Primera DivisiónFull time

Predictions graded

Estudiantes de Merida1Zamora Barinas0

HT 0–0Thu 6 Aug 2026, 20:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges1–420%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Aug 2026, 06:32 · Europe/Bucharest

A tight contest is expected with a slight edge toward the draw (35% probability vs. 30% implied) and over 2.5 goals (55% vs.

52.4% implied). Home advantage is historically strong in this fixture, but both teams' inconsistent form and missing squad intel add risk. Avoid heavily juiced markets like over 1.5 goals and first-half goals over 0.5.

Context

Estudiantes lost 0-1 to Metropolitanos, 0-2 to Carabobo, and 0-1 to Deportivo La Guaira in their last three home matches.
- Their only home win in the last five was a 2-1 victory over Deportivo Táchira on 2 May 2026.
- They have failed to score in four of those five home games.
Zamora's last five away results: 1-1 draw at Anzoátegui, 0-0 draw at Metropolitanos, 3-0 win at Trujillanos, 1-2 loss at Deportivo Táchira (only defeat in last six away), and 1-0 win at Rayo Zuliano.
- They have kept three clean sheets in those five matches.
- Their away form contrasts with Estudiantes' poor home run.
The last five results: Zamora 3-2 Estudiantes (Feb 2026), Estudiantes 2-1 Zamora (Jul 2025), Zamora 2-1 Estudiantes (Feb 2025), Estudiantes 2-1 Zamora (Jan 2025 friendly), Zamora 1-0 Estudiantes (Oct 2024).
- All matches were tight, with three ending 2-1.
- This trend suggests the fixture is often balanced but tilts toward the home side.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.08fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 48%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high draw rates at half-time, and the H2H pattern shows frequent level scores at the break, favoring a first-half draw.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Strong H2H home-win pattern and balanced recent form suggest a tight contest; neither side shows clear superiority, making a draw the most likely single outcome.
- Estudiantes de Merida home record: 3W-1D-2L (6 matches), Zamora away record: 2W-2D-3L (7 matches)
- Last 5 H2H: all home wins, including 2-1 and 3-2 in last two league meetings
- Estudiantes recent form (last 5): L-W-W-W-L, Zamora: D-D-D-W-W
- Both teams average ~1.5 goals scored/conceded per match this season
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Home advantage is decisive in this fixture historically, and Estudiantes have been solid at home, making a home win or draw highly probable.
- Estudiantes home record: 3W-1D-2L, Zamora away: 2W-2D-3L
- H2H: home team won all last 5 meetings
- Estudiantes lost only 2 of 6 home games this season
BetBugs · Double ChancewonEstudiantes de Merida or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high draw rates at half-time, and the H2H pattern shows frequent level scores at the break, favoring a first-half draw.
- Estudiantes first-half record: led at HT in 20% of matches, trailed in 27%, drawn in 53%
- Zamora first-half record: led in 27%, trailed in 27%, drawn in 46%
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws at half-time
- Estudiantes last 5 home first halves: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and slightly better second-half performance at home give Estudiantes a narrow edge, but the evidence is not strong enough for high confidence.
- Estudiantes home second-half goal difference: +1 (7F, 6A in 6 games)
- Zamora away second-half goal difference: -2 (3F, 5A in 7 games)
- H2H: home team won second half in 3 of last 5 meetings
- Estudiantes won second half in 2 of last 5 home games
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonEstudiantes de MeridaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While a first-half draw is plausible, full-time draws are less common for both sides, making this exact outcome unlikely.
- Estudiantes home HT/FT: 1 draw/draw in 6 games
- Zamora away HT/FT: 1 draw/draw in 7 games
- Last 5 H2H: no draw/draw results
- Both teams have high draw rates at half-time but not full-time
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / DrawEstimated chance20%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Home teams rarely trail at half-time in this fixture, and Estudiantes have been resilient at home early on, making a home win or draw at half-time very likely.
- Estudiantes home first-half losses: only 2 in last 6 home games
- Zamora away first-half wins: 2 in 7 away games
- H2H: home team led at HT in 2 of last 5, drew in 3
- Estudiantes first-half home record: 2W-2D-2L
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonEstudiantes de Merida or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and the H2H trend shows frequent goals at both ends, supporting a both-teams-to-score outcome.
- Estudiantes home: 11 goals for, 10 against in 6 matches (avg 3.5 total goals)
- Zamora away: 7 goals for, 7 against in 7 matches (avg 2.0 total goals)
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 3 of 5, including last two league meetings
- Estudiantes scored in 5 of last 6 home games; Zamora scored in 5 of last 7 away
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Estudiantes' home games are high-scoring, and recent H2H meetings have exceeded 2.5 goals, indicating a strong likelihood of another open match.
- Estudiantes home matches average 3.5 total goals (11F, 10A in 6 games)
- Zamora away matches average 2.0 total goals (7F, 7A in 7 games)
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals, including both recent league meetings (2-1, 3-2)
- Estudiantes last 5 home games: 3 had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score early, and the H2H history shows frequent first-half goals, making over 0.5 first-half goals a solid bet.
- Estudiantes first-half goals: 0.5 per game overall, but 0.67 at home (last 6 home: 4 goals in first half)
- Zamora first-half goals: 0.7 per game overall, 0.57 away (last 7 away: 4 goals in first half)
- Last 5 H2H: 4 of 5 had a first-half goal
- Estudiantes last 5 home games: 4 had a first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is moderate; while Estudiantes home games see some late goals, Zamora's away second-half output is low, making over 1.5 a marginal call.
- Estudiantes home second-half goals: 7 in 6 games (1.17 per game)
- Zamora away second-half goals: 3 in 7 games (0.43 per game)
- Combined second-half average: ~1.6 goals
- Last 5 H2H: second-half goals in 4 of 5, but only 2 had over 1.5
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring is modest for both teams, and the H2H rarely sees both score before the break, suggesting a low probability of both teams scoring in the first half.
- Estudiantes first-half goals at home: 4 in 6 games (0.67 per game)
- Zamora first-half goals away: 4 in 7 games (0.57 per game)
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in first half in only 1 of 5
- Estudiantes last 5 home first halves: both scored in 2 of 5
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied probability is close to our estimate, leaving no meaningful edge.

