ChinaNingbo - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Mili Poljicak #270Croatia1Yuta Shimizu #376Japan2

Sets 7-6 · 3-6 · 4-6Mon 26 Oct 2026, 07:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–350%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMili Poljicak · 106 places

Mili Poljicak

Croatia

Croatian right-hander, born 13 July 2004, reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 257 on 30 June 2025. ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #270
Peak ranking: #257 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Yuta Shimizu

Japan

Japanese left-hander who lists hard courts as his preferred surface. ITF records show a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 181 on 24 February 2025.

Current ranking: #376
Peak ranking: #181 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 163 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 12:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Two hard-court players short on recent wins meet in the Ningbo first round, where Shimizu's return numbers give him the narrower edge.

Shimizu to win, probably in two sets, is the likelier outcome. The quoted 1.85 does not pay for it, asking for slightly more than the record supports, and Poljicak at 1.95 is no better. No reviewed price is worth taking.

Context

Shimizu arrived in Ningbo off a heavy defeat to a player ranked well outside the top 500.
One result cannot define a player, and Purcell's ranking makes the scoreline more striking than predictive. Still, it is the freshest hard-court data point on Shimizu and came after a two-week gap in his completed matches. Against Poljicak it is a reminder that Shimizu's recent form is thin, even if his 15-match hard-court numbers remain the stronger set.
- 18 October 2026: Shimizu lost 3-6 1-6 to Max Purcell (ranked No. 636) on hard, winning 4 games and losing 12.
- It was Shimizu's most recent completed hard-court match in the supplied record.
Poljicak has started matches well in this sample and faded in the set that follows.
In first sets he averaged 4.6 games won against 4.4 lost; in second sets that flipped to 3.0 won against 5.6 lost, with no tiebreaks in any of the five matches. For this fixture it suggests an early lead has not been consolidated, and the middle set has been his weakest stretch of the sample. The sample is five matches, so it is a pattern to watch rather than a settled habit.
- Hard-court sample of 5 matches, 28 September to 13 October 2026: set one 3-2, averaging 4.6 games won and 4.4 lost.
- Same sample: set two 1-4, averaging 3.0 games won and 5.6 lost, with no tiebreaks in the five matches.
The draw establishes the immediate tournament setting for this matchup. It is a first-round meeting rather than a later-stage rematch, so neither player has accumulated a Ningbo singles route before this fixture. The supplied listing gives a 27 October start time, which differs from the match kickoff metadata.
- The Ningbo first-round listing pairs Poljicak with Shimizu for 27 October at 02:00 UTC.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 12:32 · Europe/BucharestMatchStatmatchstat.com · 25 Oct 2026
The doubles entry gives Poljicak an additional event commitment at the same venue. It may become relevant only if the doubles scheduling creates a short turnaround later in the week. No match time, completed doubles result, or unusual workload is established here.
- Poljicak and Milic are listed against Leong and Pankin in the Ningbo doubles draw.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 12:32 · Europe/BucharestFlashscorewww.flashscore.com · 25 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yuta Shimizu

