Willem II11 – 4NEC Nijmegen4

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Willem II's strong recent home form and NEC's midweek Champions League exertions give the hosts a clear edge, though NEC's overall quality keeps it competitive.

• Willem II won 4-1 at home vs NEC in Dec 2024, the most recent meeting at this venue.
• Willem II's last 5 competitive home matches (Eerste Divisie + Eredivisie): 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, 10 goals scored, 2 conceded.
• NEC played a Champions League qualifier away at Olympiacos just 3 days ago, likely causing fatigue and possible rotation.
• NEC lost their only Eredivisie match this season 1-2 at home to Telstar, while Willem II lost 1-4 away to Go Ahead Eagles.

BetBugs · Match WinnerlostWillem IIEstimated chance40%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Combining Willem II's formidable home record with NEC's travel fatigue and poor recent away form makes a home win or draw highly probable.

• Willem II are unbeaten in their last 5 competitive home matches (4W, 1D).
• NEC have not won any of their last 3 away matches across all competitions (2D, 1L).
• The last H2H at Willem II ended 4-1 to the home side.
• NEC's midweek Champions League trip to Greece adds significant travel fatigue.

BetBugs · Double ChancelostWillem II or DrawEstimated chance70%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Willem II's strong first-half performances at home contrast with NEC's tendency to start slowly, especially after a taxing midweek trip, giving the hosts a slight edge to lead at the break.

• Willem II led at half-time in 53% of their last 15 matches overall, compared to NEC's 27%.
• In Willem II's last 5 competitive home matches, they led at half-time in 3 (60%).
• NEC trailed at half-time in 47% of their last 15 matches, including 2 of their last 3 away matches.
• Willem II's first-half goal difference at home in recent competitive matches is +5 (7 scored, 2 conceded).

BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostWillem IIEstimated chance35%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

While not the most likely outcome, Willem II's pattern of strong first halves at home and NEC's potential fatigue make a home HT/FT result a plausible scenario.

• Willem II led at half-time and won in 3 of their last 5 competitive home matches.
• NEC trailed at half-time and lost in 2 of their last 5 competitive away matches.
• Willem II's overall leading-at-half-time rate is 53%, and they won 73% of matches where they led at HT.
• NEC's midweek fatigue increases the likelihood of a slow start and a home win.

BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostWillem II / Willem IIEstimated chance25%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams' recent matches have seen corner counts around 10-11 on average, and NEC's possession-based style should generate enough corners to push the total over 9.5.

• Willem II average 5.3 corners per game overall, NEC average 8.0 corners per game overall.
• In Willem II's last 5 competitive home matches with corner data, total corners averaged 10.6.
• In NEC's last 5 competitive away matches with corner data, total corners averaged 10.2.
• NEC's high possession (58% average) often leads to more corners.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The combined card averages and NEC's higher foul rate point to a match with a moderate number of bookings, likely exceeding 3.5 cards.

• Willem II average 1.3 yellow cards per game, NEC average 2.0 yellow cards per game.
• In Willem II's last 5 competitive home matches with card data, total cards averaged 3.8.
• In NEC's last 5 competitive away matches with card data, total cards averaged 4.2.
• NEC's foul count (13.3 per game) is higher than Willem II's (9.7), suggesting more card risk.