EredivisieFull time

Predictions graded

Den Haag1Groningen4

HT 0–3Sun 16 Aug 2026, 10:15 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 10–17On targetOn target 4–14CornersCorners 5–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 02:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Draw or Groningen (Double Chance) at 1.45 for a small value edge, as Den Haag's promotion adjustment and missing captain Jari Vlak make them vulnerable.

For a higher-risk play, Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.20 offers a +9.5-point edge based on both teams' second-half scoring trends.

Context

Vlak was ADO's captain and the previous season's Eerste Divisie player of the year.
- He completed a transfer to CD Castellón on 8 July, confirmed by Cadena SER.
- ADO have not yet shown they have replaced his midfield role effectively.
ADO confirmed promotion from the Keuken Kampioen Divisie on 22 June 2026.
- They lost their opening Eredivisie match 0-2 away to AZ Alkmaar.
- Their last 8 home matches in the Eerste Divisie yielded 7 wins and 1 draw, but the step up in class is significant.
Last three meetings: ADO 0-2 Groningen, Groningen 0-1 ADO, Groningen 3-0 ADO.
- All three results were clean-sheet wins.
- Groningen won 2-0 at ADO Den Haag on 29 March 2024.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.55fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent form shows high-scoring games, with Den Haag averaging 2.2 goals scored and Groningen conceding 1.4 per match.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.48fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Despite H2H history, both teams have scored in most recent matches, and defensive vulnerabilities exist on both sides.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Den Haag's quick starts (0.9 first-half goals, 60% leading at HT) make a first-half goal likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Groningen's positive start and Den Haag's key absence and poor opening result give the visitors an edge, supported by recent H2H dominance.
- Groningen won their opening Eredivisie match 2-1, while Den Haag lost 0-2 away.
- Den Haag are missing captain Jari Vlak, a key midfield leader, which weakens their structure.
- Groningen won 2 of the last 3 H2H meetings, including a 2-0 away win at Den Haag in March 2024.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGroningenEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Den Haag's strong lower-league home record may not translate immediately to Eredivisie, and Groningen's solid away form makes them unlikely to lose.
- Den Haag lost their only league match this season, while Groningen won theirs.
- Den Haag's home form in last 15 includes 7 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, but all were in Eerste Divisie; step up in class is significant.
- Groningen have not lost in 4 of their last 5 competitive away matches (Eredivisie and Eerste Divisie).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or GroningenEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Den Haag's strong first-half record at home in recent form gives them a slight edge, but the step up in competition and H2H history make this a low-confidence call.
- Den Haag led at halftime in 60% of their last 15 matches, while Groningen led in only 40%.
- Den Haag scored first-half goals in 10 of last 15, Groningen in 8 of 15.
- In the last 5 H2H, Den Haag led at halftime once, Groningen twice, and 2 were draws.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDen HaagEstimated chance38%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent ability to produce high-scoring games in recent form, and the H2H pattern supports goals, making Over 2.5 likely.
- Den Haag averaged 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over last 15 matches, with 11 of those 15 seeing over 2.5 total goals.
- Groningen's last 15 matches averaged 2.7 total goals (1.3 scored, 1.4 conceded), with 8 of 15 over 2.5.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals, including the most recent 0-2 and 3-0 results.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Despite H2H history of clean sheets, both teams' recent scoring and conceding patterns indicate a higher likelihood of both finding the net.
- Den Haag scored in 12 of their last 15 matches, while Groningen scored in 10 of their last 15.
- Den Haag conceded in 7 of last 15, Groningen conceded in 10 of last 15, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
- In the last 5 H2H, both teams scored in only 1 match, but current form suggests a shift from historical clean-sheet trend.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Den Haag's tendency to start quickly and Groningen's moderate first-half involvement suggest at least one goal before the break is probable.
- Den Haag averaged 0.9 first-half goals in last 15 matches, with 60% leading at halftime.
- Groningen averaged 0.6 first-half goals and conceded 0.5 in first halves over last 15.
- In Den Haag's last 5 competitive matches, 4 had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to see more goals after halftime, and with potential fatigue and tactical adjustments, over 1.5 second-half goals is a reasonable expectation.
- Den Haag's last 15 matches averaged 1.3 second-half goals (2.2 total - 0.9 first half).
- Groningen's last 15 matches averaged 1.4 second-half goals (1.3 total - 0.6 first half).
- In the last 5 H2H, second halves produced 1, 1, 2, 1, 0 goals respectively, averaging 1.0.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent corner averages hover around 10.9 per game, and the limited H2H data shows high corner counts, suggesting over 9.5 is slightly favored.
- Den Haag averaged 6.4 corners for and 4.5 against in last 15, totaling 10.9 per match.
- Groningen averaged 5.0 corners for and 5.9 against in last 15, totaling 10.9 per match.
- In the last 5 H2H with corner data (only 2 matches), totals were 16 and 13 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Den Haag's home corner numbers and Groningen's tendency to concede corners on the road support a slight edge for over 5.5 home corners.
- Den Haag averaged 6.4 corners per match overall in last 15, and at home they averaged 6.8 in last 7 home games.
- Groningen conceded an average of 5.9 corners per match in last 15, and away they conceded 6.3 in last 7 away games.
- In the only recent H2H with corner data at Den Haag, Den Haag earned 7 corners.
BetBugs · Home CornerslostDen Haag over 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined averages are just below the line, but the competitive nature of an early-season Eredivisie match could push the total slightly over 3.5 cards.
- Den Haag averaged 1.7 yellow cards in last 15, Groningen also 1.7, totaling 3.4 per match on average.
- In Den Haag's last 5 competitive matches, total cards were 2, 3, 4, 4, 3 (avg 3.2).
- In Groningen's last 5 competitive matches, total cards were 2, 2, 3, 2, 3 (avg 2.4).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance53%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 82% leaves no cushion vs our 65% estimate; odds too short for a MEDIUM-confidence play.

