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Predictions graded

Deportivo Cuenca1Manta2

HT 1–1Tue 11 Aug 2026, 00:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–820%

Edges2–433%

PossPossession 65%–35%ShotsShots 27–8On targetOn target 9–4CornersCorners 8–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Aug 2026, 08:28 · Europe/Bucharest

The strongest betting edge is under 0.5 first-half goals at 2.40, with a 60% estimated probability versus a 41.7% implied chance.

Avoid the outright Cuenca win at short odds, as their inconsistent home form doesn't justify the price. Expect a tight, low-scoring match where Manta's attacking woes continue.

Context

Manta average 0.39 goals per game across the season.
- They scored only 4 goals in 11 away matches.
- In their last 5 matches, Manta scored 2 goals and lost 4 times.
The last three H2H results: 1-0, 2-0, 3-1 all in Cuenca's favor.
- Cuenca kept two clean sheets in those three wins.
- Manta have not beaten Cuenca in any of the last five meetings.
Cuenca led at half-time in only 7% of their last 15 matches.
- Manta led at half-time in only 7% of their last 15 matches.
- Manta trailed at half-time in 47% of matches, but rarely score early.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Strong H2H dominance and Manta's poor away form and overall season performance give Cuenca a clear edge, though Cuenca's own inconsistency limits confidence.
- Deportivo Cuenca won last 3 H2H meetings, keeping 2 clean sheets.
- Manta have lost 15 of 23 league matches this season, scoring only 9 goals.
- Cuenca home record: 4W-3D-4L, but Manta away record: 1W-2D-8L with 4 goals scored in 11 away games.
- Manta form last 5: LLDLL, scoring 2 goals and conceding 6.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDeportivo CuencaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Manta's extremely low win rate, especially away, combined with Cuenca's solid home form and H2H history makes a Cuenca win or draw highly probable.
- Manta have won only 3 of 23 league matches this season.
- Manta away record: 1 win in 11, with 8 losses.
- Cuenca have lost only 4 of 11 home matches.
- H2H: Cuenca unbeaten in last 5 meetings (4W, 1D).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDeportivo Cuenca or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams rarely lead at half-time, with a high frequency of draws at the break, making a drawn first half the most likely outcome.
- Cuenca led at half-time in only 7% of last 15 matches.
- Manta led at half-time in only 7% of last 15 matches.
- Cuenca's last 5 matches: 2 draws, 3 losses at half-time.
- Manta's last 5 matches: 4 draws, 1 loss at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half is expected, but Cuenca's superior quality and Manta's tendency to fade could lead to a home win after a level first half, though the specific sequence is low probability.
- Cuenca have won 4 of 11 home matches, often with second-half goals.
- Manta have lost 8 of 11 away matches, frequently conceding after half-time.
- H2H: Cuenca scored second-half goals in 3 of last 4 wins.
- Cuenca's last 5 home matches: 2 wins, both with second-half goals.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Deportivo CuencaEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams struggle to score, with Manta being the league's lowest scorers, and recent H2H matches have been low-scoring, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Manta have scored only 9 goals in 23 league matches (0.39 per game).
- Cuenca average 0.7 goals per game over last 15 matches.
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 3 had under 2.5 goals.
- Manta's last 5 matches: 4 had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Manta's severe scoring struggles, especially away, and Cuenca's recent defensive success in H2H suggest at least one team will fail to score.
- Manta failed to score in 14 of 23 league matches this season.
- Cuenca kept clean sheets in 2 of last 3 H2H meetings.
- Manta scored only 4 goals in 11 away matches.
- Cuenca conceded in 8 of 11 home matches, but Manta's attack is very weak.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Manta's defense is porous, especially on the road, and Cuenca consistently find the net at home, making a Manta clean sheet very unlikely.
- Manta have kept only 2 clean sheets in 23 league matches this season.
- Manta away: conceded in 10 of 11 matches, 17 goals against.
- Cuenca have scored in 8 of 11 home matches.
- H2H: Manta conceded in all 5 recent meetings.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostDeportivo Cuenca to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have very low first-half scoring rates, and recent H2H matches often go scoreless in the first half, pointing to a 0-0 half-time score.
- Cuenca average 0.3 first-half goals in last 15 matches.
- Manta average 0.2 first-half goals in last 15 matches.
- Manta trailed at half-time in 47% of matches.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 were 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate relatively few corners, and recent matches involving these sides tend to stay under 10 total corners.
- Cuenca average 4.3 corners per match in last 15.
- Manta average 4.5 corners per match in last 15.
- Last 5 H2H: average total corners 7.6.
- Manta's last 5 matches: average total corners 7.8.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Manta's high card count and the competitive nature of the fixture could push total cards over 4.5, though H2H history is slightly below.
- Cuenca average 2.1 yellow cards per match in last 15.
- Manta average 2.8 yellow cards per match in last 15.
- Manta received 7 yellow cards in one recent match.
- Last 5 H2H: average 4.2 cards per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 64% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

5W · 0D · 0W

W0-1Manta FCvDeportivo CuencaApr 19, 2026LIG

W0-1Manta FCvDeportivo CuencaAug 23, 2025LIG

W2-0Deportivo CuencavManta FCMay 3, 2025LIG

W1-3Manta FCvDeportivo CuencaJul 22, 2024COP

W1-0Deportivo CuencavManta FCAug 7, 2021LIG

Deportivo Cuenca unbeaten in 5 meetingsDeportivo Cuenca: 4 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Liga Pro 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Deportivo Cuenca	23	9	4	10	21-28	31	LWLLD
16	Manta Relegation Playoffs	23	3	5	15	9-29	14	LLDLL

17pt gap between teamsManta in relegation zone

Recent Form