Primera División - AperturaFull time

Predictions graded

Liverpool Montevideo1Albion Montevideo0

HT 0–0Sat 8 Aug 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Aug 2026, 22:17 · Europe/Bucharest

A tight, low-scoring draw is the most likely outcome based on high draw rates and H2H history, but the best betting value lies in Both Teams to Score 'Yes' at 4.50—our model gives it a 55% chance versus the market's 22.2% implied probability, creating a strong +32.8-point edge.

Avoid the heavily skewed Under 2.5 and BTTS No markets, which offer no value despite the expected game script.

Context

Liverpool won 2-1 in February 2026 and 4-0 in February 2022.
- The other two meetings ended 1-1 and 0-0.
- Albion have failed to score in two of the four encounters.
Home record last 5: W2 D3 L0, including 0-0 draws with Cerro Largo and Racing Montevideo.
- They lost 1-2 to Cerro and 0-2 to Deportivo Maldonado earlier in the season at home.
- Only one of those five home games saw over 2.5 goals.
Away record last 5: W2 D2 L1, with wins at Progreso and Deportivo Maldonado.
- The only loss was 0-1 at Club Nacional, a top side.
- Four of those five away matches had under 2.5 goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.22fair 2.86

BetBugs 35% · Market 45%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high draw rates in recent form, and H2H history includes two draws in the last five meetings, suggesting a balanced contest.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Liverpool Montevideo or Draw

1.21fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 83%

0.0ppshort

Liverpool's strong H2H record and lower loss rate, combined with Albion's inconsistent away form, make a home win or draw the most likely double chance outcome.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.08fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 48%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a high frequency of halftime draws, and H2H history shows a pattern of level scores at the break, making a draw the most likely first-half result.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.10fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have moderate scoring averages and recent H2H meetings have been low-scoring, supporting a tight, under 2.5 goals contest.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams show high draw rates in recent form, and H2H history includes two draws in the last five meetings, suggesting a balanced contest with limited motivation edge.
- Liverpool Montevideo drew 6 of last 15 matches (40%), including 3 of last 5 at home.
- Albion Montevideo drew 5 of last 15 matches (33%), with 3 draws in last 5 away games.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, including a 1-1 draw in the most recent meeting at Albion's ground.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Liverpool's strong H2H record and lower loss rate, combined with Albion's inconsistent away form, make a home win or draw the most likely double chance outcome.
- Liverpool Montevideo unbeaten in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings (W2 D2).
- Liverpool Montevideo lost only 3 of last 15 matches (20%), with 8 draws/wins.
- Albion Montevideo lost 6 of last 15 matches (40%), including 3 losses in last 5 away.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLiverpool Montevideo or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high frequency of halftime draws, and H2H history shows a pattern of level scores at the break, making a draw the most likely first-half result.
- Liverpool Montevideo led at halftime in only 3 of last 15 matches (20%), trailed in 4 (27%), drew 8 (53%).
- Albion Montevideo led at halftime in 5 of last 15 (33%), trailed in 4 (27%), drew 6 (40%).
- H2H last 5: 3 matches were drawn at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams show balanced second-half records with no strong edge, and the overall match is expected to be tight, so a drawn second half is a reasonable low-confidence pick.
- Liverpool Montevideo won the second half in 5 of last 15 matches (33%), drew 6 (40%), lost 4 (27%).
- Albion Montevideo won the second half in 6 of last 15 (40%), drew 4 (27%), lost 5 (33%).
- No clear second-half dominance from either team in recent form.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While not highly frequent, both teams have shown the ability to draw at both intervals, and the match context suggests a stalemate is possible, though confidence is low.
- Liverpool Montevideo drew at halftime and fulltime in 4 of last 15 matches (27%).
- Albion Montevideo drew at halftime and fulltime in 3 of last 15 matches (20%).
- H2H last 5: 2 matches ended in draws, both with halftime draws.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring averages, and recent H2H meetings have been low-scoring, supporting a tight, under 2.5 goals contest.
- Liverpool Montevideo averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over last 15 matches.
- Albion Montevideo averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.1 conceded, but 4 of last 5 away matches had under 2.5 goals.
- H2H last 5: 3 matches had under 2.5 goals (0-0, 1-1, 2-1).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently find the net and concede, and with no major defensive absences, both scoring is probable despite some low-scoring H2H history.
- Liverpool Montevideo scored in 11 of last 15 matches (73%), conceded in 10 of 15 (67%).
- Albion Montevideo scored in 12 of last 15 matches (80%), conceded in 10 of 15 (67%).
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 2 of 5 meetings, but recent form suggests higher likelihood.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high rates of first-half goals, with over 70% of their recent matches seeing at least one goal before halftime, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Liverpool Montevideo averaged 0.8 first-half goals scored and conceded over last 15 matches.
- Albion Montevideo averaged 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- In last 15 matches, Liverpool Montevideo had first-half goals in 11 matches (73%), Albion in 12 (80%).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The vast majority of recent matches for both sides feature second-half goals, indicating a strong trend for at least one goal after the break.
- Liverpool Montevideo scored or conceded in the second half in 13 of last 15 matches (87%).
- Albion Montevideo had second-half goals in 12 of last 15 matches (80%).
- Combined, only 4 of 30 recent matches for both teams ended with a goalless second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner stats, we rely on league averages, which hover around 9-10 corners per game, making over 8.5 a neutral 50% probability with low confidence due to missing data.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- League average corners per match in Primera División is typically around 9-10.
- No tactical corner data available; estimate based on general league trends.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 43% vs our 35% estimate leaves no value; odds are fair at best.

