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Predictions graded

Yuta Shimizu #376Japan1Yu Hsiou Hsu #287Taiwan2

Sets 5-7 · 6-3 · 4-6Wed 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions6–367%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageYu Hsiou Hsu · 89 places

Yuta Shimizu

Japan

Japanese left-hander who lists hard courts as his preferred surface. ITF records show a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 181 on 24 February 2025.

Current ranking: #376
Peak ranking: #181 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 163 cm

Yu Hsiou Hsu

Taiwan

Reached a career-high No. 158 on 16 October 2023. Hard courts are listed as his favourite surface.

Current ranking: #287
Peak ranking: #158 · 2023
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 15:19 · Europe/Bucharest

A higher-ranked Hsu whose matches usually finish in straight sets against a left-hander with the best serve numbers on either side.

Hsu is the marginal pick to win, but 1.55 for the match, 1.6 for the opening set and 2.4 for a 2-0 Hsu win ask more than his record justifies. Shimizu at 2.3 is the one quoted price that offers something.

Context

Hsu's results cluster at the extremes: six 2-0 wins and five 0-2 losses from 14 hard-court matches, with just one 2-1 win and two 1-2 losses.
His matches average 2.21 sets, so the likeliest shape is a straight-set finish in either direction. That helps the case for a short match but says nothing about which man wins it.
- 14 completed hard-court matches, 22 July 2026 to 27 October 2026; one retired match excluded.
- Scorelines: six 2-0 wins, five 0-2 losses, one 2-1 win, two 1-2 losses.
- Average 2.21 sets per match across the sample; four matches contained a tiebreak.
Shimizu's 492 of 693 first-serve points won and 55 of 96 break points saved give him a measured service baseline for the sample.
That baseline is why this stays close despite Shimizu's lower ranking and four losses in his last six listed matches. Hsu's serving level is unknown from the available record, so his case rests on ranking and set scorelines rather than shot data.
- 15 hard-court matches, 7 July 2026 to 26 October 2026.
- First-serve points won: 71% (492 of 693).
- Break points saved: 57.3% (55 of 96).
- Hsu's aggregate serve and return metrics are not available.
It was the most lopsided of the defeats in Shimizu's 7-8 hard-court run, a 4-12 games scoreline against a lower-ranked opponent.
The loss shows his serve numbers have not produced steady results, which keeps the 2.3 price interesting rather than comfortable. He answered with a 6-7, 6-3, 6-4 win over Mili Poljicak on 26 October.
- Hard-court match, 18 October 2026: Max Purcell (ranked 636) beat Shimizu 6-3, 6-1.
- Shimizu won four games and lost 12 across the two sets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yu Hsiou Hsu

1.60fair 1.89

BetBugs 53% · Market 62.5%

−9.5ppshort

Hsu's first-set record and lower games lost give him a slight opening-set advantage.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Yu Hsiou Hsu 2-0

