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Nikoloz Basilashvili #128Georgia0Carlos Alcaraz #3Spain2

Sets 1-6 · 6-7Thu 29 Oct 2026, 15:35 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions6–275%

Edges0–50%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCarlos Alcaraz · 125 places

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Georgia

Basilashvili reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 16 in May 2019. The supplied current ranking is No. 132; no reliable current source established a specific fitness-related reason for that gap.

Current ranking: #128
Peak ranking: #16 · 2019
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Carlos Alcaraz

Spain

Career-high No. 1 in 2022 and has named clay as his favourite surface. He entered this event after a four-month absence caused by a right-wrist injury.

Current ranking: #3
Peak ranking: #1 · 2022
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Oct 2026, 22:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Basilashvili arrives 12-2 on hard courts in this sample and 13-1 in first sets, yet Alcaraz has won both previous meetings without dropping a set.

Alcaraz should come through, though 1.12 gives little back for that. Five quotes carry potential value: over 22.5 games at 2.4, Basilashvili with a 2.5-game start at 3.8, Basilashvili for the first set at 4.25, over 2.5 sets at 3.0 and Basilashvili at 6.0.

Context

Alcaraz took the opening set in both of those meetings, which is the relevant precedent given Basilashvili's current first-set record.
The head-to-head is short but clean: two meetings, two Alcaraz wins, no sets dropped, and the first set secured on each occasion. That is the clearest counter to Basilashvili's 13-1 opening-set run in this sample, though both matches are more than four years old and say nothing about current form.
- 2022-05-03: Alcaraz beat Basilashvili 6-3 7-5.
- 2021-06-03: Alcaraz beat Basilashvili 6-4 6-2 6-4.
- Alcaraz won the first set in both meetings.
The opening set has been Basilashvili's strongest phase of the match throughout this stretch, not a one-off.
Starting well has been the pattern of Basilashvili's run, with only one opening set lost in 14 hard-court matches. The obvious risk is that the one opponent of Alcaraz's level he met in this window, Medvedev, turned the match around after losing the opener.
- 14 completed hard-court best-of-three matches tracked, 24 September to 28 October 2026, one retirement excluded.
- First sets: 13 won, 1 lost; 6.1 games won against 4.1 games lost per set.
- Three of the 14 first sets reached a tiebreak.
Alcaraz's recent hard-court matches have usually been settled in two sets, but rarely without a close set along the way.
The straight-set rate points to a short match, while the tiebreak count and the 23.9 games average pull the other way and make a quick, low-game finish less certain. The sample is seven matches, so it is a guide rather than a settled pattern.
- 7 hard-court best-of-three matches tracked, 1 October to 27 October 2026, one retirement excluded.
- Scorelines: four 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins, one 0-2 loss.
- Total games average 23.9 games; five of the seven matches included a tiebreak.
It shows both the strength of Basilashvili's starts and how quickly a top-five opponent can reverse a match once the opener is gone.
Alcaraz is the same calibre of opponent as Medvedev, so this is a template for how the match could go: Basilashvili competitive early, then the higher-ranked player taking control. It is also a warning that a first-set lead does not carry into the rest of the match.
- 2026-10-25: lost to Daniil Medvedev (ranked 5) 7-6, 1-6, 3-6 on indoor hard.
- The defeat came in three sets after Basilashvili won the opener.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Alcaraz is ranked far higher, leads the head-to-head and has been winning regularly on hard courts.
- Ranked 3; 11-2 on hard in current sample; 2-0 in head-to-head; beat Khachanov in straight sets in latest match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCarlos AlcarazEstimated chance80%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets have regularly reached at least ten games in the hard-court sample.
- Basilashvili first-set total games average 10.2; Alcaraz first-set average 11.7; both have three first-set tiebreaks in the sample.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Alcaraz has won most recent hard-court matches by at least three games, which clears this line.
- Alcaraz recent hard-court game margins: +3, -3, +6, +3, +6, +6; five of six exceed +2.5.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonCarlos Alcaraz -2.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Both players have recent match averages above this line, and Alcaraz has played several longer matches on hard courts.
- Basilashvili hard-court average 24.5 total games; Alcaraz hard best-of-3 average 23.9; combined recent matches 6 of 12 over 22.5.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance55%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Alcaraz has the higher ranking and started strongly in both previous meetings.
- Alcaraz 5-2 in first sets on hard in best-of-3; Basilashvili 13-1 in first sets on hard in best-of-3; Alcaraz won first sets in both H2H matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonCarlos AlcarazEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Alcaraz has won four of seven hard best-of-3 matches in straight sets and is favored to finish in two.
- Basilashvili 5 of 14 hard matches went three sets; Alcaraz 2 of 7 hard best-of-3 matches went three sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Alcaraz has won most of his hard-court matches in straight sets and has beaten Basilashvili without dropping a set.
- Alcaraz 4 of 7 hard best-of-3 matches finished 2-0; he won both H2H matches without dropping a set; Basilashvili has no 0-2 losses in the hard-court sample.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonCarlos Alcaraz 2-0Estimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have had tiebreaks in a large share of their recent hard-court matches.
- Basilashvili 7 of 14 hard best-of-3 matches had a tiebreak; Alcaraz 5 of 7 hard best-of-3 matches had a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%

