USL League OneFull time

Predictions graded

Richmond Kickers3AV Alta FC2

HT 1–0Sat 1 Aug 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–450%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Aug 2026, 07:16 · Europe/Bucharest

AV Alta FC are clear favorites to avoid defeat against a Richmond Kickers side mired in a five-match losing streak and defensive disarray.

The double chance (Draw or AV Alta) at 1.38 offers a slim but solid edge, backed by AV Alta's consistency (only four losses in 19) and Richmond's weak home form (two wins in seven), though travel fatigue and Richmond's new signings add risk. Avoid backing Richmond outright or AV Alta to cover a -1 handicap, as the odds overestimate both outcomes.

Context

Brian Ownby has been interim head coach since June 15, with Evan Munn promoted the same day and Mac Phillips added on July 8.
- Richmond signed attacker Zahir Vazquez on July 17 and defender Harold Hanson on July 21; Vazquez's approval was still pending league and federation clearance.
- Richmond have lost their last five league matches, conceding 12 goals and scoring only 2.
AV Alta play at Richmond on August 1, at FC Naples on August 5, and at home on August 8.
- The team is based in California, making the trip to Virginia a cross-country journey.
- Three matches in eight days is a congested schedule that often forces managers to rotate players.
Richmond's home record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in 7 league games.
- At home, they have conceded 2 or more goals in 4 of those 7 matches.
- Their only home wins came against Westchester SC (13th) and in a cup match.
AV Alta's overall goals conceded average is 0.9 per game; away from home they have conceded 11 in 8 matches (1.4 per game).
- In their last five away matches, AV Alta kept clean sheets against Corpus Christi and Fort Wayne.
- Richmond average only 0.7 goals scored per game this season.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

AV Alta FC

2.00fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 50%

0.0ppshort

Richmond's poor form (5 straight league losses) and defensive fragility (2.2 goals conceded per game) contrast with AV Alta's solid playoff-position campaign, giving the visitors a clear edge despite travel fatigue.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.65fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Richmond's leaky defense (2.2 goals conceded per game) combined with AV Alta's consistent scoring (1.4 goals per game) suggests a high-scoring affair, especially given Richmond's recent trend of high-scoring losses.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.57fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Richmond tend to score at home (4 of last 5 home games with a goal), while AV Alta's attack is consistent (scored in 12 of last 15), making both teams scoring likely despite AV Alta's occasional clean sheets.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a high frequency of first-half goals (73% and 67% respectively), and Richmond's tendency to concede early (67%) makes over 0.5 first-half goals a strong probability.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Richmond's poor form (5 straight league losses) and defensive fragility (2.2 goals conceded per game) contrast with AV Alta's solid playoff-position campaign, giving the visitors a clear edge despite travel fatigue.
- Richmond Kickers have lost 11 of 17 league matches, conceding 33 goals (2.2 per game average in last 15).
- AV Alta FC sit 7th with 29 points from 19 games, losing only 4 times all season.
- Richmond's last 5 league matches: L-L-L-D-L, scoring 2 and conceding 12.
- AV Alta's away record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in 8 games, with 9 goals scored and 11 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAV Alta FCEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Richmond's home form is weak (2 wins in 7), and AV Alta's overall consistency (only 4 losses in 19) makes a home win unlikely; the visitors should at least avoid defeat.
- Richmond have won only 2 of 7 home games this season, drawing 2 and losing 3.
- AV Alta have lost only 4 of 19 matches overall, with 8 draws.
- H2H: Richmond won the only home meeting 3-1 in 2025, but AV Alta are much stronger this season.
- Richmond's last 5 home league games: L-L-D-L-W (the win was against Westchester SC, 13th).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or AV Alta FCEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Richmond's poor first-half record (trailing 47% of the time) and AV Alta's solid first-half defense (0.3 conceded) give the visitors a slight edge to lead at the break, though confidence is low due to AV Alta's inconsistent away first halves.
- Richmond trail at halftime in 47% of their last 15 matches, leading in only 20%.
- AV Alta lead at halftime in 33% of their last 15 matches, trailing in only 20%.
- Richmond's first-half goal difference in last 15: 0.3 scored vs 1.0 conceded.
- AV Alta's first-half goal difference in last 15: 0.7 scored vs 0.3 conceded.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostAV Alta FCEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime is common for both teams (33% and 40%), and AV Alta's superior second-half performance could turn a level game into a win, though the exact sequence is speculative.
- Richmond have drawn at halftime in 33% of their last 15 matches (5 of 15).
- AV Alta have drawn at halftime in 40% of their last 15 matches (6 of 15).
- AV Alta have won 7 of 19 matches this season, often coming from behind or drawing at half.
- Richmond have lost 11 of 17 matches, with 5 of those losses after being level at halftime.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / AV Alta FCEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Richmond's leaky defense (2.2 goals conceded per game) combined with AV Alta's decent scoring rate (1.4 goals per game) suggests a high-scoring affair, especially given Richmond's recent trend of high-scoring losses.
- Richmond concede 2.2 goals per game on average in their last 15 matches.
- AV Alta score 1.4 goals per game on average in their last 15 matches.
- Richmond's last 5 league matches have seen 3+ goals in 4 of them.
- AV Alta's last 5 away matches have seen 3+ goals in 3 of them.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Richmond tend to score at home (4 of last 5 home games with a goal), while AV Alta's attack is consistent (scored in 12 of last 15), making both teams scoring likely despite AV Alta's occasional clean sheets.
- Richmond have scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches across all competitions.
- AV Alta have scored in 12 of their last 15 matches.
- Richmond have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 15 matches.
- AV Alta have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 15 matches, but 3 of those were at home.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high frequency of first-half goals (73% and 67% respectively), and Richmond's tendency to concede early (67%) makes over 0.5 first-half goals a strong probability.
- Richmond's last 15 matches: first-half goals in 73% of games (11 of 15).
- AV Alta's last 15 matches: first-half goals in 67% of games (10 of 15).
- Richmond concede a first-half goal in 67% of their last 15 matches.
- AV Alta score a first-half goal in 60% of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Richmond's defense often collapses after halftime (1.2 second-half goals conceded), and AV Alta's attack can capitalize, leading to a high chance of multiple second-half goals.
- Richmond concede 1.2 second-half goals per game on average in their last 15 (2.2 total - 1.0 first half).
- AV Alta score 0.7 second-half goals per game on average in their last 15 (1.4 total - 0.7 first half).
- Richmond's last 5 matches have seen 2+ second-half goals in 4 of them.
- AV Alta's last 5 away matches have seen 2+ second-half goals in 3 of them.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner stats, we rely on league averages (~9.2 corners per game) and the match context of an open game, but confidence is low due to missing data.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in the provided match logs.
- USL League One average corners per game is approximately 9.2 based on league-wide trends.
- Richmond's home matches may see more attacking intent, potentially increasing corner counts.
- AV Alta's away matches could produce corners if they press high, but no concrete data supports this.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 33% leaves no cushion vs our 25% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

AV Alta FC has been moderately reliable when projected to win

AV Alta FC has fulfilled 3 of 5 win predictions. The two misses were draws, with no losses. The current probability of 45% sits at the bottom of the historical range (45–60%), matching the lowest previous projection that was successful.

Recent evidence for AV Alta FC5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·USL League One