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Predictions graded

Lucrezia Stefanini #107Italy1Ayla Aksu #159Türkiye2

Sets 6-2 · 4-6 · 3-6Wed 28 Oct 2026, 19:30 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions5–456%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLucrezia Stefanini · 52 places

Lucrezia Stefanini

Italy

Italian right-hander born in May 1998. Her career-high singles ranking was No. 99 in August 2023; no current, reliably sourced injury or comeback signal was returned in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #107
Peak ranking: #99 · 2023
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 164 cm

Ayla Aksu

Türkiye

Turkish right-hander, born 15 July 1996. Her WTA ranking rose from No. 305 in February 2026 to No. 202 in early August; no current injury or absence signal was returned in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #159
Peak ranking: #198 · 2026
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 15:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Stefanini is the higher-ranked, more consistent hard-court player, but she lost to Aksu in three sets on 11 October, so this second round is closer than the ranking gap suggests.

Stefanini remains the likelier winner, but 1.33 asks for about a 75% chance while her 15-match record supports something nearer 56%. Aksu at 3.3 is the one quoted price that offers something.

Context

Aksu won the only recent meeting between the two, so she arrives without a psychological deficit against the higher-ranked player.
That result is the sharpest counterweight to Stefanini's better season-long numbers: Aksu took the deciding set 6-2 after dropping the second. One match does not overturn a 15-match sample, but it shows Aksu can stay in the rallies long enough to force a third set against this opponent.
- Aksu won 7-5, 2-6, 6-2 on 11 October 2026, a three-set match of 28 games.
- Stefanini is 10-5 and Aksu 8-7 across their 15-match hard-court samples.
Stefanini's second-set record is the clearest statistical edge either player owns in this matchup.
Her first sets are almost level at 7-8, so the second set is where her 15-match record separates from Aksu's 8-7. The pattern suggests her level holds as a match develops, though 15 matches is a modest basis for a firm claim.
- Set 2 record: 11 wins, 4 losses across 15 hard-court matches, 30 August to 27 October 2026.
- Average second-set games: 5.4 won, 3.8 lost.
Aksu's first-set deficit is a recurring pattern rather than a one-off, which matters in a best-of-three format.
She has often had to come from behind, and her overall 8-7 record shows she frequently does. Against Stefanini, who is 7-8 in first sets over the same span, the opening set reads as close rather than a clear edge either way.
- Set 1 record: 6 wins, 9 losses in 15 hard-court matches, 22 July to 26 October 2026.
- Average first-set games: 4.20 won, 5.07 lost, with no first-set tiebreaks in that sample.
Her opening win came the day before this second round, with limited court time taken.
A 17-game win is the kind of brief outing that fits her straight-set tendencies: nine of her 15 hard-court matches in the sample finished in two sets. It says little about how she will handle Aksu's serve, but it kept the first-round workload light.
- Beat Isabella Maria Serban 6-3, 6-2 on 27 October 2026, winning 12 games to 5.
- Nine of her 15 hard-court matches in the sample finished in two sets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stefanini's stronger games and points won give her a clear but not large advantage, while Aksu's recent head-to-head win keeps the match close.
- Stefanini is 10-5 on hard courts in the sample with 54.8% games won and 52.3% total points won.
- Aksu is 8-7 on hard courts with 49.0% games won and 50.1% total points won.
- Aksu won their hard-court meeting 2-1 on 11 October.
- Stefanini has the better first-serve-in rate and fewer double faults per match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLucrezia StefaniniEstimated chance56%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The match looks close on serve and the recent head-to-head went long, making over slightly more likely than under.
- Stefanini's hard-court matches average 22.13 total games.
- Aksu's hard-court matches average 22.87 total games.
- Their 11 October meeting lasted 28 games over three sets.
- Both players have six three-set matches in the 15-match hard-court samples.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Short first sets are common enough to make under slightly more likely than over.
- Stefanini's first sets average 9.53 total games.
- Aksu's first sets average 9.27 total games.
- Only one first-set tiebreak appears across the two 15-match samples.
- Their recent first set went to 12 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined second-set average is just above the line, and Aksu's tighter sets lift over slightly.
- Stefanini's second sets average 9.2 total games.
- Aksu's second sets average 9.93 total games.
- Aksu has two second-set tiebreaks in the sample; Stefanini has none.
- Their recent second set finished 6-2, under the line.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Stefanini has been markedly stronger in second sets, and that pattern held in the recent head-to-head.
- Stefanini is 11-4 in second sets across 15 hard-court matches.
- Aksu is 8-7 in second sets across the same surface sample.
- Stefanini won the second set 6-2 in their 11 October meeting.
- Stefanini averages 5.4 second-set games won to 3.8 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostLucrezia StefaniniEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' recent hard-court matches have finished in straight sets.
- Stefanini has nine two-set matches in 15 hard-court matches.
- Aksu has nine two-set matches in 15 hard-court matches.
- Stefanini's scorelines include six 2-0 wins.
- Aksu's scorelines include four 2-0 wins and five 0-2 losses.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stefanini's overall quality gives her a narrow first-set edge, but her own first-set record is only slightly positive.
- Stefanini is 7-8 in first sets across 15 hard-court matches.
- Aksu is 6-9 in first sets across 15 hard-court matches.
- Aksu won the first set 7-5 in their 11 October meeting.
- Stefanini averages 4.87 first-set games won to 4.67 lost; Aksu averages 4.20 to 5.07.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonLucrezia StefaniniEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The available set evidence points to few tiebreaks in matches involving either player.
- Stefanini has one match with a tiebreak in 15 hard-court matches.
- Aksu has two matches with a tiebreak in 15 hard-court matches.
- Their recent head-to-head had no tiebreak.
- Set-level tiebreak counts are low for both players.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stefanini almost never serves aces and Aksu's rate is still below one per match, favoring under.
- Stefanini has two aces across 15 hard-court matches.
- Aksu has 13 aces across 15 hard-court matches.
- Combined average is about 1.0 ace per match.
- Aksu's ace rate is 0.9 per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Aksu's high double-fault rate pushes the combined total just above the line.
- Stefanini averages 2.0 double faults per match.
- Aksu averages 3.7 double faults per match.
- Combined average is about 5.7 per match.
- Aksu has 55 double faults in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Lucrezia Stefanini

