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Predictions graded

Naoya Honda #597Japan2Filip Peliwo #641Canada1

Sets 5-7 · 6-3 · 7-6Tue 27 Oct 2026, 07:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions2–722%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNaoya Honda · 44 places

Naoya Honda

Japan

Honda, 20, is a right-hander whose listed preferred surface is hard. He reached a career-best No. 642 in August 2026.

Current ranking: #597
Peak ranking: #642 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Filip Peliwo

Canada

Peliwo reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 161 in May 2018. The ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #641
Peak ranking: #161 · 2018
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Oct 2026, 15:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Two closely ranked hard-courters meet in the Ningbo first round, with Filip Peliwo's 9-5 recent hard-court record and straight-set habit against Naoya Honda's late wins.

Peliwo is the likely winner, and Peliwo at 2.4 to win the match, at 4.25 to win 2-0 and at 2.3 to win the second set all offer something. Honda at 1.5 to win and at 1.55 to take the second set do not.

Context

That is a short-match profile: only one of Peliwo's 14 completed hard-court matches went the distance. If he controls the first round, the scoreline is likely to stay compact, but the five 0-2 defeats show the same pattern can run against him. Honda's 21.29-game average over his own 14 matches is the counterweight.
- Peliwo's 14 hard-court matches from 15 Sep to 26 Oct produced eight 2-0 wins, five 0-2 defeats and one 2-1 win.
- His average match total was 2.07 sets and 19.21 games.
Honda averages 5.07 games won in first sets and 4.29 in second sets, while his games-lost average rises from 4.57 to 4.71. That split gives Peliwo a target if the match reaches a second set, though the 14-match sample is small and Honda's first-set record shows he can start well.
- Honda's set1 record is 8-6 with 5.07 games won and 4.57 games lost per set over 14 hard-court matches.
- His set2 record is 6-8 with 4.29 games won and 4.71 games lost per set.
The scoreline is a sharp caution inside Peliwo's recent form because Haliak is ranked well below both players in this first-round match. Peliwo can be beaten comfortably when his level dips, which is the main risk to the short straight-set wins elsewhere in his record. The result is one match, not proof of a lasting slump.
- On 24 Oct 2026, Peliwo lost 3-6, 3-6 to Mikalai Haliak, ranked 898, on hard court.
- The match was completed in two sets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Peliwo has the better recent hard-court record and has been winning sets more comfortably, while Honda has needed tight margins even in victories.
- Peliwo 9-5 on hard over last 15; Honda 6-8
- Peliwo set2 record 9-5 with 5.5 games won per set
- Honda lost four straight before two narrow wins
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFilip PeliwoEstimated chance57%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Peliwo's matches have generally finished quickly, and a straight-set result keeps the game count under this line.
- Peliwo average match total 19.21 games
- Honda average match total 21.29 games
- Peliwo has played 13 of 14 matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 20.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Averaged across both men the opening set sits just below this line, helped by Peliwo's quick starts.
- Peliwo first-set average total 8.79 games
- Honda first-set average total 9.64 games
- Only two first-set tiebreaks each in 14 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Honda's second sets have often been short, and combined with Peliwo's straight-set wins the middle set can close early.
- Honda second-set average total 9.0 games
- Peliwo second-set average total 9.71 games
- Honda has lost eight second sets, many by wide margins
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both men usually finish in two sets, and Peliwo in particular has rarely been taken to a decider.
- Peliwo: 13 of 14 matches decided in straight sets
- Honda: 10 of 14 matches decided in straight sets
- Peliwo total sets average 2.07
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Peliwo's second-set record is clearly the better of the two, and his recent wins have been decided well before a third set.
- Peliwo set2: 9 wins, 5 losses, 5.5 games won average
- Honda set2: 6 wins, 8 losses, 4.29 games won average
- Peliwo has won six straight completed matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostFilip PeliwoEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both men are level on first-set records, but Peliwo's recent opening sets have been more comfortable.
- Peliwo set1: 8 wins, 6 losses, 4.57 games won average
- Honda set1: 8 wins, 6 losses, 5.07 games won average
- Peliwo won his last two opening sets 7-6 and 6-2
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFilip PeliwoEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both men's recent hard-court matches finished without a tiebreak.
- Honda had a tiebreak in 3 of 14 matches
- Peliwo had a tiebreak in 4 of 14 matches
- Combined tiebreak rate around one match in four
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance72%

Previous match context available

Naoya Honda

7W 8L

3-6 7-5 6-4#431Khumoun Sultanov

6-3 6-3#655Ryuki Matsuda

4-6 6-3 7-5#382Kasidit Samrej

7-6(3) 6-4#880Kristjan Tamm

7-6(11) 6-2#225Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-3 6-4#327Petr Bar Biryukov

2-6 7-6(6) ret.#128Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-4 6-4#813Jesse Flores

6-2 6-3—Hao Duan

4-6 7-6(8) 6-2#888Ryota Tanuma

6-1 6-1#664Naoki Nakagawa

6-0 6-0—Seiya Nakanishi

4-6 6-1 6-1—Nikita Filin

6-3 6-2#573Kaylan Bigun

7-5 6-2#697Ryan Dickerson

Filip Peliwo

9W 6L

7-6(5) 6-1#449Luca Castelnuovo 6-2 6-3#575Saba Purtseladze

6-3 6-3#898Mikalai Haliak

6-1 6-3—Lin Hao-Yu

6-1 7-6(4)—Xirui Han

6-2 6-3—Jordan Chiu

6-2 7-5#614Yaroslav Demin

6-3 7-6(10)#609Timofei Derepasko

7-6(5) 6-1#636Max Purcell

6-2 6-4#68Mattia Bellucci

6-3 6-3#752Kuan-Shou Chen

6-4 6-2#435Enzo Aguiard

6-1 7-5—Xing Dao Chen

6-1 4-2 ret.#194Moise Kouame

1-6 6-3 6-4#510Tai Sach

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NHNaoya HondaHonda

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Filip PeliwoPeliwoFP

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1555.8%+4.5pp60.3%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1573.1%+2.0pp71.1%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1550.5%+4.1pp46.4%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.5+2.42.1

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.51.6 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1535.9%+5.3pp41.2%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1545.8%+3.1pp42.7%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1560.9%—61.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1549.6%+1.7pp51.3%

Serve · 3–2

55.8%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+4.5pp60.3%

73.1%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+2.0pp71.1%

50.5%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+4.1pp46.4%

4.5Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+2.42.1

3.5Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.6 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

35.9%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+5.3pp41.2%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

45.8%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+3.1pp42.7%

60.9%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15—61.0%

Points · 0–1

49.6%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.7pp51.3%