Primera División - AperturaFull time

Predictions graded

Liverpool Montevideo1CA Cerro Montevideo2

HT 1–1Sun 12 Jul 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–529%

Edges0–30%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Jul 2026, 23:31 · Europe/Bucharest

A low-scoring, cagey affair is expected between Liverpool Montevideo and a Cerro side with the worst away record in the league and a new coach.

The best value lies in backing under 0.5 first-half goals (+15-point edge), while Liverpool's outright win is overpriced given our 45% estimate versus the 62.5% implied by the market.

Context

Cerro confirmed Cappuccio on 13 May, their third coach this season after Nelson Abeijon and Alejandro Apud.
- The team finished the Apertura with the worst away record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses, and a -21 goal difference.
- New coaches often provide an initial lift, but Cerro's away form has been consistently poor across multiple managers.
Cerro's last 15 away matches: W1 D2 L12, with the only win coming against a lower-division side.
- They scored only 10 goals in 19 Apertura matches, averaging 0.53 per game.
- In away matches, they conceded 18 goals in 7 Apertura games, an average of 2.57 per game.
Estadio Belvedere has been closed for reconstruction since the 2025 season.
- Liverpool's home record at the temporary venue is W3 D1 L1 in their last five, with only 1.1 goals scored per game.
- The unfamiliar setting could contribute to the low-scoring patterns seen in recent home matches.
Last three results: 1-1, Cerro 2-1, Liverpool 2-1.
- Both teams scored in all three matches, despite Cerro's current scoring woes.
- The tight scorelines indicate that even when Cerro struggle, they can keep matches competitive against Liverpool.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Liverpool Montevideo or Draw

1.14fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 88%

0.0ppshort

Cerro's abysmal away record (W1-D2-L12 in last 15 away) and Liverpool's solid home form make a home win or draw highly probable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Liverpool Montevideo's stronger overall form and CA Cerro Montevideo's poor away record, combined with the home advantage (even at a temporary venue), give Liverpool Montevideo the edge.
- Liverpool Montevideo have won 3 of their last 5 home matches in all competitions (W3 D1 L1).
- CA Cerro Montevideo have lost 6 of their last 7 away matches in the Apertura, conceding 18 goals in those 7 games.
- In the Intermedio, Liverpool Montevideo have 5 points from 4 games (W1 D2 L1), while CA Cerro Montevideo have 3 points from 4 games (W1 D0 L3).
- Liverpool Montevideo have a +2 goal difference in the Apertura overall, while CA Cerro Montevideo have a -21 goal difference.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLiverpool MontevideoEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CA Cerro Montevideo's extremely poor away form makes a Liverpool Montevideo win or draw highly likely, supported by Liverpool Montevideo's solid home record and historical H2H edge.
- CA Cerro Montevideo have won only 1 of their last 15 away matches across all competitions (W1 D2 L12).
- Liverpool Montevideo have lost only 2 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions (W4 D4 L2).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Liverpool Montevideo have won 2, drawn 2, and lost 1.
- CA Cerro Montevideo have the worst away record in the Apertura, with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 6 losses.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostLiverpool Montevideo or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The pattern of tight first halves for both teams, especially in recent matches, suggests a stalemate at the break is the most likely outcome.
- Liverpool Montevideo have drawn at half-time in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- CA Cerro Montevideo have drawn at half-time in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- In the Intermedio, Liverpool Montevideo have been level at half-time in 3 of 4 matches.
- The last H2H meeting was 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While not a strong trend, Liverpool Montevideo's superior fitness and CA Cerro Montevideo's tendency to fade in the second half give the home side a slight edge to win the second period.
- Liverpool Montevideo have won the second half in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- CA Cerro Montevideo have lost the second half in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- In the Intermedio, Liverpool Montevideo have won the second half in 1 of 4 matches, with 2 draws.
- CA Cerro Montevideo have a -21 goal difference, with many goals conceded late.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableLiverpool MontevideoEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Liverpool Montevideo win is a plausible scenario given CA Cerro Montevideo's second-half collapses, though the specific combination is not highly frequent.
- Liverpool Montevideo have been drawing at half-time and winning at full-time in 1 of their last 5 home matches.
- CA Cerro Montevideo have been drawing at half-time and losing at full-time in 2 of their last 5 away matches.
- In the Intermedio, Liverpool Montevideo have had this HT/FT combination once in 4 matches.
- CA Cerro Montevideo's poor second-half record supports a potential turnaround.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Liverpool MontevideoEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low-scoring trends, especially CA Cerro Montevideo's offensive struggles, making a low-scoring match likely.
- Liverpool Montevideo's last 5 home matches have averaged 1.6 total goals (8 goals in 5 games).
- CA Cerro Montevideo's last 5 away matches have averaged 2.0 total goals, but they have failed to score in 3 of those 5.
- In the Intermedio, Liverpool Montevideo have seen under 2.5 goals in 3 of their 4 matches.
- CA Cerro Montevideo have scored only 10 goals in 19 Apertura matches, averaging 0.53 goals per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
CA Cerro Montevideo's severe scoring drought and Liverpool Montevideo's recent defensive solidity at home point to at least one team failing to score.
- CA Cerro Montevideo have failed to score in 11 of their 19 Apertura matches.
- Liverpool Montevideo have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- In the Intermedio, CA Cerro Montevideo have scored only 2 goals in 4 matches.
- The last H2H meeting ended 1-1, but CA Cerro Montevideo's current form suggests scoring will be difficult.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently produce low-scoring first halves, with Liverpool Montevideo's cautious approach and CA Cerro Montevideo's offensive ineptitude making a quiet opening 45 minutes very probable.
- Liverpool Montevideo's last 5 home matches have seen only 2 first-half goals total (0.4 per game).
- CA Cerro Montevideo's last 5 away matches have seen only 3 first-half goals total (0.6 per game).
- In the Intermedio, Liverpool Montevideo have seen under 1.5 first-half goals in all 4 matches.
- CA Cerro Montevideo have trailed at half-time in 40% of their matches this season, but rarely in high-scoring halves.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to see more action after the break, with CA Cerro Montevideo's defense often wilting late, making a second-half goal highly likely.
- Liverpool Montevideo's last 5 home matches have seen at least one second-half goal in 4 of 5 (80%).
- CA Cerro Montevideo's last 5 away matches have seen at least one second-half goal in 4 of 5 (80%).
- In the Intermedio, Liverpool Montevideo have seen second-half goals in 3 of 4 matches.
- CA Cerro Montevideo have conceded 70% of their goals in the second half this season.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance80%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
In the absence of specific corner data, the expected low-event nature of the match and league averages suggest a slight lean towards under 9.5 corners.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in the provided match logs.
- Uruguayan Primera División matches average around 9.5 corners per game.
- Low-scoring, cautious matches tend to produce fewer corners.
- Both teams lack dominant possession stats, suggesting fewer attacking set-pieces.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