10W 5L

6-3 6-2#474Isabella Maria Serban

6-2 7-5#132Bianca Vanessa Andreescu

6-2 6-3#215Harmony Tan

3-6 6-2 7-5#443Laura Mair

7-5 2-6 6-2#159Ayla Aksu

6-2 6-3#72Anna Blinkova

6-3 7-5#154Polina Iatcenko

6-2 6-3#127Noma Akugue Noha

7-5 6-4#206Carole Monnet

6-4 1-6 6-1#92Leolia Jeanjean

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#438Cagla Buyukakcay

3-6 6-4 6-2#322Elena Ruxandra Bertea

6-3 6-4#201Nadia Podoroska

6-4 6-1#35Jasmine Paolini

6-3 4-6 6-1#103Dayana Yastremska

Ayla Aksu

8W 7L

6-4 6-3#276Lisa Zaar

6-4 6-3#616Dalayna Hewitt

7-5 2-6 6-2#107Lucrezia Stefanini

7-5 6-3#115Himeno Sakatsume

3-6 6-3 6-4#209Fiona Crawley

3-6 6-3 6-3#232Alicia Dudeney

6-3 6-2#157Emiliana Arango

6-3 6-3#190Elena Pridankina

6-1 5-7 6-2#177Han Shi

6-1 7-6(3)#278Yuki Naito

4-6 7-5 7-5#286Elena Malygina

6-2 6-3#107Lucrezia Stefanini

6-4 7-5#469Alana Smith

2-6 7-6(4) 6-2#673Allegra Korpanec Davies

6-3 6-2#40Daria Snigur

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LSLucrezia StefaniniStefanini

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Ayla AksuAksuAA

Lucrezia Stefanini carries the stronger recent form — Ayla Aksu's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In74.1%+10.8pp63.3%

1st Serve Won56.1%+2.0pp58.1%

2nd Serve Won50.0%+3.8pp46.2%

Aces / Match0.1+0.80.9

Double Faults / Match2.01.7 fewer3.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won49.9%+3.6pp46.3%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted49.1%+1.0pp48.1%

Break Pts Saved58.5%+6.8pp51.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.3%+2.2pp50.1%

Serve · 3–2

74.1%1st Serve In+10.8pp63.3%

56.1%1st Serve Won+2.0pp58.1%

50.0%2nd Serve Won+3.8pp46.2%

0.1Aces / Match+0.80.9

2.0Double Faults / Match1.7 fewer3.7

Return · 1–0

49.9%Return Pts Won+3.6pp46.3%

Pressure · 2–0

49.1%Break Pts Converted+1.0pp48.1%

58.5%Break Pts Saved+6.8pp51.7%

Points · 1–0

52.3%Total Pts Won+2.2pp50.1%