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

W0-2ADO Den HaagvGroningenMar 29, 2024EER

W0-1GroningenvADO Den HaagSep 15, 2023EER

L3-0GroningenvADO Den HaagJan 26, 2021ERE

W0-1ADO Den HaagvGroningenSep 20, 2020ERE

D0-0GroningenvADO Den HaagMay 3, 2020ERE

Den Haag: 4 clean sheetsGroningen: 2 clean sheets1.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Eredivisie 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
16	Den Haag Eredivisie (Relegation)	1	0	0	1	0-2	0	L
6	Groningen Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)	1	1	0	0	2-1	3	W

3pt gap between teamsGroningen leads the leagueDen Haag in relegation zone

Recent Form

Den Haag

L0-2AZ AlkmaarAug 8ERE

D0-0Asteras TripolisJul 31FRI

W4-0Lommel UnitedJul 24FRI

W3-2KV MechelenJul 18FRI

W5-1LaakkwartierJul 4FRI

W3-1Den BoschApr 24EER

W5-1WaalwijkApr 17EER

L0-1DordrechtApr 12EER

W4-0FC EindhovenApr 6EER

W4-2Jong AjaxApr 3EER

W2-1De GraafschapMar 22EER

W1-0Jong UtrechtMar 17EER

W1-0EmmenMar 13EER

L0-1Almere City FCMar 7EER

W1-0VVV VenloFeb 27EER

Groningen

W2-1UtrechtAug 9ERE

W1-0ValladolidAug 1FRI

D0-0Volos NFCJul 25FRI

L0-4FC VolendamJul 24FRI

L1-2AEK Athens FCJul 18FRI

W3-2EmmenJul 11FRI

L1-2HeraclesJul 8FRI

L0-2AjaxMay 21ERE

W2-1HeraclesMay 17ERE

W2-1NEC NijmegenMay 10ERE

L2-3ExcelsiorMay 2ERE

L1-3FeyenoordApr 25ERE

D0-0GO Ahead EaglesApr 11ERE

W2-0TelstarApr 4ERE

W3-0AZ AlkmaarMar 22ERE

Squad & Injuries

Den Haag

26 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

Groningen

33 available

Attackers6

Midfielders11

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4