Draw or Atletico JBG
Market 69.4% · BetBugs 75%
Atletico JBG have lost only 2 of 20 league matches and are unbeaten in 10 away games, while Gualaceo have won just 1 of their last 5.
Liga Pro Serie BFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Atletico JBG are the stronger side and unlikely to lose, making 'Draw or Atletico JBG' at 1.44 the best value bet with a 75% estimated probability.
Goals are expected to be low, but the under 2.5 and both teams to score 'No' markets are overpriced and offer no edge. Avoid the heavily juiced first-half and second-half under 1.5 goals lines.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 2
Market 69.4% · BetBugs 75%
Atletico JBG have lost only 2 of 20 league matches and are unbeaten in 10 away games, while Gualaceo have won just 1 of their last 5.
Atletico JBGMarket 33.3% · BetBugs 45%
Atletico JBG's superior league position and unbeaten away record give them an edge, reinforced by their H2H win.
Other edges · 4
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 60% · Market 71.4%
Both teams average under 1.0 goals scored and conceded per match, with a combined average of 1.7 total goals, supporting a low-scoring game.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 52% leaves no cushion vs our 50% estimate; the price already reflects the draw tendency and offers no value.
Atletico JBG has fulfilled 4 of 5 win predictions, a strong 80% rate. The average estimated probability was 51%, but they won 80% of those matches, exceeding expectations. Their only miss was a draw at home against 9 de Octubre.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Gualaceo | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 16-16 | 25 |
| 3 | Atletico JBG | 20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 22-14 | 34 |

