ÚrvalsdeildFull time

Predictions graded

KA Akureyri0FH Hafnarfjordur1

HT 0–0Sun 9 Aug 2026, 18:15 Predictions graded

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–60%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Aug 2026, 00:09 · Europe/Bucharest

A relegation clash with a high draw probability (40% H2H) and leaky defenses pointing to goals.

Avoid the juiced over 2.5 and BTTS markets; the best value lies in over 3.5 goals and over 1.5 second-half goals, both at 1.85 with a small edge.

Context

KA have lost 5 of their last 6 Úrvalsdeild matches (W1 D0 L5), including a 3-0 defeat at Keflavik in their most recent game.
- They have conceded 2 or more goals in 5 of those 6 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals against per game in that span.
- Their only win in this period was a 3-2 home victory over IA Akranes, and they have failed to score in two of the last three.
FH's away record this season is 1 win, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with the sole win coming at Keflavik in mid-June.
- In their last 5 away matches, they have drawn 3 and lost 2, failing to score in two of those games.
- They have conceded 2.5 goals per away game on average, including a 5-0 thrashing at Vikingur Reykjavik.
The last 5 H2H matches have seen 18 goals (3.6 per game), with both teams scoring in 4 of those 5.
- Results in those 5 games: 2 home wins, 2 away wins, and 1 draw, showing no consistent home advantage.
- KA won the most recent meeting 2-1 away in May 2026, but FH won 5-0 at home in July 2025.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FH's propensity to draw and the lack of a clear edge in recent form or H2H suggest a stalemate is the most probable single outcome, though confidence is low given the volatility of both teams.
- FH Hafnarfjordur has drawn 7 of 16 league matches (44%), the highest draw rate in the league.
- KA Akureyri has drawn 3 of 17 (18%), but 2 of their last 5 were draws.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, 2 home wins, 1 away win; 40% draw rate historically.
- Both teams are in the relegation zone with similar poor form: KA (LDDWL), FH (DDWDD).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FH's away form is extremely poor, and KA's home advantage plus recent H2H win make a home win or draw the safer bet.
- KA Akureyri is at home, where they have 2 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses (25% win rate, 37.5% draw+win).
- FH Hafnarfjordur away: 1 win, 3 draws, 4 losses (12.5% win rate).
- KA won the most recent H2H meeting 2-1 away at FH in May 2026.
- FH has only 2 wins all season, both at home; they have not won away in their last 5 away matches (0W, 3D, 2L).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostKA Akureyri or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither team shows a strong tendency to lead at half-time, and FH's high draw rate at the break makes a first-half draw the most plausible outcome.
- KA Akureyri's half-time results: 20% leading, 53% trailing, 27% drawing.
- FH Hafnarfjordur's half-time results: 33% leading, 33% trailing, 33% drawing.
- In the last 5 H2H, half-time results: 2 draws, 2 FH leads, 1 KA lead.
- Both teams have a high frequency of first-half draws in recent matches: KA drew 4 of last 15 at HT; FH drew 7 of last 15 at HT.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FH's tendency to draw both halves aligns with a possible stalemate, though the low probability reflects the rarity of this exact outcome.
- FH Hafnarfjordur has drawn at half-time in 7 of 15 recent matches (47%) and full-time in 7 of 16 league matches (44%).
- KA Akureyri drew at half-time in 4 of 15 (27%) and full-time in 3 of 17 (18%).
- In the last 5 H2H, one match was a draw at both half-time and full-time (2024 meeting).
- Both teams are in poor form and may cancel each other out in a low-stakes relegation battle.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have leaky defenses and a history of high-scoring encounters, making over 2.5 goals likely despite their low table positions.
- KA Akureyri's last 15 matches averaged 3.6 total goals (1.5 scored, 2.1 conceded).
- FH Hafnarfjordur's last 15 matches averaged 3.2 total goals (1.1 scored, 2.1 conceded).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals, with an average of 3.6 goals per game.
- Both teams have negative goal differences (-11 each) and concede heavily, especially away: FH concedes 2.5 goals per away game, KA concedes 2.33 per away game but is at home here.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides consistently find the net despite poor overall form, and H2H history strongly supports both teams scoring.
- KA Akureyri scored in 12 of their last 15 matches (80%).
- FH Hafnarfjordur scored in 10 of their last 15 matches (67%).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, both teams scored in 4 of 5 (80%).
- KA's home record: 11 goals in 8 games (1.38 per game); FH's away record: 10 goals in 8 games (1.25 per game).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede early, and combined first-half goal averages exceed 1.5, supported by H2H trends.
- KA Akureyri's first-half goals average: 0.5 scored, 1.2 conceded = 1.7 total first-half goals per game.
- FH Hafnarfjordur's first-half goals average: 0.8 scored, 1.1 conceded = 1.9 total first-half goals per game.
- In the last 5 H2H, 3 of 5 had over 1.5 first-half goals, with an average of 1.8 first-half goals.
- KA trails at half-time in 53% of matches; FH leads at half-time in 33% and trails in 33%, indicating early action.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be higher scoring as both defenses tire, and H2H data strongly supports over 1.5 goals after the break.
- KA Akureyri's full match average is 3.6 goals; subtracting first-half average (1.7) leaves ~1.9 second-half goals.
- FH Hafnarfjordur's full match average is 3.2 goals; subtracting first-half average (1.9) leaves ~1.3 second-half goals.
- In the last 5 H2H, 4 of 5 had over 1.5 second-half goals, with an average of 1.8 second-half goals.
- KA concedes heavily in the second half: 53% trailing at HT suggests they often concede after the break.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
In the absence of specific corner data, the high-scoring nature of this fixture and both teams' defensive vulnerabilities suggest a corner count above the league average, though confidence is low due to missing stats.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in the provided stats, but league averages in Úrvalsdeild typically range 9-11 corners per match.
- Both teams concede many goals, suggesting they face many attacks and thus concede corners.
- KA Akureyri's home matches may see more attacking intent, potentially increasing corner counts.
- FH's away matches average 2.5 goals conceded, indicating sustained pressure and likely corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 76.9% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; odds are too short for a medium-confidence play.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W1-2FH hafnarfjordurvKA AkureyriMay 17, 2026ÚRV

