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Predictions graded

Alibek Kachmazov #361Russia1Seongchan Hong #675South Korea2

Sets 7-6 · 3-6 · 1-6Thu 29 Oct 2026, 04:30 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlibek Kachmazov · 314 places

Alibek Kachmazov

Russia

Kachmazov reached a career-best singles ranking of No. 161 in May 2025. ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #361
Peak ranking: #161 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Seongchan Hong

South Korea

Hong reached his career-high singles ranking of No. 139 on 16 September 2024. ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #675
Peak ranking: #139 · 2024
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Oct 2026, 03:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Kachmazov brings a 14-1 run over his last 15 hard-court matches into this Seoul second round against Hong's 7-8, and that gap frames everything.

Kachmazov is the likely winner, and at 1.6 he is assessed as potential value, as are Kachmazov 2-0 at 2.4 and Kachmazov to take either set at 1.6. Hong at 2.2 does not justify the price.

Context

In those 15 matches he took 60.6% of games and 77.3% of first-serve points and won 29 of 35 sets. His one defeat came against Jay Dylan Hara Friend, ranked 272, on 13 October, so the run is strong though the opposition has mostly sat outside the top 200. Hong's comparable 15-match hard-court sample is 7-8, which is the gap this second round turns on.
- 14 wins and 1 loss in 15 completed hard-court matches between 2026-09-24 and 2026-10-27.
- 60.6% of games won (206/340) and 77.3% of first-serve points won (456/590) in that sample.
- The lone defeat came to Jay Dylan Hara Friend, ranked 272, on 2026-10-13.
That result stands against a 7-8 record across his 15-match hard-court sample, where he won 48.6% of games. In the same stretch he lost 3-6 5-7 to Rei Sakamoto, ranked 124, on 5 October and 7-6 2-6 4-6 to Keisuke Saitoh, ranked 478, on 12 September. The Wu win shows the level he can reach; the surrounding results show how rarely he has held it.
- Beat Yibing Wu, ranked 106, 7-5 6-1 on 2026-10-27.
- Lost 3-6 5-7 to Rei Sakamoto, ranked 124, on 2026-10-05.
- Lost 7-6 2-6 4-6 to Keisuke Saitoh, ranked 478, on 2026-09-12.
- 15-match hard-court sample: 7 wins, 8 losses, 48.6% of games won.
The 6-3 6-1 scoreline was his most one-sided result among the six matches listed, and Noguchi's ranking sits well above Kachmazov's own 361. It followed three-set wins on each of the two previous days, against Dong Ju Kim on 25 October and Woobin Shin on 26 October. Hong also played on 27 October, beating Wu in straight sets.
- Beat Rio Noguchi, ranked 215, 6-3 6-1 on 2026-10-27.
- Beat Woobin Shin, ranked 898, 6-0 4-6 6-3 on 2026-10-26.
- Beat Dong Ju Kim, ranked 729, 4-6 6-3 6-1 on 2026-10-25.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Kachmazov has far stronger recent hard-court results and serve numbers.
- Kachmazov is 14-1 in his last 15 hard-court matches; Hong is 7-8.
- Kachmazov has won 60.6% of games on hard this sample; Hong 48.6%.
- Kachmazov wins 77.3% of first-serve points; Hong 66.4%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlibek KachmazovEstimated chance75%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hong's first sets have often reached double-figure games.
- Kachmazov's first sets average 9.7 total games; Hong's 10.6.
- Each player has had 4 first-set tiebreaks in 15 hard matches.
- Hong's first sets average 10.6 total games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kachmazov's recent matches have often gone beyond 21.5 games.
- Kachmazov's hard matches average 22.7 total games; Hong's 20.7.
- Kachmazov's last six matches average about 26.5 total games.
- Hong's last six matches average about 21.5 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance54%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' set averages are below 2.5, and Hong's sample has only one three-setter.
- Kachmazov's hard matches average 2.33 sets; Hong's 2.07.
- Hong's 15-match hard sample has only one three-setter.
- Kachmazov won 10 of 15 hard matches 2-0.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Kachmazov has been especially strong in second sets.
- Kachmazov has won 13 of 15 second sets on hard.
- Hong has won 7 of 15 second sets.
- Kachmazov won 14 of 15 hard matches overall.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostAlibek KachmazovEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Kachmazov has started strongly and Hong has only a narrow first-set record.
- Kachmazov has won 12 of 15 first sets on hard.
- Hong has won 8 of 15 first sets.
- Kachmazov won 14 of 15 hard matches overall.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlibek KachmazovEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Kachmazov has usually won in straight sets and Hong has often lost 0-2.
- Kachmazov won 10 of 15 hard matches 2-0.
- Hong lost 7 of 15 hard matches 0-2.
- Kachmazov won 12 of 15 first sets and 13 of 15 second sets.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostAlibek Kachmazov 2-0Estimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' hard-court matches did not include a tiebreak.
- Kachmazov had tiebreaks in 6 of 15 hard matches.
- Hong had tiebreaks in 6 of 15 hard matches.
- Each player had 4 first-set tiebreaks in 15 hard matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace average is just below 13.5, and Hong's serve is not high-volume.
- Kachmazov averages 9.3 aces per match on hard.
- Hong averages 4.1 aces per match.
- Combined average is 13.4 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 13.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault average is just above 4.5.
- Kachmazov averages 2.6 double faults per match.
- Hong averages 2.0 double faults per match.
- Combined average is 4.6 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Alibek Kachmazov

