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Predictions graded

Moez Echargui #348Tunisia0Francesco Maestrelli #171Italy2

Sets 6-7 · 3-6Tue 27 Oct 2026, 10:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions2–529%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFrancesco Maestrelli · 177 places

Moez Echargui

Tunisia

Age 33 with a career-high ranking of No. 134 on 29 December 2025. ITF lists sand/clay as his preferred surface, while ATP describes him as a counterpuncher.

Current ranking: #348
Peak ranking: #134 · 2025
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Francesco Maestrelli

Italy

Italian right-hander whose ATP bio lists hard courts as his favourite surface. He reached his career-high ranking of No. 108 in February 2026.

Current ranking: #171
Peak ranking: #108 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 03:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Echargui, ranked 348, has won twice in straight sets in Brest, while Maestrelli, ranked 171, has lost five of his last six and is 5-9 on hard courts.

Echargui is the likelier winner. At 2.3 for the match and 2.2 for either set there is something to take; Maestrelli's 1.55 and 1.6 prices ask more than his record supports.

Context

Echargui has settled quickly in Brest, dropping eight games across the two matches.
The opponents were ranked 497 and unranked, so these are modest scalps rather than proof of level. They do show he is at home in the conditions and has needed only four sets of work. Maestrelli has not played since an 18 October three-set loss to Borna Gojo, so the sharper recent match rhythm belongs to Echargui.
- 26 October 2026: beat Benjamin Hassan (ranked 497) 6-2 6-4 in Brest.
- 25 October 2026: beat Mickael Kaouk 6-3 6-2 in Brest.
Maestrelli's serve keeps him in sets even when his return game is under pressure.
Nearly seven in ten first deliveries land and roughly seven in ten of those points are won, which is the base of his 5-10 record in the sample. Behind the second serve the picture changes sharply, with 44.1% of second-serve points won. Echargui's 39.8% return-point share over his last 15 hard-court matches suggests he can extend rallies when he gets the ball back.
- Last 15 matches tracked: 68.5% first serves in (831/1214) and 69.2% first-serve points won (575/831).
- 7.4 aces per match (111/15) with 2.6 double faults per match (39/15) across the same 15 matches.
Maestrelli's sets are close enough to reach tiebreaks but have often slipped away late.
The 14-match sample runs from 11 August to 18 October 2026 and averages 2.5 sets and 24.3 total games, with only three straight-set wins inside it. Those are the numbers of a player who stays in matches without closing them. Facing an opponent who has been finishing in straight sets is the less comfortable shape for him.
- 14 hard-court matches, 11 August to 18 October 2026: scorelines of 1-2 in five, 0-2 in four, 2-0 in three, 2-1 in two.
- Total games average 24.3 and sets average 2.5 across the sample, with eight matches containing a tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Echargui's stronger recent hard-court results and better game and point shares make him the more likely winner.
- Echargui is 8-7 on hard in his last 15; Maestrelli is 5-9 on the surface.
- Echargui has won 50.0% of games and 49.9% of points in that sample; Maestrelli 47.4% and 48.7%.
- Echargui has taken the first set 9 times in 15 hard-court matches; Maestrelli 6 times in 14.
- Echargui's latest two matches are straight-set wins in Brest; Maestrelli has lost five of his last six.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMoez EcharguiEstimated chance57%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Echargui's shorter matches and Maestrelli's four straight-set losses make a total under the line slightly more likely.
- Echargui's hard-court matches average 22.7 total games, below the line.
- Six of Echargui's 15 hard-court matches were 2-0 wins, and four were 0-2 losses.
- Maestrelli has been beaten in straight sets four times in 14 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are the more common outcome for both players, especially when Echargui wins.
- Echargui has finished 10 of 15 hard-court matches in straight sets.
- Maestrelli has finished 7 of 14 hard-court matches in straight sets.
- Echargui's last two Brest wins were 2-0.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Echargui's stronger first-set record and recent straight-set starts make him the likelier early leader.
- Echargui has won the first set in 9 of 15 hard-court matches; Maestrelli in 6 of 14.
- Echargui averages 5.0 first-set games won and 4.9 lost; Maestrelli 4.5 won and 5.1 lost.
- Echargui's latest two Brest wins came in straight sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMoez EcharguiEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Echargui's second-set record is slightly better, and his return game gives him an edge in longer exchanges.
- Echargui has won 8 of 15 second sets on hard courts; Maestrelli 7 of 14.
- Echargui averages 4.9 second-set games won and 4.7 lost.
- Maestrelli has played four second-set tiebreaks in 14 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMoez EcharguiEstimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' double-fault rates are modest, making the under the stronger side.
- Echargui has 38 double faults in 15 hard-court matches; Maestrelli 31 in 14.
- The combined average is 4.7 per match.
- Maestrelli's first-serve in is 69.1%, limiting second serves.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Echargui's straight-set wins and lower ace rate make a tiebreak-free match more likely.
- Echargui has avoided a tiebreak in 11 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Maestrelli has avoided a tiebreak in 6 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Echargui's last two Brest wins were completed without a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rate sits under the line and Echargui's shorter matches reduce the expected total.
- The two players combine for 11.9 aces per match on hard courts.
- Echargui has 75 aces in 15 matches; Maestrelli has 96 in 14.
- Echargui's last two Brest wins lasted two sets.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 12.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Moez Echargui