L5-0FH hafnarfjordurvKA AkureyriJul 13, 2025ÚRV

W3-2KA AkureyrivFH hafnarfjordurApr 27, 2025ÚRV

D1-1FH hafnarfjordurvKA AkureyriJul 8, 2024ÚRV

L2-3KA AkureyrivFH hafnarfjordurApr 13, 2024ÚRV

4 goals/game avg

League Table

Úrvalsdeild 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	KA Akureyri	17	4	3	10	24-35	15	LDDWL
12	FH Hafnarfjordur	16	2	7	7	20-31	13	DDWDD

2pt gap between teams

Recent Form

KA Akureyri

L0-3KeflavikAug 5ÚRV

D0-0Thor AkureyriJul 27ÚRV

D2-2IBV VestmannaeyjarJul 19ÚRV

W3-2IA AkranesJul 12ÚRV

L2-3Vikingur ReykjavikJul 2ÚRV

L1-3StjarnanJun 28ÚRV

L1-3BreidablikJun 21ÚRV

L3-4Fram ReykjavikJun 15ÚRV

L3-5KR ReykjavikMay 31ÚRV

L0-1Valur ReykjavikMay 22ÚRV

W2-1FH hafnarfjordurMay 17ÚRV

L1-2ÆgirMay 14CUP

W2-0IBV VestmannaeyjarMay 10ÚRV

W1-0Thor AkureyriMay 2ÚRV

L1-2KeflavikApr 26ÚRV

FH Hafnarfjordur

D0-0Fram ReykjavikJul 26ÚRV

D0-0BreidablikJul 20ÚRV

W2-0Valur ReykjavikJul 12ÚRV

D2-2StjarnanJul 3ÚRV

D1-1IBV VestmannaeyjarJun 28ÚRV

D1-1Thor AkureyriJun 21ÚRV

W2-1KeflavikJun 14ÚRV

L0-1IA AkranesMay 29ÚRV

L0-5Vikingur ReykjavikMay 22ÚRV

L1-2KA AkureyriMay 17ÚRV

L0-5FylkirMay 14CUP

D3-3BreidablikMay 8ÚRV

L3-4Fram ReykjavikMay 3ÚRV

L2-4KR ReykjavikApr 27ÚRV

L0-3Valur ReykjavikApr 23ÚRV

Squad & Injuries

KA Akureyri

31 available

Attackers4

Midfielders15

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

FH Hafnarfjordur

28 available

Attackers10

Midfielders6

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 3.5

Over 1.5

Over 1.5

Over 2.5

Yes

KA Akureyri or Draw

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals0 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 2.5

Yes

KA Akureyri

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

KA Akureyri

FH Hafnarfjordur

Squad & Injuries

KA Akureyri

FH Hafnarfjordur