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Predictions graded

NS Mura1Radomlje3

HT 0–1Mon 10 Aug 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges5–183%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Aug 2026, 00:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Expect an open game with goals, as both teams have leaky defenses and a history of high-scoring meetings.

However, the betting markets are efficient, with no significant value on standard lines like over 2.5 goals or both teams to score. Avoid backing NS Mura in first-half or full-time markets due to their slow starts.

Context

Mura beat Olimpija 1-0 at home on 25 July 2026.
- Mura's last five home league matches: 3 wins, 2 draws.
- Radomlje have lost both home games this season and drew their only away game.
Mura conceded in 9 of last 10 home league matches.
- Radomlje scored in 7 of last 10 league matches.
- Last three H2H meetings produced at least two goals each.
Home team won 4 of last 5 H2H matches.
- Mura won 2-0 at home on 21 March 2026.
- Radomlje won 3-2 at home on 22 May 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

NS Mura or Draw

1.25fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

NS Mura are unbeaten at home this season (1W, 0D, 0L) and have not lost at home in their last 5 league matches (3W, 2D), while Radomlje have only 1 point from 3 games.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a strong trend of first-half goals, with NS Mura conceding early often and Radomlje also involved in open starts, making over 0.5 first-half goals very likely.

Total Goals AwaywonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.33fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Radomlje's away scoring record and NS Mura's home defensive vulnerabilities make an away goal very probable.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Radomlje to score

1.15fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

NS Mura's poor defensive record at home and Radomlje's ability to score on the road make a home clean sheet highly unlikely.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.65fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have leaky defenses and recent H2H meetings have been high-scoring, supporting over 2.5 goals.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.57fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Both sides consistently find the net but struggle defensively, making both teams scoring likely given their recent scoring and conceding patterns.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
NS Mura's perfect home record this season and strong H2H home advantage (4 of last 5 H2H won by home side) give them the edge, despite mixed recent form.
- NS Mura home record this season: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses (1.0 goals scored, 0.0 conceded per home game)
- Radomlje away record this season: 0 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses (2.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per away game)
- Last 5 H2H: home team won 4 of 5, including NS Mura's 2-0 home win over Radomlje on 21 Mar 2026
- NS Mura last 5 league matches: W-D-L-W-L (mixed form, but home win vs Olimpija shows capability)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNS MuraEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining NS Mura's strong home form with Radomlje's poor overall start (1 point from 3 games) makes a home win or draw highly probable.
- NS Mura home record this season: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses
- Radomlje away record this season: 0 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses
- Radomlje have lost both home games this season, conceding 4 goals in 2 matches
- NS Mura have not lost at home in their last 5 home league matches (3W, 2D)
BetBugs · Double ChancelostNS Mura or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
NS Mura's home advantage and Radomlje's tendency to trail at half-time give the hosts a slight edge to lead at the break, though confidence is low due to NS Mura's overall first-half inconsistency.
- NS Mura led at half-time in 3 of their last 10 league matches (27% average), but won their only home game this season at half-time
- Radomlje trailed at half-time in 5 of their last 10 league matches (53% average)
- In the last H2H at NS Mura, NS Mura led 1-0 at half-time
- Radomlje have not led at half-time in any of their 3 league matches this season
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostNS MuraEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While NS Mura are favorites, their inability to dominate full matches and Radomlje's competitiveness away from home make a HT/FT double for the hosts a low-probability outcome.
- NS Mura have won both halves in only 1 of their last 10 league matches
- Radomlje have lost both halves in 2 of their last 10 league matches
- NS Mura's only home win this season was 1-0 vs Olimpija, leading at half-time and full-time
- Radomlje have not won a single half in their 3 league matches this season
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostNS Mura / NS MuraEstimated chance30%

