USL League OneFull time

Predictions graded

Fort Wayne FC1Chattanooga Red Wolves2

HT 1–0Sat 15 Aug 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–450%

Edges4–267%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Aug 2026, 22:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Fort Wayne are slight favourites at home and have the only H2H win, but the market has already priced in their edge.

No main market offers value — the best angles (home win, double chance, BTTS, over 2.5) all have negative edges. This is a watch-and-learn fixture rather than a betting opportunity.

Context

Fort Wayne home record: 4W-3D-1L, 13 goals scored, 5 conceded in 8 home matches.
- Last three home matches: 0-2 loss to Union Omaha, 3-0 win over Greenville Triumph, 1-2 loss to Detroit City (USL League One Cup).
- Fort Wayne have kept three clean sheets at home this season.
Chattanooga away record: 3W-1D-4L, 14 goals scored, 17 conceded in 8 away matches.
- Chattanooga scored in 7 of 8 away matches and conceded in 7 of 8.
- Recent away results include a 4-2 win at Charlotte Independence and a 2-5 loss at Forward Madison.
H2H: Fort Wayne won 1-0 away on 2026-04-11.
- Taig Healy scored 44 seconds into the match.
- This is only the second competitive meeting between the teams.
The 2026 USL League One season is a 32-match single-table format.
- Only the top eight teams qualify for the single-elimination playoffs.
- This August fixture falls in the final stretch of the regular season.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Fort Wayne FC

2.10fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 47.6%

0.0ppshort

Fort Wayne's home record is solid (4W-3D-1L) but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate, so no value.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Fort Wayne FC or Draw

1.35fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 74.1%

−6.1ppshort

Our estimate of 68% is below the implied 74.1%, so the odds are too short for value.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.55fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams scored in 7 of 8 respective home/away splits, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate, leaving no value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Chattanooga's away games are high-scoring, but the combined trend and odds suggest the market has already priced in the over.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Combined first-half average of 1.4 goals suggests over 0.5 is likely, but the odds are too short to offer value.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 1.5

1.80fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

Combined second-half average of 1.7 goals supports over 1.5, but the odds are fair with no edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fort Wayne's strong home form and clean sheet in the only H2H give them a slight edge, but Chattanooga's overall points lead and recent wins keep this close.
- Fort Wayne home record: 4W-3D-1L, 13 goals scored, 5 conceded in 8 home matches
- Chattanooga away record: 3W-1D-4L, 14 goals scored, 17 conceded in 8 away matches
- Fort Wayne won the only H2H meeting 1-0 away in April
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFort Wayne FCEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fort Wayne's solid home form and H2H win make them unlikely to lose, but Chattanooga's quality means a draw is a real possibility.
- Fort Wayne home record: 4W-3D-1L, 13 goals scored, 5 conceded in 8 home matches
- Chattanooga away record: 3W-1D-4L, 14 goals scored, 17 conceded in 8 away matches
- Fort Wayne won the only H2H meeting 1-0 away in April
BetBugs · Double ChancelostFort Wayne FC or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first half is likely to be tight, with both teams having similar scoring rates and a high chance of being level at the break.
- Fort Wayne leading at half time in 40% of matches, trailing in 20%
- Chattanooga leading at half time in 27% of matches, trailing in 33%
- Both teams have similar first half goal averages (0.7 each)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a Fort Wayne win is plausible given their home strength and H2H edge, but the probability is low due to the specific sequence required.
- Fort Wayne home record: 4W-3D-1L, 13 goals scored, 5 conceded in 8 home matches
- Chattanooga away record: 3W-1D-4L, 14 goals scored, 17 conceded in 8 away matches
- Fort Wayne won the only H2H meeting 1-0 away in April
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Fort Wayne FCEstimated chance18%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chattanooga's away games are high-scoring, and Fort Wayne's home games are moderate, but the combined trend suggests over 2.5 is likely.
- Fort Wayne home matches average 2.25 total goals (13 scored, 5 conceded in 8 games)
- Chattanooga away matches average 3.875 total goals (14 scored, 17 conceded in 8 games)
- Chattanooga's last 5 away matches: 2, 7, 2, 3, 3 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS a strong possibility.
- Fort Wayne scored in 7 of 8 home matches
- Chattanooga scored in 7 of 8 away matches
- Chattanooga conceded in 7 of 8 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average nearly a goal per first half, making over 0.5 first half goals likely.
- Fort Wayne first half goals: 0.7 per match overall, 0.75 at home
- Chattanooga first half goals: 0.7 per match overall, 0.75 away
- Combined first half goals average 1.4 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second half tends to be more productive for both teams, with a combined average above 1.5 goals.
- Fort Wayne second half goals: 0.6 per match overall, 0.875 at home
- Chattanooga second half goals: 1.1 per match overall, 1.0 away
- Combined second half goals average 1.7 per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner data, we rely on league average, which suggests over 8.5 corners is a coin flip.
- No corner data available for either team in recent matches
- USL League One average corners per match is approximately 9.2
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific card data, we rely on league average, which suggests over 3.5 cards is a coin flip.
- No card data available for either team in recent matches
- USL League One average cards per match is approximately 3.8
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Fort Wayne FC has been highly reliable when projected Over 2.5 goals

Fort Wayne FC has fulfilled 5 of 6 Over 2.5 goals predictions, a strong 83% fulfilment rate. The average estimated probability was 55%, with an expected 3.3 fulfilled predictions, so actual results exceeded expectation. All six predictions had the same 55% probability, and the current prediction of 55% sits within that historical range.

Recent evidence for Fort Wayne FC6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·USL League One