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Predictions graded

Martin Damm #107United States2Ugo Blanchet #344France0

Sets 6-4 · 7-6Thu 29 Oct 2026, 13:15 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions7–278%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMartin Damm · 237 places

Martin Damm

United States

Damm was born on 30 September 2003 and is a 203 cm left-hander. Structured data supplied for this match lists him at No. 94.

Current ranking: #107
Peak ranking: #94
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 203 cm

Ugo Blanchet

France

Reached a career-high No. 139 on 30 September 2024. ATP lists hard as his favourite surface; the supplied structured profile ranks him No. 190.

Current ranking: #344
Peak ranking: #139 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Oct 2026, 03:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Damm, the fifth seed and world No. 107, owns the serve and ranking edge over qualifier Blanchet, which makes him the likelier winner — but the 1.29 quoted on him asks more than the evidence supports.

Two prices do offer something: Blanchet at 2.9 for the opening set and 3.3 for the match.

Context

Damm is a left-handed two-hander whose first serve does most of his scoring.
Damm's serve is the biggest single weapon here: 12.9 aces per match and 76.2% of first-serve points won over a 15-match sample puts the pressure on Blanchet's return games. When first serves land, the qualifier will struggle to find openings. When they do not, Damm's 51.3% of second-serve points won leaves the door ajar.
- Over 15 tracked hard-court matches, Damm averaged 12.9 aces per match (193 in total).
- He won 76.2% of first-serve points (553 of 726) with 62.5% of first serves landing in.
Damm's straight-set split shapes how his matches have tended to finish.
Damm's wins tend to arrive cleanly and his long matches have gone the other way: all five three-set matches in this sample were defeats. A two-set win is his clearest route, which makes a dragged-out contest a risk rather than something he thrives in. That pattern rests on 14 matches, so it is a lean rather than a rule.
- In 14 hard-court best-of-three matches from 4 August to 27 October 2026, Damm's scorelines were six 2-0 wins, three 0-2 losses and five 1-2 losses.
- He won 9 of 14 first sets and averaged 23.7 total games per match in that sample.
The Brest singles draw placed Damm as the fifth seed and listed Blanchet as a qualifier. That establishes their different routes into this matchup and frames the draw context. The entry labels do not disclose their opponents, match lengths or recovery time.
- The Brest singles draw lists Damm as the fifth seed and Blanchet as a qualifier.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Oct 2026, 03:35 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Brest Challengeren.wikipedia.org · 27 Oct 2026
The 2026 edition runs from 26 October to 1 November on indoor hard courts. That defines the setting for this fixture, and both supplied player profiles list hard as the preferred surface. No court-pace or ball-condition detail is available to identify a matchup-specific court effect.
- The 2026 Brest Open Groupe Vert is the tournament's 11th edition and uses indoor hard courts.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Oct 2026, 03:35 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Brest Challengeren.wikipedia.org · 27 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Damm's ranking, serve production and first-set record give him the stronger overall route to the win.
- Ranked 107 against Blanchet's 344.
- Won 76.2% of first-serve points and 12.9 aces per match on hard courts.
- Hard-court total points won 50.1% despite a 6-9 record.
- Set 1 record 9-5 in hard best-of-3 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMartin DammEstimated chance64%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets have averaged around ten games, putting the over just ahead.
- Damm's first sets average 10.0 total games.
- Blanchet's first sets average 9.7 total games.
- Damm had two first-set tiebreaks in 14.
- Blanchet had one first-set tiebreak in 14.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined match-length averages sit near the line, with a moderate chance of a third set pushing over.
- Damm's hard best-of-3 matches average 23.7 total games.
- Blanchet's average 22.3 total games.
- Both players had five three-set matches in 14.
- Damm's second sets average 10.6 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Damm's second sets have often stretched beyond nine games, lifting the over slightly.
- Damm's second sets average 10.6 total games.
- Blanchet's second sets average 9.0 total games.
- Damm had five second-set tiebreaks in 14.
- Blanchet had one second-set tiebreak in 14.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are the more common outcome in both players' recent hard-court samples.
- Damm's hard best-of-3 matches average 2.36 sets.
- Blanchet's average 2.36 sets.
- Damm's six wins in the scoreline sample were all 2-0.
- Blanchet has seven 2-0 wins in 14.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Damm's serve and slightly stronger first-set game average make him the likelier early leader.
- Damm won 9 of 14 first sets on hard.
- Blanchet also won 9 of 14 first sets.
- Damm averages 5.71 games won in first sets.
- Damm's first-serve points won 76.2%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMartin DammEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Damm's higher overall level gives him a narrow second-set advantage despite Blanchet's strong second-set record.
- Damm won 8 of 14 second sets on hard.
- Blanchet won 10 of 14 second sets.
- Damm's second sets average 10.6 total games with five tiebreaks.
- Damm's overall match win share is 64%.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMartin DammEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court matches have more often finished without any tiebreak.
- Damm had a tiebreak in 5 of 14 hard matches.
- Blanchet had a tiebreak in 3 of 14.
- Damm had five second-set tiebreaks.
- Blanchet had one first-set and one second-set tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance60%