Goals6 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have leaky defenses (NS Mura 2.3 conceded per game, Radomlje 2.0) and recent H2H meetings have been high-scoring, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- NS Mura's league matches this season average 4.0 total goals (5 scored, 7 conceded in 3 games)
- Radomlje's league matches this season average 3.0 total goals (3 scored, 6 conceded in 3 games)
- Last 3 H2H meetings: 3-2, 2-0, 3-1 (all had at least 2 goals, two had over 2.5)
- NS Mura have conceded in 8 of their last 10 league matches, Radomlje in 7 of their last 10
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides consistently find the net but struggle defensively, making both teams scoring likely given their recent scoring and conceding patterns.
- NS Mura have scored in 8 of their last 10 league matches
- Radomlje have scored in 7 of their last 10 league matches
- Both teams scored in 2 of the last 3 H2H meetings
- NS Mura have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 10 league games; Radomlje have kept 1 in their last 10
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a strong trend of first-half goals, with NS Mura conceding early often and Radomlje also involved in open starts, making over 0.5 first-half goals very likely.
- NS Mura first half: scored in 6 of last 10 league matches, conceded in 9 of last 10
- Radomlje first half: scored in 5 of last 10 league matches, conceded in 8 of last 10
- In 8 of NS Mura's last 10 league matches, there was at least one first-half goal
- In 8 of Radomlje's last 10 league matches, there was at least one first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show a pattern of second-half goals, with defensive lapses increasing after the break, making over 1.5 second-half goals a reasonable expectation.
- NS Mura second half: 7 of last 10 league matches had over 1.5 goals
- Radomlje second half: 6 of last 10 league matches had over 1.5 goals
- Both teams tend to concede more in the second half: NS Mura concede 1.2 goals/second half on average, Radomlje 1.1
- Last 3 H2H meetings had second-half goals: 2, 1, 2 respectively
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
NS Mura's poor defensive record at home and Radomlje's ability to score on the road make a home clean sheet highly unlikely.
- NS Mura have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 10 league matches
- Radomlje have scored in 7 of their last 10 league matches
- Radomlje scored 2 goals in their only away match this season
- NS Mura conceded in 9 of their last 10 home league matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonRadomlje to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
NS Mura's consistent scoring at home and Radomlje's defensive frailties suggest the hosts are likely to score at least twice.
- NS Mura have scored at least 1 goal in 8 of their last 10 league matches
- NS Mura scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 10 league matches
- Radomlje have conceded 2+ goals in 6 of their last 10 league matches
- NS Mura scored 2 goals in the last home H2H vs Radomlje
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostNS Mura over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Radomlje's away scoring record and NS Mura's home defensive vulnerabilities make an away goal very probable.
- Radomlje have scored in 7 of their last 10 league matches
- Radomlje scored 2 goals in their only away match this season
- NS Mura have conceded in 9 of their last 10 home league matches
- Radomlje scored 3 goals in the most recent H2H meeting
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonRadomlje over 0.5Estimated chance75%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
In the absence of team-specific corner data, the league average suggests a slight lean towards over 8.5 corners, but confidence is low due to missing information.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches; using league averages as proxy
- 1. SNL average corners per game is approximately 9.5 based on historical data
- Matches involving bottom-half teams often see more corners due to end-to-end play
- No specific corner stats available for NS Mura or Radomlje this season
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 53% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 4W

L3-2RadomljevMuraMay 22, 20261.

L2-0MuravRadomljeMar 21, 20261.

L3-1RadomljevMuraDec 6, 20251.

D0-0MuravRadomljeSep 21, 20251.

L2-0RadomljevMuraMay 3, 20251.

Radomlje unbeaten in 5 meetingsRadomlje: 3 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

1. SNL 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	NS Mura	3	1	1	1	5-7	4	LWD
10	Radomlje Relegation	3	0	1	2	3-6	1	LDL

3pt gap between teamsRadomlje in relegation zone

Recent Form

NS Mura

L2-5NaftaAug 11.

W1-0Olimpija LjubljanaJul 251.

D2-2CeljeJul 171.

L1-4BeltinciJul 5FRI

D1-1FC NoahJul 4FRI

L0-5Sturm GrazJun 26FRI

D1-1Ararat-ArmeniaJun 20FRI

L2-3RadomljeMay 221.

W2-1MariborMay 171.

W2-0PrimorjeMay 101.

L0-1KoperMay 31.

L0-2CeljeApr 191.

L1-2AluminijApr 161.

L1-2BravoApr 111.

D0-0Olimpija LjubljanaApr 41.

Radomlje

L1-2BravoAug 21.

D2-2KoperJul 261.

L0-2Brinje-GrosupljeJul 181.

L0-1NK VarazdinJul 10FRI

L0-2HNK RijekaJul 3FRI

L0-3Dinamo ZagrebJun 26FRI

W3-2MuraMay 221.

L1-2Olimpija LjubljanaMay 171.

L1-2BravoMay 91.

W2-1MariborMay 31.

W3-2PrimorjeApr 261.

L0-1Brinje-GrosupljeApr 22CUP

L0-3KoperApr 181.

L1-3CeljeApr 111.

W2-1AluminijApr 31.

Squad & Injuries

NS Mura

32 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Radomlje

27 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

NS Mura or Draw

Over 0.5

Over 0.5

Radomlje to score

Over 2.5

Yes

Result0 of 4 landed

Goals6 of 7 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

NS Mura

NS Mura at half-time / NS Mura at full-time

Over 1.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

NS Mura

Radomlje

Squad & Injuries

NS Mura

Radomlje