South KoreaSeoul - South KoreaFinished

Predictions graded

Alibek Kachmazov #361Russia2Rio Noguchi #215Japan0

Sets 6-3 · 6-1Tue 27 Oct 2026, 06:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions7–0100%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRio Noguchi · 146 places

Alibek Kachmazov

Russia

Kachmazov reached a career-best singles ranking of No. 161 in May 2025. ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #361
Peak ranking: #161 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Rio Noguchi

Japan

Japanese player born on 28 December 1998. The ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface and records a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 196, reached in August 2025.

Current ranking: #215
Peak ranking: #196 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 168 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Oct 2026, 15:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Kachmazov's 14-1 hard-court run and 78% first-serve points won against Noguchi's 7-8 stretch, with Noguchi actually the higher-ranked man at 215 to 361, is the tension in this Seoul first round.

Kachmazov should win, most likely in straight sets. The 1.44 match price is too short, and the 1.5 second-set and 2.1 straight-sets quotes are merely fair, so no quoted price is worth taking.

Context

Kachmazov's serve has been the engine of a 14-1 stretch and is the part of his game Noguchi must solve first.
The first serve is the clearest separator: 78% of first-serve points won across 15 matches is a heavy hold rate, and 9.8 aces per match brings free points without long rallies. Noguchi's 66.3% first-serve points won is well below that. The sample is 15 matches and most of Kachmazov's wins came against lower-ranked opponents, so the figure flatters him somewhat.
- 78% first-serve points won (460 of 590) across 15 hard-court matches, 23 Sep-26 Oct 2026
- 9.8 aces per match (147 aces in 15 matches) in the same sample
- 55.6% second-serve points won (258 of 464) and 72.2% break points saved (52 of 72)
Noguchi has tended to start slowly, which matters against an opponent with a strong first-set record.
First sets have been the weakest part of Noguchi's recent hard-court record: 6-9 with a negative game differential and only two tiebreaks in 15 opening sets, so those sets are lost by clear margins rather than narrow ones. Against an opponent who has started fast, a slow opening set puts immediate scoreboard pressure on Noguchi's serve. Fifteen matches is a modest sample, so this is a tendency rather than a dependable pattern.
- 6-9 in first sets across 15 hard-court matches, 21 Jul-20 Oct 2026
- 4.27 first-set games won against 5.13 lost per set
- Two tiebreaks in 15 first sets
Noguchi's hold has leaned on saving break points at an ordinary rate rather than on dominant serving.
Noguchi has saved 51.8% of break points across 15 hard-court matches, conceding roughly one in two chances faced, a lot of pressure to absorb. His 47.5% second-serve points won shows where the trouble starts: when the first ball misses, the point tilts. Kachmazov converts 41.9% of his break points, which softens the effect.
- 58 of 112 break points saved (51.8%) over 15 hard-court matches
- 66.3% first-serve points won (447 of 674) and 47.5% second-serve points won (177 of 373)