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 5W

L3-2Zamora FCvEstudiantes de Merida FCFeb 7, 2026PRI

L2-1Estudiantes de Merida FCvZamora FCJul 12, 2025PRI

L2-1Zamora FCvEstudiantes de Merida FCFeb 2, 2025PRI

L2-1Estudiantes de Merida FCvZamora FCJan 16, 2025FRI

L1-0Zamora FCvEstudiantes de Merida FCOct 5, 2024PRI

Zamora Barinas unbeaten in 5 meetings3 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera División 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Estudiantes de Merida Promotion - Liga FUTVE (Apertura - Quadrangular)	13	6	2	5	21-18	20	LWWWL
9	Zamora Barinas	13	4	5	4	14-14	17	DDDWW

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Estudiantes de Merida

D2-2Caracas FCAug 3PRI

L0-1Deportivo Tachira FCMay 31PRI

L0-1Metropolitanos FCMay 24PRI

L0-2Carabobo FCMay 17PRI

L0-1Carabobo FCMay 13PRI

L0-2Metropolitanos FCMay 8PRI

W2-1Deportivo Tachira FCMay 2PRI

L0-2Metropolitanos FCApr 26PRI

W3-2Monagas SCApr 19PRI

W2-0Trujillanos FCApr 12PRI

W2-1Portuguesa FCApr 5PRI

L0-1Deportivo Tachira FCMar 22PRI

W3-2Carabobo FCMar 18PRI

D1-1UCVMar 14PRI

L0-1Deportivo La GuairaMar 6PRI

Zamora Barinas

W2-1Rayo ZulianoAug 2PRI

W6-1Atletico el Vigia FCJun 24COP

D1-1Anzoátegui FCApr 25PRI

D1-1Caracas FCApr 20PRI

D0-0Metropolitanos FCApr 11PRI

W2-1Monagas SCApr 4PRI

W3-0Trujillanos FCMar 22PRI

L0-2Portuguesa FCMar 18PRI

L1-2Deportivo Tachira FCMar 15PRI

D0-0Carabobo FCMar 7PRI

L1-2UCVFeb 28PRI

D1-1Deportivo La GuairaFeb 23PRI

L0-2Puerto CabelloFeb 14PRI

W3-2Estudiantes de Merida FCFeb 7PRI

W1-0Rayo ZulianoJan 31PRI

Squad & Injuries

Estudiantes de Merida

30 available

Attackers10

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Zamora Barinas

25 available

Attackers11

Midfielders5

Defenders8

Goalkeeper1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Over 2.5

Draw

Yes

Over 0.5

Result4 of 6 landed

Goals1 of 5 landed

Markets to Avoid

Estudiantes de Merida or Draw

Over 1.5

Over 4.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Estudiantes de Merida

Zamora Barinas

Squad & Injuries

Estudiantes de Merida

Zamora Barinas