D1-1CerrovLiverpool MontevideoFeb 20, 2026PRI

L2-1CerrovLiverpool MontevideoAug 24, 2025PRI

D0-0Liverpool MontevideovCerroMay 25, 2025PRI

W2-1Liverpool MontevideovCerroFeb 22, 2025PRI

W1-3CerrovLiverpool MontevideoNov 30, 2024PRI

2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera División - Apertura 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Liverpool Montevideo	19	6	7	6	22-20	25	DWDLL
16	CA Cerro Montevideo	19	3	4	12	10-31	13	LLWLL

12pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Liverpool Montevideo

D0-0Cerro LargoJun 8PRI

W1-0Boston RiverJun 1PRI

D0-0Racing MontevideoMay 22PRI

L1-2PenarolMay 16PRI

L0-1WanderersMay 8PRI

W3-0DanubioMay 2PRI

D1-1JuventudApr 25PRI

L1-3Club NacionalApr 19PRI

W2-0PenarolApr 13PRI

L0-2Deportivo MaldonadoApr 5PRI

D3-3ProgresoMar 31PRI

D3-3Central EspanolMar 24PRI

L0-1Racing MontevideoMar 21PRI

D0-0Atletico TorqueMar 16PRI

W1-0Boston RiverMar 10PRI

CA Cerro Montevideo

L0-1PenarolJun 7PRI

L0-2Cerro LargoMay 29PRI

W1-0Central EspanolMay 24PRI

L1-4Boston RiverMay 16PRI

L0-4Club NacionalMay 10PRI

L0-1Deportivo MaldonadoMay 2PRI

L1-3Central EspanolApr 26PRI

D1-1Atletico TorqueApr 19PRI

D1-1Cerro LargoApr 10PRI

W1-0Defensor SportingApr 5PRI

L0-3WanderersMar 28PRI

W1-0JuventudMar 25PRI

L1-3PenarolMar 21PRI

L0-1ProgresoMar 14PRI

L0-1Racing MontevideoMar 8PRI

Squad & Injuries

Liverpool Montevideo

37 available

Attackers12

Midfielders12

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

CA Cerro Montevideo

36 available

Attackers7

Midfielders13

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4

Liverpool Montevideo1CA Cerro Montevideo2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw at half-time / Liverpool Montevideo at full-time

Under 0.5

Liverpool Montevideo or Draw

Under 1.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Liverpool Montevideo

No

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Liverpool Montevideo

CA Cerro Montevideo

Squad & Injuries

Liverpool Montevideo

CA Cerro Montevideo