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Predictions graded

Naoya Honda #597Japan1Liam Broady #233United Kingdom2

Sets 1-6 · 7-6 · 4-6Thu 29 Oct 2026, 07:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions3–633%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLiam Broady · 364 places

Naoya Honda

Japan

Honda, 20, is a right-hander whose listed preferred surface is hard. He reached a career-best No. 642 in August 2026.

Current ranking: #597
Peak ranking: #642 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Liam Broady

United Kingdom

Broady is the left-hander in this matchup and is listed with hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #233
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Oct 2026, 22:08 · Europe/Bucharest

A qualifier in form meets the fifth seed: Naoya Honda has won three straight Ningbo matches, while Liam Broady has taken just one of his last 12 first sets on hard.

Honda is the pick to win, and his 4.25 to take the match and 3.25 to take the first set are the two reviewed prices that offer something; Broady at 1.18 does not.

Context

At Ningbo, Honda has completed three matches before this fixture and two went to deciding sets. The Peliwo match ended in a third-set tiebreak on 27 October, following another three-set qualifying final . That volume gives his tournament entry a different recovery profile from a direct main-draw start. Exact match durations are not available, so the scores alone do not quantify the physical load.
- Honda won three Ningbo matches before this fixture, with deciding sets against Sultanov and Peliwo.
- His first-round win over Peliwo finished in a third-set tiebreak.
ReportedSources checked 28 Oct 2026, 22:05 · Europe/BucharestNaoya Honda vs Liam Broady match pagewww.tennisowl.io · 26 Oct 20262026 Ningbo Challenger drawen.wikipedia.org · 26 Oct 2026
Broady has started slowly across this hard-court sample, losing 11 of 12 opening sets while averaging 4.4 games won against 6.0 lost. Honda's first sets sit at 7-7 over 14 hard matches, so the opening set is where these two diverge most clearly. Losing it has not been fatal for Broady, though: two of his wins in this sample came after dropping the first set.
- Broady's hard-court sample covers 12 completed matches from 1 July to 27 October 2026, with a 1-11 record in first sets.
- In those first sets he averaged 4.4 games won against 6.0 games lost.
- The 12 matches produced five tiebreaks, two of them in first sets.
As the fifth seed, Broady entered the event directly in contrast to Honda's qualifying route. The 19 October ranking gives context for the seeding and this main-draw matchup. It predates the match week, so it is an entry-status fact rather than evidence of a current performance change.
- Broady held the fifth seed in the Ningbo singles main draw.
- The draw listed him at No. 233 on 19 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Oct 2026, 22:05 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Ningbo Challenger drawen.wikipedia.org · 26 Oct 2026
The 2019-to-2026 gap makes this a revived event rather than a recent annual edition. That context matters to tournament history and title-defence narratives around the draw. The supplied event information gives no court-speed or ball detail, so it does not establish a specific conditions-based matchup effect.
- The event runs from to 1 November at Yinzhou Tennis Center.
- It is the first Ningbo Challenger edition since 2019 and is played on hard courts.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Oct 2026, 22:05 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Ningbo Challenger event pageen.wikipedia.org · 26 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 4.25
The read
Honda's recent wins and much stronger first-set record make him a modest favourite, though Broady's ranking keeps the match open.
- Honda has won his last three completed hard matches, including two in three sets.
- Broady is 2-10 on hard in this sample and has lost 11 of 12 first sets.
- Honda's hard first-set record is 7-7, while Broady's is 1-11.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNaoya HondaEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Broady's matches tend to run long and Honda has just played two three-set matches, so over 24.5 games is slightly favoured.
- Broady's hard matches average 26.4 total games over 12.
- Honda's last three Ningbo matches totalled 34, 31 and 18 games.
- Broady's second sets average 11.1 games.
- Honda's hard matches average 22.3 total games over 14.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 24.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Broady's second sets regularly run past ten games, so over 9.5 is favoured.
- Broady's second sets average 11.1 total games over 12.
- Honda's second sets average 9.1 total games over 14.
- Broady's second-set games won average is 5.3.
- Broady's second-set games lost average is 5.8.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets sit near or above ten games on average, making over 9.5 slightly likely.
- Broady's first sets average 10.4 total games over 12.
- Honda's first sets average 9.6 total games over 14.
- Broady's first-set games lost average is 6.0.
- Honda's first-set games won average is 4.9.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance54%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 3.25
The read
Broady's poor first-set record gives Honda a clear early advantage.
- Broady has lost 11 of 12 first sets on hard.
- Honda's hard first-set record is 7-7 over 14.
- Broady's first-set games won average is 4.4 against 6.0 lost.
- Honda's first-set games average is 4.9 won and 4.7 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostNaoya HondaEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Broady's wins have needed a deciding set and Honda has just played two long matches, so over 2.5 sets is favoured.
- Broady's two hard-court wins in this sample were both three-setters.
- Broady's hard matches average 2.50 sets over 12.
- Honda's last two completed matches were three-setters.
- Honda's hard matches average 2.36 sets over 14.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Broady's second sets last longer and he has won from a set down, so he is slightly favoured to take the second set.
- Broady's second sets average 11.1 total games, compared with Honda's 9.1.
- Broady's hard second-set record is 5-7.
- Honda's hard second-set record is 6-8.
- Broady's two hard-court wins both included a second-set win after losing the first.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostLiam BroadyEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been the minority outcome across both players' hard-court samples.
- Nine of the 26 combined hard matches in this sample contained a tiebreak.
- Honda has played four tiebreak matches in 14.
- Broady has played five tiebreak matches in 12.
- Honda's first sets average 9.6 games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance58%

