FranceBrest - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Moise Kouame #194France2Francesco Maestrelli #174Italy0

Sets 6-3 · 6-4Fri 30 Oct 2026, 17:30 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalI.hard

Predictions7–188%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFrancesco Maestrelli · 20 places

Moise Kouame

France

French right-hander born in March 2009. The ITF lists a 25-13 professional record in 2026, with his stronger recorded win rate on hard courts than clay.

Current ranking: #194
Peak ranking: #211 · 2026
Current age: 17
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Francesco Maestrelli

Italy

Italian right-hander whose ATP bio lists hard courts as his favourite surface. He reached his career-high ranking of No. 108 in February 2026.

Current ranking: #174
Peak ranking: #108 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Oct 2026, 06:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Two players who reached the Brest quarterfinal on retirements open Friday's schedule, with No.

194 Kouame and No. 174 Maestrelli separated by very little. Kouame's first-set numbers are the better; Maestrelli's second sets and longer matches pull the other way, and the narrow match lean to Kouame comes with low confidence. No selection arrived with a reviewed price, so there is nothing here to take.

Context

Maestrelli's route to the quarterfinal ended during the second set rather than after a full match. That creates a specific workload contrast to a completed second-round contest immediately before this fixture. The injury was Diallo's left-leg issue, not an availability concern for Maestrelli.
- Maestrelli had won the first set and was level early in the second when Diallo retired.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Oct 2026, 06:02 · Europe/BucharestSki Nordiquewww.ski-nordique.net · 29 Oct 2026
Maestrelli's sets tend to stay close: his second sets average 5.21 games won against 4.71 games lost, and four of the 14 matches included a second-set tiebreak.
Maestrelli's recent hard-court matches have run long and tight, with 8 of 14 containing a tiebreak and 7 going to a deciding set; his average of 24.21 total games per match is above Kouame's 22.31 games. A quick, clean afternoon for Kouame is not the shape this sample points to. The window covers 14 completed matches over roughly ten weeks.
- 14 completed hard-court matches tracked from 18 August to 27 October 2026, with one retirement excluded.
- 8 of the 14 included a tiebreak; 7 went to a deciding set.
- Average 24.21 total games per match, with second sets averaging 5.21 games won against 4.71 games lost.
The result placed Kouame in the Brest quarterfinals after he had taken the opening set and moved ahead early in the second against the top seed. It gives his run a notable opponent and match-state context ahead of this fixture. Gaston's retirement meant the match did not reach a completed second set.
- Kouame held a set-and-break lead over top seed Gaston before the retirement.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Oct 2026, 06:02 · Europe/BucharestTennis Actuwww.tennisactu.net · 29 Oct 2026
The match is the opening fixture on Friday's Brest schedule, placing it before the other three quarterfinals. That establishes the immediate tournament order and the timing of the players' next appearance. No court-specific pace, ball, or weather condition was supplied for this slot.
- Their quarterfinal heads the Friday schedule.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Oct 2026, 06:02 · Europe/BucharestSki Nordiquewww.ski-nordique.net · 29 Oct 2026

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Kouame has marginally better quality wins and a stronger first-set record, so the match is close but he can edge it.
- ATP No. 194 vs No. 174; ranking gap is 20 places.
- Current hard record: Kouame 5-8, Maestrelli 6-8.
- Kouame set1 record 7-6 with 5.08 games won and 4.54 lost per set.
- Kouame led top seed Hugo Gaston 7-5, 2-1 before Gaston retired in Brest.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMoise KouameEstimated chance51%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined recent average is just below 23.5, so a shorter match is slightly more likely.
- Kouame's hard-court matches average 22.31 total games.
- Maestrelli's hard-court matches average 24.21 total games.
- Both players' set1 averages sit near 9.6 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Maestrelli's second sets tend to run long, which makes more than 9.5 games slightly more likely.
- Kouame's second sets average 9.31 total games.
- Maestrelli's second sets average 9.93 total games.
- Maestrelli has four second-set tiebreaks in 14.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kouame has won all five tracked hard-court wins in straight sets, which points to a two-set match being more likely.
- Kouame's hard-court matches average 2.31 sets.
- Maestrelli's hard-court matches average 2.50 sets.
- Kouame has won all five tracked hard-court wins in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Maestrelli's second-set numbers are the stronger side of his set record, giving him a slight edge.
- Maestrelli has won 8 of 14 second sets on hard courts.
- Kouame has won 7 of 13 second sets.
- Maestrelli's set2 games average is 5.21 won and 4.71 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostFrancesco MaestrelliEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kouame's first-set record is slightly stronger and he led against Gaston in Brest.
- Kouame has won the first set in 7 of 13 hard-court matches.
- Maestrelli has won the first set in 7 of 14.
- Kouame's set1 games average is 5.08 won and 4.54 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMoise KouameEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kouame's lower tiebreak rate pulls the chance of no tiebreak slightly above even.
- Kouame has four tiebreak matches in 13.
- Maestrelli has eight tiebreak matches in 14.
- Across their two samples, 12 of 27 matches had a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Moise Kouame

7W 8L

7-5 2-1 ret.#110Hugo Gaston 6-4 7-6(1)#403Hugo Grenier

6-4 6-4#26Lorenzo Musetti

7-6(2) 6-4#91Lorenzo Sonego

6-4 6-2#180Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

6-1 6-4#190Diego Dedura

6-1 6-4#98Adam Walton

6-4 6-0#130Alexandre Muller

2-6 6-3 6-4#263Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

6-4 6-2#290Florent Bax

6-1 4-2 ret.#643Filip Peliwo

6-1 6-3#659Ryuki Matsuda

4-6 6-4 7-5#422Kenta Miyoshi

7-6(3) 4-6 6-3#131Nishesh Basavareddy

6-4 2-6 7-6(5)#350Moez Echargui

Francesco Maestrelli

7W 8L

6-4 2-2 ret.#149Gabriel Diallo 7-6(3) 6-3#350Moez Echargui

4-6 6-3 7-6(6)#135Borna Gojo

6-3 6-4#228Maxim Mrva

6-2 6-3#274Mili Poljicak

4-6 6-3 6-4#289Oliver Tarvet

6-3 6-7(4) 6-3#165Andrea Guerrieri

6-0 6-3#181Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

4-6 7-6(3) 6-3#529Yanis Ghazouani Durand

6-4 7-6(3)#357Arthur Nagel

6-0 2-6 6-1#213Maks Kasnikowski

6-7(2) 6-1 6-4#437Alafia Ayeni

6-2 6-2#369Juan Pablo Ficovich

6-7(2) 6-3 6-1#97Toby Samuel

6-4 7-6(4)#127Alexei Popyrin

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MKMoise KouameKouame

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Francesco MaestrelliMaestrelliFM

Francesco Maestrelli carries the stronger recent form — Moise Kouame's route runs through return.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1558.9%+11.1pp70.0%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1569.7%+1.1pp68.6%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1545.7%+0.8pp46.5%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/154.9+2.17.0

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/155.23.0 fewer2.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1539.2%+3.3pp35.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1544.4%+4.2pp48.6%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1560.2%+6.8pp67.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1549.9%—49.2%

Serve · 1–4

58.9%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+11.1pp70.0%

69.7%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+1.1pp68.6%

45.7%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+0.8pp46.5%

4.9Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+2.17.0

5.2Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.0 fewer2.2

Return · 1–0

39.2%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.3pp35.9%

Pressure · 0–2

44.4%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+4.2pp48.6%

60.2%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+6.8pp67.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.9%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15—49.2%