivo La Guaira's second-half strength and Zamora's tendency to fade.
- Deportivo La Guaira have drawn at half-time in 60% of matches.
- Deportivo La Guaira have won 7 of 13 matches overall.
- Zamora Barinas have drawn at half-time in 53% of matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Deportivo La GuairaEstimated chance20%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have modest scoring rates and Deportivo La Guaira's home games are particularly low-scoring, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Deportivo La Guaira average 1.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match overall.
- Zamora Barinas average 1.2 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match.
- Deportivo La Guaira home matches have seen only 7 total goals in 6 games (1.17 per game).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Deportivo La Guaira's strong home defense and Zamora's recent scoring struggles make it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- Deportivo La Guaira have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 league matches.
- Zamora Barinas have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Deportivo La Guaira have conceded only 1 goal in 6 home games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The home team's defensive solidity at home and Zamora's low away scoring output support a home clean sheet.
- Deportivo La Guaira have conceded only 1 goal in 6 home matches.
- Zamora Barinas have scored only 7 goals in 7 away matches.
- Deportivo La Guaira kept clean sheets in 5 of 13 league games.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostZamora Barinas not to scoreEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Deportivo La Guaira average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Zamora Barinas average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.2 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open as teams push for results, but the low overall scoring rates make this a low-confidence lean.
- Deportivo La Guaira score 0.5 goals per second half on average.
- Zamora Barinas score 0.7 goals per second half on average.
- Combined second-half goal average is 1.2, but variance is higher.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Deportivo La Guaira's low corner count and Zamora's likely low possession indicate a low total corner count.
- Deportivo La Guaira average 4 corners per match.
- Zamora Barinas corner data is unavailable, but their low possession suggests fewer corners.
- Combined corner average from available data is below 9.5.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Deportivo La Guaira's moderate card count and Zamora's low foul numbers suggest a low total card count.
- Deportivo La Guaira average 2.3 yellow cards per match.
- Zamora Barinas card data is unavailable, but their foul count is low.
- Combined card average is likely below 4.5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 84.7% leaves no cushion vs our 78% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

D1-1Zamora FCvDeportivo La GuairaFeb 23, 2026PRI

L2-0Zamora FCvDeportivo La GuairaNov 4, 2025PRI

D1-1Deportivo La GuairavZamora FCOct 21, 2025PRI

W2-0Deportivo La GuairavZamora FCOct 4, 2025PRI

W1-2Zamora FCvDeportivo La GuairaApr 25, 2025PRI

2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera División 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	Deportivo La Guaira Promotion - Liga FUTVE (Apertura - Quadrangular)	13	7	6	0	15-6	27	WDWDW
9	Zamora Barinas	13	4	5	4	14-14	17	DDDWW

10pt gap between teamsDeportivo La Guaira leads the league

Recent Form

Deportivo La Guaira

W2-1Caracas FCAug 10PRI

L1-2Metropolitanos FCAug 5PRI

W2-1Monagas SCAug 1PRI

L0-2Puerto CabelloMay 31PRI

L1-3FluminenseMay 28CON

W2-0Portuguesa FCMay 23PRI

L2-4Independ. RivadaviaMay 21CON

D0-0UCVMay 15PRI

D1-1UCVMay 12PRI

D1-1Portuguesa FCMay 9PRI

D1-1BolívarMay 6CON

D1-1Puerto CabelloMay 3PRI

L1-4Independ. RivadaviaApr 30CON

W1-0Trujillanos FCApr 25PRI

D0-0Portuguesa FCApr 20PRI

Zamora Barinas

L0-1Puerto CabelloAug 9PRI

L0-1Estudiantes de Merida FCAug 6PRI

W2-1Rayo ZulianoAug 2PRI

W6-1Atletico el Vigia FCJun 24COP

D1-1Anzoátegui FCApr 25PRI

D1-1Caracas FCApr 20PRI

D0-0Metropolitanos FCApr 11PRI

W2-1Monagas SCApr 4PRI

W3-0Trujillanos FCMar 22PRI

L0-2Portuguesa FCMar 18PRI

L1-2Deportivo Tachira FCMar 15PRI

D0-0Carabobo FCMar 7PRI

L1-2UCVFeb 28PRI

D1-1Deportivo La GuairaFeb 23PRI

L0-2Puerto CabelloFeb 14PRI

Squad & Injuries

Deportivo La Guaira

37 available

Attackers9

Midfielders13

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Zamora Barinas

25 available

Attackers11

Midfielders5

Defenders8

Goalkeeper1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Deportivo La Guaira

Deportivo La Guaira or Draw

Under 2.5

No

Under 1.5

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Deportivo La Guaira, draw no bet

Under 2.5

No

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Deportivo La Guaira

Zamora Barinas

Squad & Injuries

Deportivo La Guaira

Zamora Barinas