2.40fair 2.78

BetBugs 36% · Market 41.7%

−5.7ppshort

Hsu's hard-court scorelines are heavily tilted toward 2-0 wins, and Shimizu has lost 0-2 five times.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hsu has the higher ranking, the better first-set record and more straight-set wins.
- Hsu is ranked 287 against Shimizu's 376.
- Hsu is 8-6 in first sets and 7-7 in second sets on hard courts.
- His hard-court scorelines include six 2-0 wins and only one 2-1 win in 14 matches.
- Shimizu is 7-8 on hard courts and has won 47.2% of his sets.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonYu Hsiou HsuEstimated chance53%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shimizu's longer matches and the close set records make a total just above the line plausible.
- Shimizu's hard-court matches average 23.6 total games.
- Hsu's hard-court matches average 21.1 total games.
- Shimizu's first and second sets average 10.0 and 9.27 games.
- Hsu's first and second sets average 9.14 and 9.64 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Shimizu's first-set games sit above the line, and the first-set records are close enough to extend sets.
- Shimizu's first sets average 10.0 total games.
- Hsu's first sets average 9.14 total games.
- Shimizu had two first-set tiebreaks in 15 hard-court matches.
- Hsu had one first-set tiebreak in 14 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Shimizu's second-set games average below the line and his matches have no second-set tiebreaks.
- Shimizu's second sets average 9.27 total games.
- Shimizu's second-set games are 4.53-4.73.
- No second-set tiebreaks appeared in Shimizu's 15 hard-court matches.
- Hsu's second sets average 9.64 total games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hsu's record is dominated by straight-set results, and Shimizu also has a meaningful share of 2-0 finishes.
- Hsu's hard-court scorelines include six 2-0 wins and five 0-2 losses.
- Only 3 of Hsu's 14 hard-court matches went to a third set.
- Shimizu has four 2-0 wins in 15 hard-court matches.
- Hsu's hard-court matches average 2.21 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Hsu's first-set record and lower games lost give him a slight opening-set advantage.
- Hsu is 8-6 in first sets on hard courts.
- He averages 4.86 games won and 4.29 lost in first sets.
- Shimizu is 7-8 in first sets.
- Shimizu's first-set games average 5.0-5.0.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonYu Hsiou HsuEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hsu has the slightly better second-set games record and a small edge in total games.
- Hsu is 7-7 in second sets on hard courts.
- He averages 4.93 games won and 4.71 lost in second sets.
- His second-set total games average 9.64.
- Shimizu's second-set total average is 9.27.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostYu Hsiou HsuEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most recent hard-court matches for both players finished without a tiebreak.
- Eight of 29 combined hard-court matches had a tiebreak.
- Hsu's first sets average 9.14 total games.
- Shimizu's second sets average 9.27 total games.
- Both players have more straight-set scorelines than three-set ones.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance64%

Previous match context available

Yuta Shimizu

7W 8L

6-7(2) 6-3 6-4#270Mili Poljicak

6-3 6-1#636Max Purcell

5-7 6-2 7-6(5)#180Bernard Tomic

7-6(11) 6-2#133Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-2 2-6 7-5#339Philip Sekulic

6-4 6-4#398Arthur Weber

5-7 7-5 7-6(3)#480Hiroki Moriya

6-4 6-4#382Kasidit Samrej

6-1 6-1#880Aditya Vishal Balsekar

6-4 7-5#307Anton Matusevich

4-6 6-3 6-3#333Johannus Monday

6-2 7-5#233Liam Broady

7-5 6-1#415Justin Boulais

6-2 4-6 6-2#272Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-2 6-4#638Ryan Colby

Yu Hsiou Hsu

8W 7L

4-6 7-5 7-6(7)#196Keegan Smith

6-2 6-4#448Jie Cui

3-6 6-2 7-5#413Olle Wallin

6-3 6-3#221Ilya Ivashka

6-4 7-5#551James Kent Trotter

7-6(4) 5-5 ret.#228Elias Ymer

6-3 6-2#250Matthew Dellavedova

6-1 6-1#427Masamichi Imamura

6-3 6-2#659Ryuki Matsuda

6-2 7-6(5)#752Kuan-Shou Chen

7-6(5) 6-3—Kai-I Wang

3-6 6-1 6-2#406Sebastian Gorzny

6-3 6-4#147Michael Mmoh

6-3 7-6(5)#96Toby Samuel

6-3 6-3#331Mees Rottgering

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

YSYuta ShimizuShimizu

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Yu Hsiou HsuHsuYH

Yu Hsiou Hsu carries the stronger recent form — Yuta Shimizu's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1561.7%+4.7pp66.4%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1571.0%+3.5pp67.5%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1547.3%+7.3pp54.6%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.6+0.83.8

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.51.8 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1536.7%+1.4pp38.1%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1538.5%+1.2pp39.7%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1557.3%—57.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1549.5%+1.1pp50.6%

Serve · 2–3

61.7%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+4.7pp66.4%

71.0%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+3.5pp67.5%

47.3%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+7.3pp54.6%

4.6Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+0.83.8

3.5Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.8 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

36.7%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.4pp38.1%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

38.5%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+1.2pp39.7%

57.3%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15—57.6%

Points · 0–1

49.5%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.1pp50.6%