Liga ProFull time

Predictions graded

Macara2Guayaquil City1

HT 1–1Sun 2 Aug 2026, 20:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 21–8On targetOn target 8–2CornersCorners 7–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Jul 2026, 07:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Macará's strong home form and Guayaquil City's road struggles point to a low-scoring match, but the market has already priced in a home win and under 2.5 goals, leaving little value.

The best betting edge is on under 0.5 first-half goals at 2.63, with a 17-point edge over the implied probability, while under 9.5 corners at 1.85 also offers a small positive edge. Avoid the heavily juiced under 3.5 goals and over 0.5 first-half goals markets.

Context

Macará home record: 6W-2D-3L, 15 goals scored, 9 conceded.
- Macará last 5 form: WWLWW, including 3 clean sheets.
- Guayaquil City away record: 3W-3D-5L, 10 goals scored, 14 conceded.
- Guayaquil City failed to score in 5 of 11 away matches.
Liga Pro's 30-match initial phase separates clubs into three post-season groups.
- Macará and Guayaquil City are both in the mix for a top-six title hexagonal spot.
- A loss could push either side closer to the relegation hexagonal cut line.
Last three H2H: 2-1, 0-0, 2-0 – all under 2.5 goals.
- Only 7 of 21 all-time H2H matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Macará won the last meeting at this venue 2-0 in 2022.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Macara's strong home form and recent momentum, combined with Guayaquil City's poor away defensive record, give the hosts a clear edge, supported by motivation to secure a playoff spot.
- Macara home record: 6W-2D-3L, 15 goals scored, 9 conceded in 11 matches
- Macara last 5 form: WWLWW, including 3 clean sheets
- Guayaquil City away record: 3W-3D-5L, 10 goals scored, 14 conceded in 11 matches
- H2H last 5: Macara 2 wins, Guayaquil City 2 wins, 1 draw; Macara won last home meeting 2-0 in 2022
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMacaraEstimated chance48%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Macara's strong home resilience and Guayaquil City's struggles on the road make a home win or draw highly likely, reinforced by the visitors' low away win rate.
- Macara home losses only 3 in 11, with 8 unbeaten matches
- Guayaquil City away wins only 3 in 11, with 8 matches without a win
- H2H last 5: only 1 away win for Guayaquil City (2021)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMacara or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high draw rates at half time, and Macara's tendency to start cautiously at home aligns with a likely level score at the break.
- Macara first half record: led at half time in 27% of matches, trailed in 20%, drawn in 53%
- Guayaquil City first half record: led in 13%, trailed in 47%, drawn in 40%
- H2H last 5: 3 draws at half time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Macara's superior second-half performance at home, where they have a positive goal difference, gives them a slight edge to win the second period.
- Macara second half record: won 5, drawn 6, lost 4 in last 15 matches
- Guayaquil City second half record: won 3, drawn 5, lost 7 in last 15 matches
- Macara home second half: outscored opponents 9-4 in 11 matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonMacaraEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A pattern of Macara breaking deadlocks in the second half at home, combined with Guayaquil City's tendency to fade, supports a draw/Macara double, though it remains a specific outcome.
- Macara home matches: 4 of 11 were draw at half time and Macara win at full time
- Guayaquil City away matches: 2 of 11 were draw at half time and away loss at full time
- Macara overall: 5 of last 15 matches were draw at half time and Macara win at full time
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/MacaraEstimated chance30%

