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Predictions graded

CSD Macara3Deportivo Cuenca0

HT 1–0Wed 22 Jul 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–456%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 14–10On targetOn target 6–2CornersCorners 4–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Jul 2026, 23:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Expect a low-scoring grind: under 2.5 goals (72% estimate vs.

1.53 odds) and under 0.5 first-half goals (65% estimate vs. 2.40 odds) offer the best value, driven by Cuenca's financial crisis, attacking woes, and a H2H history of tight, goalless first halves. Cards over 4.5 is also worth a look, but avoid match winner and short-odds BTTS markets where prices are fair or juiced.

Context

Club president Eduardo Alvarez confirmed the accounts were frozen and said the club must 'make magic' to operate week to week.
- Some staff are owed more than three months of wages, and sponsor money remains delayed.
- The crisis emerged just five days before this match, leaving little time for resolution.
Cuenca played away at Leones del Norte on July 15 and hosted Universidad Catolica on July 18.
- The quick turnaround leaves only three days of rest before this July 22 fixture.
- No major injury absences are reported, but the workload could affect sharpness and second-half performance.
Manso replaced Luis Escalada as sporting director, while Jorge Celico remained head coach.
- Nardelli, a 26-year-old centre-back, was added as a reinforcement for the second phase.
- The changes occurred just two weeks before this match, so the new setup may not be fully integrated.
Cuenca won 1-0 in December 2025, 1-0 in April 2025, and 2-1 in a February 2026 friendly at this venue.
- The only exception was a 1-1 draw in August 2025.
- Macara's home form this season is solid (5W-2D-3L), but the H2H trend indicates Cuenca can compete here.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Macara's strong recent form and home advantage give them an edge, but Cuenca's decent away record and H2H success at this venue prevent higher confidence.
- Macara home record: 5W-2D-3L (17 points from 10 home games).
- Deportivo Cuenca away record: 5W-1D-4L (16 points from 10 away games).
- Macara last 5 league form: W-W-W-D-L (10 points).
- Cuenca last 5 league form: L-D-L-L-W (4 points).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCSD MacaraEstimated chance48%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Macara's strong home form and Cuenca's inconsistency on the road make a home win or draw highly probable, supported by H2H trends at this venue.
- Macara home league: lost only 3 of 10 (70% unbeaten).
- Cuenca away league: won 5 of 10, but lost 4 of 10.
- Last 5 league H2H at Macara: Cuenca won 2, Macara won 1, 2 draws.
- Macara's last 5 home league matches: 3W-1D-1L.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCSD Macara or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cuenca's inability to lead at half-time away and the high frequency of H2H draws at the break suggest a stalemate at half-time is the most probable outcome.
- Macara home league: led at half-time in 33% of matches, trailed in 20%.
- Deportivo Cuenca away league: led at half-time in 0% of matches, trailed in 47%.
- Last 5 league H2H: 3 draws at half-time.
- Cuenca's last 5 league matches: 3 draws at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Macara's superior recent second-half performances and home advantage give them a slight edge, but the low confidence reflects the narrow margins in this fixture.
- Macara home league: won second half in 4 of 10, drew in 4, lost in 2.
- Deportivo Cuenca away league: won second half in 3 of 10, drew in 3, lost in 4.
- Macara's last 5 league matches: won second half in 3, drew in 1, lost in 1.
- Cuenca's last 5 league matches: won second half in 1, drew in 1, lost in 3.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableCSD MacaraEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The pattern of a tight first half followed by a Macara breakthrough is plausible given their home form and Cuenca's second-half vulnerabilities, but the specific sequence is rare.
- Macara home league: 2 of 10 matches were draw at HT and Macara win at FT.
- Deportivo Cuenca away league: 1 of 10 matches were draw at HT and Cuenca lose at FT.
- Last 5 league H2H: 1 match was draw at HT and Macara win at FT.
- Macara's last 5 home league matches: 1 draw at HT and Macara win at FT.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/CSD MacaraEstimated chance28%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Strong H2H pattern of low-scoring encounters combined with both teams' home/away goal averages well below 2.5 supports a high probability for under 2.5 goals.
- Last 5 league H2H: 4 of 5 stayed under 2.5 goals (1-1, 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 0-1).
- Macara home league matches: 7 of 10 under 2.5 goals (12 goals for, 9 against in 10 home games).
- Deportivo Cuenca away league matches: 7 of 10 under 2.5 goals (8 goals for, 9 against in 10 away games).
- Cuenca's last 5 league matches: 4 of 5 under 2.5 goals (0-2, 1-1, 0-1, 0-2, 1-0).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
H2H history shows both teams scoring is rare, and Cuenca's attacking struggles (2 goals in last 5 league games) make it likely at least one side fails to score.
- Macara home league: clean sheets in 4 of 10, conceded in 6 of 10.
- Deportivo Cuenca away league: failed to score in 4 of 10, scored in 6 of 10.
- Last 5 league H2H: both teams scored in only 1 of 5 (1-1, 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 0-1).
- Cuenca's recent form: scored only 2 goals in last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring averages, and H2H history shows frequent goalless first halves, making under 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Macara home league first half: 0.6 goals for, 0.4 goals against per match.
- Deportivo Cuenca away league first half: 0.3 goals for, 0.8 goals against per match.
- Last 5 league H2H: 0-0 at half-time in 3 of 5 matches.
- Cuenca's last 5 league matches: 0-0 at half-time in 3 of 5.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
While first halves are tight, both teams tend to concede or score more after the break, and H2H data shows second-half goals are common.
- Macara home league: 1.1 goals per match overall, with 0.6 in first half, implying 0.5 in second half.
- Deportivo Cuenca away league: 0.8 goals per match overall, with 0.3 in first half, implying 0.5 in second half.
- Last 5 league H2H: second-half goals in 4 of 5 matches.
- Cuenca's last 5 league matches: second-half goals in 4 of 5.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
H2H matches often produce a moderate number of corners, and both teams' averages suggest a total around 9-10, but inconsistent data lowers confidence.
- Macara home league: average 5.9 corners per match, opponent corners not consistently available but estimated 4-5 against.
- Deportivo Cuenca away league: average 4.2 corners per match, opponent corners estimated 4-5.
- Last 5 league H2H with corner data: 3 of 5 had 9+ corners (9, 8, 9, 7, 8).
- Macara's last 5 home league matches with corner data: 3 of 5 had 9+ corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average over 2 cards per game, and H2H encounters are typically feisty, making over 4.5 cards a reasonable expectation.
- Macara home league: average 2.2 yellow cards per match, 0.5 red cards.
- Deportivo Cuenca away league: average 2.3 yellow cards per match, 0.5 red cards.
- Last 5 league H2H with card data: 4 of 5 had 5+ cards (5, 6, 4, 5, 5).
- Cuenca's last 5 league matches: 4 of 5 had 5+ cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