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Alibek Kachmazov

1.44fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 69.4%

−1.4ppshort

Kachmazov has dominated this surface recently and his serve has been much stronger than Noguchi's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Kachmazov has dominated this surface recently and his serve has been much stronger than Noguchi's.
- 14-1 in the last 15 hard-court matches
- Set1 12-3 and set2 13-2 on hard
- 78% first-serve points won and 9.8 aces per match
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlibek KachmazovEstimated chance68%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A straight-set result is the most likely path, and those matches usually stay under this line.
- Kachmazov averages 22.7 total games
- Noguchi averages 23.0 total games
- Kachmazov has ten 2-0 wins in 15
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 22.5Estimated chance56%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Kachmazov's second-set record is the strongest part of his hard-court sample.
- Kachmazov set2 13-2
- Noguchi set2 7-8
- Kachmazov total points won 54.6%
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAlibek KachmazovEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Kachmazov has started strongly on hard courts and holds a clear set-one record.
- Kachmazov set1 12-3
- Noguchi set1 6-9
- Kachmazov 78% first-serve points won
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlibek KachmazovEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kachmazov's frequent straight-set wins make under 2.5 sets more likely.
- Kachmazov 10 of 15 wins 2-0
- Noguchi 8 of 15 straight-set matches
- Kachmazov set1 12-3 and set2 13-2
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most sets in these samples did not reach a tiebreak.
- Kachmazov 6 of 15 matches with a tiebreak
- Noguchi 5 of 15 matches with a tiebreak
- Kachmazov 7 tiebreak sets; Noguchi 4
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average sits just above the line.
- Kachmazov 2.5 double faults per match
- Noguchi 1.3 double faults per match
- Kachmazov 37 double faults in 15 matches
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Kachmazov's serve volume gives the match a realistic path past the line.
- Kachmazov 9.8 aces per match
- Noguchi 1.9 aces per match
- Kachmazov 147 aces in 15 matches
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 11.5Estimated chance51%

Previous match context available

Alibek Kachmazov

14W 1L

6-0 4-6 6-3#898Woobin Shin 4-6 6-3 6-1#729Dong Ju Kim

6-7(4) 7-5 6-3#272Jay Dylan Hara Friend

4-6 7-6(7) 7-6(6)#272Jay Dylan Hara Friend

7-6(4) 6-3#388Omar Jasika

6-3 6-4#296Fajing Sun

7-6(6) 7-6(5)#462Evan Zhu

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#264Charles Broom

6-1 6-1#851Grigoriy Lomakin

6-1 6-2—Yan Lang Chen

6-3 6-4#752Kuan-Shou Chen

6-1 6-3#741Mukund Sasikumar

7-6(4) 6-2#898Sheng Tang

6-3 6-3#582Chase Ferguson

6-2 6-2—Xirui Han

Rio Noguchi

7W 8L

2-6 6-1 7-6(3)#382Kasidit Samrej

6-3 4-6 6-1#131Alexandre Muller

6-4 6-1#119Dalibor Svrcina

6-1 6-4#427Masamichi Imamura

6-1 7-6(2)#172Pavel Kotov

6-3 6-3#483Colin Sinclair

3-6 6-2 6-3#417Kaichi Uchida

6-2 7-5#388Omar Jasika

7-6(5) 6-2#734Rigele Te

4-6 6-4 6-2#91Bu Yunchaokete

6-3 7-6(6)#504Alan Magadan

7-6(1) 4-6 6-1#762Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes

6-2 6-4#264Charles Broom

3-6 6-4 6-0#580Keegan Rice

5-7 6-3 6-2#208Braden Shick

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AKAlibek KachmazovKachmazov

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Rio NoguchiNoguchiRN

Alibek Kachmazov carries the stronger recent form — Rio Noguchi's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In56.0%+8.4pp64.4%

1st Serve Won78.0%+11.7pp66.3%

2nd Serve Won55.6%+8.1pp47.5%

Aces / Match9.8+7.91.9

Double Faults / Match2.51.2 fewer1.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won42.1%—41.8%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted41.9%+1.1pp40.8%

Break Pts Saved72.2%+20.4pp51.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.6%+4.4pp50.2%

Serve · 3–2

56.0%1st Serve In+8.4pp64.4%

78.0%1st Serve Won+11.7pp66.3%

55.6%2nd Serve Won+8.1pp47.5%

9.8Aces / Match+7.91.9

2.5Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer1.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

42.1%Return Pts Won—41.8%

Pressure · 2–0

41.9%Break Pts Converted+1.1pp40.8%

72.2%Break Pts Saved+20.4pp51.8%

Points · 1–0

54.6%Total Pts Won+4.4pp50.2%

Alibek Kachmazov

Rio Noguchi

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Alibek Kachmazov

Alibek Kachmazov 2-0

Alibek Kachmazov

Alibek Kachmazov

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 1 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Alibek Kachmazov

Rio Noguchi

Stat Battle