Previous match context available

Martin Damm

6W 9L

6-4 6-4#181Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-4 7-6(4)#21Francisco Cerundolo

7-5 6-3#59Yannick Hanfmann

7-6(6) 6-7(5) 6-3#166Andrea Guerrieri

6-1 6-4#254Buvaysar Gadamauri

7-6(4) 6-7(4) 6-3#172Pavel Kotov

2-6 6-1 6-1#10Arthur Fils

4-6 6-3 6-4#30Hubert Hurkacz

6-1 6-4#129Shintaro Mochizuki

6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3 6-4#9Frances Tiafoe

2-6 6-3 6-3#64Fabian Marozsan

7-5 6-3#5Daniil Medvedev

6-4 7-6(2)#306Abedallah Shelbayh

6-4 7-6(4)#133Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-4 6-4#39Stefanos Tsitsipas

Ugo Blanchet

9W 6L

3-6 6-3 6-4#186Felix Balshaw

7-5 6-2#400Vadym Ursu

6-3 6-1#723Samir Hamza Reguig

3-6 6-1 6-3#187Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

6-1 6-3#223Jerome Kym

7-6(5) 6-3#676Tom Paris

6-4 6-3#571Daniel De Jonge

6-2 6-1#638Nicolas Tepmahc

6-4 3-6 6-2#152Clement Chidekh

6-3 6-4#485Viktor Durasovic

6-4 3-6 6-4#156Daniil Glinka

4-1 ret.#115Nicolas Mejia

6-4 6-4#181Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

7-5 7-6(4)#249Billy Harris

2-6 6-4 7-6(3)#367Daniel Masur

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MDMartin DammDamm

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Ugo BlanchetBlanchetUB

Ugo Blanchet carries the stronger recent form — Martin Damm's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In62.5%+4.4pp58.1%

1st Serve Won76.2%—75.5%

2nd Serve Won51.3%+4.4pp55.7%

Aces / Match12.9+8.54.4

Double Faults / Match3.31.7 fewer1.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won32.9%+3.8pp36.7%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted35.8%+8.0pp43.8%

Break Pts Saved57.7%+4.6pp62.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.1%+2.1pp52.2%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

62.5%1st Serve In+4.4pp58.1%

76.2%1st Serve Won—75.5%

51.3%2nd Serve Won+4.4pp55.7%

12.9Aces / Match+8.54.4

3.3Double Faults / Match1.7 fewer1.6

Return · 0–1

32.9%Return Pts Won+3.8pp36.7%

Pressure · 0–2

35.8%Break Pts Converted+8.0pp43.8%

57.7%Break Pts Saved+4.6pp62.3%

Points · 0–1

50.1%Total Pts Won+2.1pp52.2%