3W · 2D · 0W

D1-1Deportivo CuencavMacaraMar 21, 2026LIG

W1-2MacaravDeportivo CuencaFeb 14, 2026FRI

W0-1MacaravDeportivo CuencaDec 13, 2025LIG

W0-2Deportivo CuencavMacaraNov 8, 2025LIG

D1-1Deportivo CuencavMacaraAug 2, 2025LIG

CSD Macara unbeaten in 5 meetingsCSD Macara: 2 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Liga Pro 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	CSD Macara Play-offs	20	8	5	7	21-21	29	LWWWD
7	Deportivo Cuenca	20	8	4	8	19-23	28	LDLLW

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

CSD Macara

L1-2Delfin SCJul 18LIG

W2-1Mushuc Runa SCJul 14LIG

W2-0Tecnico UniversitarioJul 11LIG

W1-0LDU de QuitoJul 5LIG

W1-0Deportivo Cuenca JuniorsJun 4COP

D1-1Leones del NorteJun 1LIG

D0-0America de CaliMay 29CON

L0-2EmelecMay 24LIG

D0-0Alianza AtleticoMay 22CON

L0-3Independiente del ValleMay 16LIG

W1-0Manta FCMay 10LIG

D2-2TigreMay 7CON

L1-2Orense SCMay 3LIG

W2-0Alianza AtleticoMay 1CON

W3-0LibertadApr 26LIG

Deportivo Cuenca

L0-2Universidad CatolicaJul 18LIG

D1-1Leones del NorteJul 15LIG

L0-1AucasJul 12LIG

L0-2Barcelona SCJul 5LIG

W1-0Delfin SCMay 31LIG

L0-3SantosMay 27CON

D1-1LDU de QuitoMay 24LIG

D2-2Deportivo RecoletaMay 20CON

W1-0LibertadMay 16LIG

W1-0Guayaquil City FCMay 9LIG

D0-0San LorenzoMay 6CON

W2-1Tecnico UniversitarioMay 2LIG

D0-0Deportivo RecoletaApr 29CON

L1-4Mushuc Runa SCApr 25LIG

L1-3Orense SCApr 22LIG

Squad & Injuries

CSD Macara

30 available

Attackers6

Midfielders13

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Deportivo Cuenca

29 available

Attackers8

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

No

Under 0.5

Draw

Over 4.5

CSD Macara or Draw

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

No

CSD Macara

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

CSD Macara

Deportivo Cuenca

Squad & Injuries

CSD Macara

Deportivo Cuenca