Previous match context available

Naoya Honda

7W 8L

5-7 6-3 7-6(3)#641Filip Peliwo

3-6 7-5 6-4#431Khumoun Sultanov

6-3 6-3#659Ryuki Matsuda

4-6 6-3 7-5#382Kasidit Samrej

7-6(3) 6-4#880Kristjan Tamm

7-6(11) 6-2#225Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-3 6-4#327Petr Bar Biryukov

2-6 7-6(6) ret.#128Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-4 6-4#810Jesse Flores

6-2 6-3—Hao Duan

4-6 7-6(8) 6-2#888Ryota Tanuma

6-1 6-1#664Naoki Nakagawa

6-0 6-0—Seiya Nakanishi

4-6 6-1 6-1—Nikita Filin

6-3 6-2#573Kaylan Bigun

Liam Broady

4W 11L

5-7 7-6(4) 6-2#294Sergey Fomin

6-4 6-4#309Akira Santillan

6-7(5) 6-4 6-2#620Dominik Palan

6-4 6-4#181Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-4 3-6 6-1#251Dominic Stricker

7-6(4) 6-3#164Marco Cecchinato

6-3 7-5#421Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-4 7-5#402Ozan Baris

7-5 5-7 6-4#272Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-2 7-5#376Yuta Shimizu

6-4 5-7 7-6(4)#116Aleksandar Vukic

6-3 7-6(6)#37Alex Michelsen

6-3 7-6(2)#203Andre Ilagan

7-6(4) 6-3#116Aleksandar Vukic

2-6 7-5 7-6(5)#398Jack Kennedy

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NHNaoya HondaHonda

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Liam BroadyBroadyLB

Naoya Honda carries the stronger recent form — Liam Broady's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In56.3%+2.9pp59.2%

1st Serve Won73.1%+1.8pp71.3%

2nd Serve Won50.1%+2.4pp47.7%

Aces / Match4.3+0.43.9

Double Faults / Match3.50.6 fewer4.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won35.4%—35.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted47.9%+15.5pp32.4%

Break Pts Saved58.9%+4.1pp63.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.3%—48.7%

Serve · 4–1

56.3%1st Serve In+2.9pp59.2%

73.1%1st Serve Won+1.8pp71.3%

50.1%2nd Serve Won+2.4pp47.7%

4.3Aces / Match+0.43.9

3.5Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer4.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

35.4%Return Pts Won—35.6%

Pressure · 1–1

47.9%Break Pts Converted+15.5pp32.4%

58.9%Break Pts Saved+4.1pp63.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.3%Total Pts Won—48.7%