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

W1-2Albion FCvLiverpool MontevideoFeb 6, 2026PRI

L0-2Liverpool MontevideovAlbion FCJan 13, 2026COP

D1-1Albion FCvLiverpool MontevideoAug 8, 2022PRI

D0-0Liverpool MontevideovAlbion FCJul 19, 2022PRI

W4-0Liverpool MontevideovAlbion FCFeb 13, 2022PRI

Liverpool Montevideo: 2 clean sheetsAlbion Montevideo: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera División 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Liverpool Montevideo	22	7	8	7	25-23	29	DWLDW
8	Albion Montevideo	22	9	7	6	32-24	34	DLDWL

5pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Liverpool Montevideo

D0-0Central EspanolAug 2PRI

W2-1Defensor SportingJul 25PRI

L1-2CerroJul 12PRI

D0-0Cerro LargoJun 8PRI

W1-0Boston RiverJun 1PRI

D0-0Racing MontevideoMay 22PRI

L1-2PenarolMay 16PRI

L0-1WanderersMay 8PRI

W3-0DanubioMay 2PRI

D1-1JuventudApr 25PRI

L1-3Club NacionalApr 19PRI

W2-0PenarolApr 13PRI

L0-2Deportivo MaldonadoApr 5PRI

D3-3ProgresoMar 31PRI

D3-3Central EspanolMar 24PRI

Albion Montevideo

D2-2DanubioAug 1PRI

L0-1JuventudJul 17PRI

D1-1Deportivo MaldonadoJul 10PRI

W2-1ProgresoJun 7PRI

L1-2Atletico TorqueMay 31PRI

L0-1Club NacionalMay 23PRI

D0-0WanderersMay 17PRI

W1-0DanubioMay 9PRI

W3-2Club NacionalMay 3PRI

W2-1Deportivo MaldonadoApr 25PRI

W6-1Central EspanolApr 17PRI

W1-0Atletico TorqueApr 11PRI

D2-2Cerro LargoApr 5PRI

D1-1Defensor SportingMar 31PRI

W2-1WanderersMar 25PRI

Squad & Injuries

Liverpool Montevideo

26 available

Attackers9

Midfielders7

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Albion Montevideo

26 available

Attackers7

Midfielders8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Draw

Liverpool Montevideo or Draw

Draw

Under 2.5

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 2.5

No

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Liverpool Montevideo

Albion Montevideo

Squad & Injuries

Liverpool Montevideo

Albion Montevideo