Goals0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H trends and both teams' moderate scoring rates, especially Macara's solid home defense, point to a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 goals a strong probability.
- H2H last 3 meetings all under 2.5 goals; 14 of last 21 H2H under 2.5
- Macara home goals per game: 1.36, conceded 0.82; 7 of 11 home matches under 2.5
- Guayaquil City away goals per game: 0.91, conceded 1.27; 7 of 11 away matches under 2.5
- Both teams average under 1.5 goals scored per game overall
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Macara's defensive solidity at home and Guayaquil City's inconsistent away scoring, combined with H2H patterns, suggest at least one team will fail to score.
- Macara home clean sheets in 5 of 11 matches; conceded in 6
- Guayaquil City away failed to score in 5 of 11 matches
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in only 2 of 5 meetings
- Macara last 5 matches: 3 clean sheets
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Macara's recent defensive form is strong, Guayaquil City's ability to score in half their away games makes a home clean sheet a plausible but not high-confidence outcome.
- Macara home clean sheets in 5 of 11 matches (45%)
- Guayaquil City away failed to score in 5 of 11 matches (45%)
- Macara last 5 matches: 3 clean sheets overall
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostGuayaquil City not to scoreEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages and a pattern of goalless first halves in recent matches and H2H, making under 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Macara first half goals per game: 0.5, conceded 0.5; 7 of 15 recent matches 0-0 at half time
- Guayaquil City first half goals per game: 0.3, conceded 0.7; 8 of 15 recent matches 0-0 at half time
- H2H last 5: 3 matches 0-0 at half time
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams score the majority of their goals after the break, and H2H history shows second-half activity, but the overall low-scoring trend tempers confidence.
- Macara second half goals per game: 0.8, conceded 0.4; 60% of their goals come after half time
- Guayaquil City second half goals per game: 0.7, conceded 0.4; 70% of their goals come after half time
- H2H last 5: 4 matches had second-half goals, with 3 having over 1.5
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance48%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner statistics point to a low total, with Macara's matches averaging 9.5 and Guayaquil City's even lower at 8.0, making under 9.5 corners probable.
- Macara average corners per game: 5.4, opponent corners: 4.1; total average 9.5
- Guayaquil City average corners per game: 2.9, opponent corners: 5.1; total average 8.0
- H2H last 5: corner data unavailable, but both teams' recent matches average under 10 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined card averages hover around the 4.5 line, with Macara's recent matches showing a slight tendency for higher totals, but the evidence is not strong enough for high confidence.
- Macara average yellow cards per game: 2.4, opponent: 2.3; total average 4.7
- Guayaquil City average yellow cards per game: 1.8, opponent: 2.5; total average 4.3
- Macara last 5 matches: total cards 4, 6, 6, 5, 3 (average 4.8)
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 67% leaves no cushion vs our 48% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L2-1Guayaquil City FCvMacaraApr 12, 2026LIG

D0-0Guayaquil City FCvMacaraAug 6, 2022LIG

W2-0MacaravGuayaquil City FCMar 20, 2022LIG

L0-2MacaravGuayaquil City FCJul 24, 2021LIG

L3-1Guayaquil City FCvMacaraFeb 20, 2021LIG

Macara: 2 clean sheetsGuayaquil City: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Liga Pro 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Macara Play-offs	22	10	5	7	28-22	35	WWLWW
9	Guayaquil City	22	7	7	8	19-23	28	DDWDW

7pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Macara

W4-1AucasJul 26LIG

W3-0Deportivo CuencaJul 22LIG

L1-2Delfin SCJul 18LIG

W2-1Mushuc Runa SCJul 14LIG

W2-0Tecnico UniversitarioJul 11LIG

W1-0LDU de QuitoJul 5LIG

W1-0Deportivo Cuenca JuniorsJun 4COP

D1-1Leones del NorteJun 1LIG

D0-0America de CaliMay 29CON

L0-2EmelecMay 24LIG

D0-0Alianza AtleticoMay 22CON

L0-3Independiente del ValleMay 16LIG

W1-0Manta FCMay 10LIG

D2-2TigreMay 7CON

L1-2Orense SCMay 3LIG

Guayaquil City

D0-0Universidad CatolicaJul 27LIG

D1-1Leones del NorteJul 23LIG

W1-0Manta FCJul 19LIG

D1-1Barcelona SCJul 16LIG

W2-1Delfin SCJul 11LIG

L0-1AucasJul 8LIG

L2-4Independiente del ValleMay 31LIG

D2-2Mushuc Runa SCMay 23LIG

L0-1Orense SCMay 19LIG

L1-2Astillero FC (Ecu)May 14COP

L0-1Deportivo CuencaMay 9LIG

L0-1LDU de QuitoMay 2LIG

W1-0Tecnico UniversitarioApr 26LIG

W1-0LibertadApr 21LIG

W3-1EmelecApr 18LIG

Squad & Injuries

Macara

30 available

Attackers6

Midfielders12

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Guayaquil City

25 available

Attackers5

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 0.5

Under 9.5

Macara

Macara or Draw

No

Result5 of 5 landed

Goals0 of 5 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Macara

Macara or Draw

Under 3.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Macara

Guayaquil City

Squad & Injuries

Macara

Guayaquil City