14W 1L

6-3 6-1#215Rio Noguchi 6-0 4-6 6-3#898Woobin Shin 4-6 6-3 6-1#729Dong Ju Kim

6-7(4) 7-5 6-3#272Jay Dylan Hara Friend

4-6 7-6(7) 7-6(6)#272Jay Dylan Hara Friend

7-6(4) 6-3#388Omar Jasika

6-3 6-4#296Fajing Sun

7-6(6) 7-6(5)#462Evan Zhu

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#264Charles Broom

6-1 6-1#851Grigoriy Lomakin

6-1 6-2—Yan Lang Chen

6-3 6-4#752Kuan-Shou Chen

6-1 6-3#741Mukund Sasikumar

7-6(4) 6-2#898Sheng Tang

6-3 6-3#582Chase Ferguson

Seongchan Hong

7W 8L

7-5 6-1#106Yibing Wu

6-3 7-5#124Rei Sakamoto

6-7(4) 6-2 6-4#478Keisuke Saitoh

6-3 6-3#592Hikaru Shiraishi

7-6(2) 6-3#795Kousuke Ogura

6-2 6-4#888Yuichiro Inui

6-4 7-6(6)#169Tristan Schoolkate

6-3 7-6(1)#128Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-4 6-1#105Henrique Rocha

6-4 6-2#92Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-2 7-5#375Yosuke Watanuki

7-6(5) 6-4#641Illya Marchenko

6-4 6-1#361Alibek Kachmazov

7-6(8) 6-2#214Maks Kasnikowski

7-5 6-3#119Dalibor Svrcina

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AKAlibek KachmazovKachmazov

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Seongchan HongHongSH

Alibek Kachmazov carries the stronger recent form — Seongchan Hong's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1555.4%—55.4%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1577.3%+10.9pp66.4%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1555.2%+2.5pp52.7%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/159.3+5.24.1

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.60.6 fewer2.0

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1542.4%+3.0pp39.4%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1539.4%+8.8pp30.6%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1572.7%+17.4pp55.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1554.3%+4.8pp49.5%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

55.4%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15—55.4%

77.3%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+10.9pp66.4%

55.2%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+2.5pp52.7%

9.3Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+5.24.1

2.6Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.6 fewer2.0

Return · 1–0

42.4%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+3.0pp39.4%

Pressure · 2–0

39.4%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+8.8pp30.6%

72.7%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+17.4pp55.3%

Points · 1–0

54.3%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+4.8pp49.5%

Alibek Kachmazov

Seongchan Hong

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Alibek Kachmazov

Alibek Kachmazov

Alibek Kachmazov

Alibek Kachmazov 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 2 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Alibek Kachmazov

Seongchan Hong

Stat Battle