Prediction history

Carlos Alcaraz: 4/4 recent winner projections matched

4 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Carlos Alcaraz matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Carlos Alcaraz4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

14 Apr·Barcelona

#2Carlos Alcaraz2-0#130Otto Virtanen

BetBugsCarlos Alcaraz to win·93%

Matched

14 Apr 2026

Barcelona

#2Carlos Alcaraz2-0#130Otto Virtanen

Carlos Alcaraz to win

93%probability

Carlos Alcaraz won

Matched

10 Apr·Monte Carlo

#1Carlos Alcaraz2-0#11Alexander Bublik

BetBugsCarlos Alcaraz to win·89%

Matched

10 Apr 2026

Monte Carlo

#1Carlos Alcaraz2-0#11Alexander Bublik

Carlos Alcaraz to win

89%probability

Carlos Alcaraz won

Matched

9 Apr·Monte Carlo

#1Carlos Alcaraz2-1#30Tomas Martin Etcheverry

BetBugsCarlos Alcaraz to win·90%

Matched

9 Apr 2026

Monte Carlo

#1Carlos Alcaraz2-1#30Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Carlos Alcaraz to win

90%probability

Carlos Alcaraz won

Matched

7 Apr·ATP

#1Carlos Alcaraz2-0#65Sebastian Baez

BetBugsCarlos Alcaraz to win·88%

Matched

7 Apr 2026

ATP

#1Carlos Alcaraz2-0#65Sebastian Baez

Carlos Alcaraz to win

88%probability

Carlos Alcaraz won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-2 (2 meetings)

L6-3 7-5Nikoloz Basilashvili#128vCarlos Alcaraz#3May 3, 2022

L6-4 6-2 6-4Nikoloz Basilashvili#128vCarlos Alcaraz#3Jun 3, 2021

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Nikoloz Basilashvili

12W 3L

7-6(3) 6-1#137Jurij Rodionov

6-7(6) 6-1 6-3#5Daniil Medvedev 6-4 6-7(5) 6-3#39Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-3 6-1#79Adrian Mannarino

6-2 6-4#71Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-2 7-5#84Marin Cilic

6-4 7-6(4)#97Adam Walton

6-2 7-5#179Taro Daniel

6-3 2-2 ret.#79Adrian Mannarino

5-7 7-5 6-4#197Liam Draxl

6-3 6-7(1) 7-5#203Andre Ilagan

4-6 6-4 6-3#13Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-4 7-6(4)#99Jenson Brooksby

6-4 7-5#38Botic Van De Zandschulp

7-6(3) 6-4#57Miomir Kecmanovic

Carlos Alcaraz

13W 2L

6-4 7-6(5)#25Karen Khachanov

7-5 7-6(4)#41Zizou Bergs

6-3 6-3#53Juan Manuel Cerundolo

7-6(4) 6-4#20Jiri Lehecka

5-7 6-3 6-1#51Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

7-6(3) 2-1 ret.#47Denis Shapovalov

7-6(6) 6-1#36Matteo Arnaldi

7-6(1) 4-6 6-1#37Alex Michelsen

6-3 4-6 13-11#14Taylor Fritz

6-7(5) 6-1 6-3 1-6 7-6(7)#4Ben Shelton

6-4 6-3 6-4#15Tommy Paul

6-3 6-4 6-1#106Yibing Wu

4-6 6-0 6-3 6-2#56Jaime Faria

6-4 6-4 6-4#70Roman Safiullin

6-4 6-2#121Otto Virtanen

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NBNikoloz BasilashviliBasilashvili

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Carlos AlcarazAlcarazCA

Carlos Alcaraz carries the stronger recent form — Nikoloz Basilashvili's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1558.4%+7.9pp66.3%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1580.3%+9.0pp71.3%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1555.7%+2.8pp52.9%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/159.9+6.63.3

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.60.5 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1537.1%+5.5pp42.6%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1534.3%+10.8pp45.1%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1560.0%+1.9pp61.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1552.6%+1.1pp53.7%

Serve · 4–1

58.4%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+7.9pp66.3%

80.3%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+9.0pp71.3%

55.7%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.8pp52.9%

9.9Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+6.63.3

2.6Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.5 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

37.1%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+5.5pp42.6%

Pressure · 0–2

34.3%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+10.8pp45.1%

60.0%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+1.9pp61.9%

Points · 0–1

52.6%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.1pp53.7%

Nikoloz Basilashvili #128Georgia0Carlos Alcaraz #3Spain2

Player Profiles

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Carlos Alcaraz

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 22.5

Nikoloz Basilashvili +2.5

Over 2.5

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Carlos Alcaraz: 4/4 recent winner projections matched

Head-to-Head

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Carlos Alcaraz

Stat Battle