8W 7L

6-2 6-4#497Benjamin Hassan 6-3 6-2—Mickael Kaouk

6-2 6-1#156Daniil Glinka

7-5 6-4#230Raul Brancaccio

6-1 7-5#209Edas Butvilas

7-5 6-0#83Damir Dzumhur

6-1 4-6 6-4#367Daniel Masur

6-4 7-6(8)#452Karl Poling

6-7(3) 6-4 6-3#559Luca Potenza

6-7(2) 7-5 6-1#187Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

7-5 1-6 7-6(2)#249Billy Harris

6-4 6-2#318Lucas Poullain

2-6 6-4 6-4#191Jack Pinnington Jones

6-4 6-4#118Hugo Dellien

6-3 6-4#30Hubert Hurkacz

Francesco Maestrelli

5W 10L

4-6 6-3 7-6(6)#148Borna Gojo

6-3 6-4#234Maxim Mrva

6-2 6-3#270Mili Poljicak

4-6 6-3 6-4#289Oliver Tarvet

6-3 6-7(4) 6-3#166Andrea Guerrieri

6-0 6-3#181Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

4-6 7-6(3) 6-3#529Yanis Ghazouani Durand

6-4 7-6(3)#357Arthur Nagel

6-0 2-6 6-1#214Maks Kasnikowski

6-7(2) 6-1 6-4#434Alafia Ayeni

6-2 6-2#369Juan Pablo Ficovich

6-7(2) 6-3 6-1#96Toby Samuel

6-4 7-6(4)#126Alexei Popyrin

7-6(6) 6-4#91Bu Yunchaokete

7-6(5) 4-6 6-3#204Juan Pablo Varillas

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MEMoez EcharguiEchargui

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Francesco MaestrelliMaestrelliFM

Francesco Maestrelli carries the stronger recent form — Moez Echargui's route runs through return.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In57.6%+10.9pp68.5%

1st Serve Won69.1%—69.2%

2nd Serve Won47.5%+3.4pp44.1%

Aces / Match5.0+2.47.4

Double Faults / Match2.5—2.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won39.8%+3.8pp36.0%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted38.5%+7.0pp45.5%

Break Pts Saved57.7%+7.6pp65.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won49.9%+1.1pp48.8%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

57.6%1st Serve In+10.9pp68.5%

69.1%1st Serve Won—69.2%

47.5%2nd Serve Won+3.4pp44.1%

5.0Aces / Match+2.47.4

2.5Double Faults / Match—2.6

Return · 1–0

39.8%Return Pts Won+3.8pp36.0%

Pressure · 0–2

38.5%Break Pts Converted+7.0pp45.5%

57.7%Break Pts Saved+7.6pp65.3%

Points · 1–0

49.9%Total Pts Won+1.1pp48.8%