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Predictions graded

Mallorca2Real Valladolid0

HT 0–0Sat 15 Aug 2026, 19:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–730%

Edges2–529%

PossPossession 48%–52%ShotsShots 7–11On targetOn target 3–1CornersCorners 3–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 23:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Mallorca are rightly favoured at home, but the odds on a straight win offer no value.

The best betting edge is over 4.5 cards at 5.75, where the model sees a 60% probability against an implied 17.4%. Avoid the short-priced first-half goal and double chance markets.

Context

On 12 August, Valladolid's president said more than half of the new arrivals may be registered for Mallorca, but registering all of them for this match looked difficult.
- The situation was expected to be clearer for Eibar, suggesting this match comes too soon for full registration.
- This directly affects Valladolid's ability to field their intended starting XI and bench.
Mallorca averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over last 15 matches, with 53% leading at half-time.
- Home form includes wins over Real Madrid, Rayo Vallecano, and Espanyol in recent La Liga matches.
- Captain Sergi Darder said Mallorca's objective is promotion, ideally as champions, and described the Valladolid opener as the first serious test under new coach Luis García.
In their final friendly on 8 August, Valladolid trailed Sporting 2-0 after six minutes before substitutes helped turn it into a 2-4 win.
- The report identifies Latasa, Ponceau, Yeray, Marcos André and Lachuer as influential second-half changes.
- This pattern could repeat if Valladolid start slowly again, but their bench may rescue them later.
At Mallorca in Segunda División, Valladolid hold a narrow historical edge: five wins, two draws and four defeats from 11 meetings.
- Recent H2H at Mallorca includes a 1-0 Valladolid win in 2019-20 and a 1-5 Valladolid win in 2014-15.
- This historical pattern tempers confidence in a straightforward home win.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mallorca's stronger recent form and home advantage, combined with Valladolid's poor competitive results, support a home win, though Valladolid's historical edge at Son Moix tempers confidence.
- Mallorca averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over last 15 matches, with 53% leading at half-time.
- Home form includes wins over Real Madrid, Rayo Vallecano, and Espanyol in recent La Liga matches.
- Valladolid's last 5 competitive matches: 1W, 1D, 3L, scoring 3 and conceding 7.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMallorcaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mallorca's solid form and home advantage make them unlikely to lose, but Valladolid's historical competitiveness on the island suggests a draw is possible, so double chance home or draw is high probability.
- Mallorca lost only 3 of last 15 matches overall.
- Valladolid won only 1 of last 5 competitive matches.
- H2H at Mallorca: Valladolid have 5 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats in 11 meetings, indicating Mallorca are not dominant.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMallorca or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mallorca's strong first-half record and home advantage give them the edge to lead at the break, though a draw at half-time is also common.
- Mallorca led at half-time in 53% of recent matches.
- Valladolid trailed at half-time in 27% and led in 33%.
- Mallorca scored first-half goals in 10 of 15 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostMallorcaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mallorca's ability to start strong and hold leads supports this outcome, but Valladolid's resilience and historical record make it a low-probability pick.
- Mallorca led at half-time and won full-time in 5 of last 15 matches.
- Valladolid trailed at half-time and lost full-time in 3 of last 15.
- H2H at Mallorca shows mixed results, reducing confidence.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostMallorca/MallorcaEstimated chance30%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score and concede, and H2H often features goals, making over 2.5 slightly more likely than under.
- Mallorca's recent matches averaged 2.9 total goals (1.8 for, 1.1 against).
- Valladolid's recent matches averaged 2.3 total goals (1.3 for, 1.0 against).
- Last 5 H2H meetings produced 3, 3, 6, 1, 1 goals, averaging 2.8.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and H2H often sees both sides find the net, supporting a Yes prediction.
- Mallorca scored in 13 of last 15 matches.
- Valladolid scored in 10 of last 15 matches.
- In last 5 H2H, both teams scored in 3 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mallorca's tendency to score early and Valladolid's occasional first-half goals make at least one first-half goal likely.
- Mallorca averaged 0.9 first-half goals and 0.4 first-half goals conceded.
- Valladolid averaged 0.6 first-half goals and 0.5 first-half goals conceded.
- Mallorca led at half-time in 53% of matches, Valladolid in 33%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined second-half scoring average is near the line, but uncertainty about match flow makes this a low-confidence call.
- Mallorca's second-half goal difference is positive (1.8 total - 0.9 first half = 0.9 second half goals).
- Valladolid's second-half goal difference is 0.7 (1.3 - 0.6).
- Combined average second-half goals: 1.6.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate and concede corners at a rate near the line, making over/under a coin flip with low confidence.
- Mallorca averaged 4.6 corners for and 4.6 against (total 9.2) in recent matches.
- Valladolid averaged 4.8 corners for and 4.8 against (total 9.6).
- Combined average total corners: 9.4.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high card counts, especially Valladolid, making over 4.5 cards likely in a competitive opener.
- Mallorca averaged 2.1 yellow cards and 0.5 red cards per match.
- Valladolid averaged 2.7 yellow cards and 0.7 red cards per match.
- Combined average cards: 5.5 (including reds as 1 card).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 85% leaves no cushion vs our 75% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

W2-1MallorcavValladolidMay 10, 2025LL

W1-2ValladolidvMallorcaSep 27, 2024LL

D3-3ValladolidvMallorcaApr 9, 2023LL

W1-0MallorcavValladolidJan 7, 2023LL

L0-1MallorcavValladolidFeb 1, 2020LL

2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Segunda División 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	Mallorca	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
12	Real Valladolid	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

Mallorca leads the leagueReal Valladolid leads the league

Recent Form

Mallorca

D1-1SV ElversbergAug 8FRI

W3-0Paris Saint GermainAug 5FRI

W4-2Al-Ittihad FCJul 30FRI

W3-0Al-FatehJul 25FRI

W3-0OviedoMay 23LL

L0-2LevanteMay 17LL

L1-3GetafeMay 13LL

D1-1VillarrealMay 10LL

W1-0GironaMay 1LL

L1-2AlavesApr 25LL

D1-1ValenciaApr 21LL

W3-0Rayo VallecanoApr 12LL

W2-1Real MadridApr 4LL

L1-2ElcheMar 21LL

W2-1EspanyolMar 15LL

Real Valladolid

W4-2Sporting GijonAug 8FRI

W3-0Gimnástica SegovianaAug 5FRI

L0-1GroningenAug 1FRI

W4-1CD CoriaJul 29FRI

D0-0GetafeJul 25FRI

L0-1AlmeriaMay 31SEG

L0-2Deportivo La CorunaMay 24SEG

L1-4Racing SantanderMay 16SEG

W2-0ZaragozaMay 9SEG

L1-2Las PalmasMay 3SEG

W1-0Real Sociedad IIApr 25SEG

L0-1FC AndorraApr 19SEG

D0-0EibarApr 13SEG

L0-1Cultural LeonesaApr 4SEG

W3-0CadizMar 31SEG

Squad & Injuries

Mallorca

30 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Real Valladolid

34 available

Attackers15

Midfielders10

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 4.5

Mallorca or Draw

Mallorca

Mallorca

Over 0.5

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Mallorca or Draw

Mallorca

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Mallorca

Real Valladolid

Squad & Injuries

Mallorca

Real Valladolid