1.85fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 54.1%

−2.1ppshort

Shimizu's return and total-point numbers give him a slight upper hand in a close first-round match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Shimizu's return and total-point numbers give him a slight upper hand in a close first-round match.
- Shimizu has a 6-9 hard-court record and wins 49.1% of total points.
- He wins 36.8% of return points on hard, compared with Poljicak's 32.9%.
- Shimizu has played 15 hard-court matches in the sample; Poljicak has played 5.
- Poljicak has won only 1 of 5 second sets on hard.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonYuta ShimizuEstimated chance52%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined game averages sit near the line, and Shimizu's matches averaged above it.
- Poljicak's five hard-court matches averaged 21.8 total games.
- Shimizu's 15 hard-court matches averaged 23.2 total games.
- Poljicak's hard matches included a 31-game contest.
- Shimizu's hard matches included a 37-game contest.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined hard-court record points toward a straight-set finish.
- Three of Poljicak's five hard-court matches finished in two sets.
- Ten of Shimizu's 15 hard-court matches finished in two sets.
- Poljicak's hard-court matches averaged 2.4 sets.
- Shimizu's hard-court matches averaged 2.33 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Poljicak's first-set record gives him a slight upper hand to take the opener.
- Poljicak has won 3 of 5 first sets on hard.
- Shimizu has won 7 of 15 first sets on hard.
- Poljicak wins 69.6% of first-serve points on hard.
- Shimizu wins 70.1% of first-serve points on hard.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMili PoljicakEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The recent hard-court samples mostly finished without a tiebreak.
- Poljicak has had no tiebreaks in five hard-court matches.
- Shimizu has had four tiebreaks in 15 hard-court matches.
- Eleven of Shimizu's 15 hard-court matches had no tiebreak.
- None of Poljicak's five hard-court matches had a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' double-fault rates combine to a total above the line.
- Poljicak averages 2.6 double faults per hard match.
- Shimizu averages 3.5 double faults per hard match.
- Their combined hard-court average is 6.1 double faults per match.
- Shimizu has 52 double faults in 15 hard matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rate sits just above the line, with Poljicak providing most of the serve power.
- Poljicak averages 7.0 aces per hard match.
- Shimizu averages 4.7 aces per hard match.
- Their combined hard-court average is 11.7 aces per match.
- Poljicak has 35 aces in five hard matches.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 11.5Estimated chance52%

Mili Poljicak

7W 8L

6-2 6-3#171Francesco Maestrelli

5-7 6-3 6-3#262Max Hans Rehberg

6-4 3-6 7-5#693Patrick Brady

6-2 6-0#105Henrique Rocha

6-1 6-4#256Max Basing

6-4 6-4#133Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-2 6-3#138Matej Dodig

6-4 6-3#302Max Schoenhaus

7-6(6) 6-1#556Sebastian Dominko

6-4 6-0—Vaal Urankar

6-1 6-4#71Facundo Diaz Acosta

7-5 6-4#204Juan Pablo Varillas

7-6(3) 6-7(4) 7-5#131Alexandre Muller

6-7(8) 6-3 6-4#128Nikoloz Basilashvili

7-6(6) 7-6(2)#303Enrico Dalla Valle

Yuta Shimizu

6W 9L

6-3 6-1#636Max Purcell

5-7 6-2 7-6(5)#180Bernard Tomic

7-6(11) 6-2#133Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-2 2-6 7-5#339Philip Sekulic

6-4 6-4#403Arthur Weber

5-7 7-5 7-6(3)#480Hiroki Moriya

6-4 6-4#382Kasidit Samrej

6-1 6-1#893Aditya Vishal Balsekar

6-4 7-5#307Anton Matusevich

4-6 6-3 6-3#333Johannus Monday

6-2 7-5#233Liam Broady

7-5 6-1#415Justin Boulais

6-2 4-6 6-2#272Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-2 6-4#644Ryan Colby

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#147Michael Mmoh

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MPMili PoljicakPoljicak

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Yuta ShimizuShimizuYS

Yuta Shimizu carries the stronger recent form — Mili Poljicak's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In57.2%+3.6pp60.8%

1st Serve Won71.5%+1.4pp70.1%

2nd Serve Won50.7%+3.1pp47.6%

Aces / Match6.8+2.14.7

Double Faults / Match1.91.6 fewer3.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won33.9%+2.9pp36.8%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted36.6%+1.3pp37.9%

Break Pts Saved50.0%+8.8pp58.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.1%+1.0pp49.1%

Serve · 4–1

57.2%1st Serve In+3.6pp60.8%

71.5%1st Serve Won+1.4pp70.1%

50.7%2nd Serve Won+3.1pp47.6%

6.8Aces / Match+2.14.7

1.9Double Faults / Match1.6 fewer3.5

Return · 0–1

33.9%Return Pts Won+2.9pp36.8%

Pressure · 0–2

36.6%Break Pts Converted+1.3pp37.9%

50.0%Break Pts Saved+8.8pp58.8%

Points · 0–1

48.1%Total Pts Won+1.0pp49.1%