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Predictions graded

Tom Paris #676France1Borna Gojo #148Croatia2

Sets 7-6 · 4-6 · 4-6Tue 27 Oct 2026, 11:45 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions5–456%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBorna Gojo · 528 places

Tom Paris

France

Paris is the French right-hander in this matchup, ranked No. 664 and listed at 191cm with a one-handed backhand. His recorded 2026 results came mostly indoors on hard courts.

Current ranking: #676
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Borna Gojo

Croatia

A 196 cm Croatian right-hander who reached a career-high No. 72 on 20 November 2023. The supplied structured feed lists his current ranking at No. 163.

Current ranking: #148
Peak ranking: #72 · 2023
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 03:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Borna Gojo, ranked 148, meets home player Tom Paris, ranked 676, with the serve and ranking to suggest he wins this indoor first round, though Paris has won six of ten hard matches and two in the last two days.

The 1.25 match price asks more than his record supports, the 1.33 first-set and 1.30 second-set prices are also short, and the 1.73 for a 2-0 Gojo win is merely fair. No reviewed price is worthwhile.

Context

Paris is the lower-ranked player here but the one with recent completed matches behind him.
Two tight wins in the two days before this first round give Paris immediate rhythm on the surface, and both matches were settled by small margins rather than one-sided sets. The counterweight is that neither opponent sits near Gojo's ranking, and Paris lost his previous completed hard-court match to Ugo Blanchet (344) in straight sets on 13 October 2026.
- 26 October 2026: beat Kilian Feldbausch (ranked 261) 7-6, 7-6 on indoor hard.
- 25 October 2026: beat Romain Faucon (ranked 493) 6-7, 6-2, 7-5 on indoor hard.
- 13 October 2026: lost to Ugo Blanchet (ranked 344) 6-7, 3-6 on indoor hard.
A first serve landing 67.9% of the time and winning three quarters of those points gives Gojo a cheap route to games and makes him hard to break indoors. The weaker side is the second serve, where he won 45% (158 of 351), and his break-point conversion was 35.9% (28 of 78), so pressure on his own delivery is where Paris could find openings.
- 15 hard-court matches tracked, 11 August to 22 October 2026: 10.3 aces per match (155 total).
- First serve in 67.9% (744 of 1095); first-serve points won 75.7% (563 of 744).
- Second-serve points won 45% (158 of 351); break points converted 35.9% (28 of 78).
Paris's opening sets have regularly gone past nine games, so an early set against a bigger server may be settled by a handful of points rather than a break. He won five and lost five of those first sets, which is an even split rather than a trend in either direction, and his second sets were shorter at 8.8 games on average.
- 10 hard-court matches tracked, 19 March to 26 October 2026: first sets averaged 11.8 total games (5.8 won, 6.0 lost).
- Five first-set tiebreaks across those ten matches; second sets averaged 8.8 games.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Borna Gojo

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

−10.0ppshort

Gojo has faced stronger opposition and holds a clear ranking and serve advantage.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Borna Gojo

1.33fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 75.2%

−10.2ppshort

Gojo's serve and stronger first-set record make him the likely early leader.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Gojo has faced stronger opposition and holds a clear ranking and serve advantage.
- Gojo is ranked 148; Paris is ranked 676.
- Gojo is 9-6 on hard in his Last 15; Paris is 6-4.
- Gojo won 51.9% of games and 51.1% of points in that span.
- Gojo is 10-5 in first sets and 10-5 in second sets on hard.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBorna GojoEstimated chance70%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Paris's first sets often go beyond nine games, and a tiebreak is possible.
- Paris's first sets average 11.8 total games.
- Gojo's first sets average 9.4 total games.
- Paris has five first-set tiebreaks in ten hard matches.
- Gojo has one first-set tiebreak in 15 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Paris's sets tend to run long, and his recent matches have often passed this line.
- Gojo's hard matches average 22.5 total games.
- Paris's hard matches average 24.8 total games.
- Paris's last six completed matches average 24.7 games.
- Paris's first sets average 11.8 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 23.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gojo's second sets tend to last beyond nine games.
- Gojo's second sets average 10.5 total games.
- Paris's second sets average 8.8 total games.
- Gojo has four second-set tiebreaks in 15 hard matches.
- Paris has one second-set tiebreak in ten hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gojo usually finishes hard-court wins in straight sets.
- Gojo's hard matches average 2.27 sets.
- Paris's hard matches average 2.4 sets.
- Gojo won 8 of 15 hard matches 2-0.
- Gojo has only one 2-1 win in 15 hard matches.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Gojo's serve and stronger first-set record make him the likely early leader.
- Gojo is 10-5 in first sets on hard.
- Paris is 5-5 in first sets on hard.
- Gojo wins 75.7% of first-serve points.
- Gojo has one first-set tiebreak in 15 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostBorna GojoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Gojo's serve and second-set record give him the advantage.
- Gojo is 10-5 in second sets on hard.
- Paris is 5-5 in second sets on hard.
- Gojo saves 68.2% of break points.
- Gojo has four second-set tiebreaks in 15 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonBorna GojoEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Gojo's hard-court wins have mostly come in straight sets.
- Gojo won 8 of 15 hard matches 2-0.
- Gojo won 9 of 15 hard matches.
- Gojo won 10 of 15 first sets.
- Gojo won 10 of 15 second sets.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostBorna Gojo 2-0Estimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gojo's serve can keep sets away from tiebreaks.
- Gojo has five tiebreaks in fifteen hard matches.
- Paris has five tiebreaks in ten hard matches.
- Gojo has one first-set tiebreak in 15 hard matches.
- Gojo saves 68.2% of break points.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance58%

Previous match context available

Tom Paris

7W 8L

7-6(4) 7-6(13)#261Kilian Feldbausch 6-7(4) 6-2 7-5#493Romain Faucon

6-2 6-4#746Maximilian Marterer

7-6(5) 6-3#344Ugo Blanchet

7-6(6) 6-3#318Lucas Poullain

3-6 6-2 6-4#529Yanis Ghazouani Durand

6-4 6-2#414Niels Visker

0-6 6-1 6-3#558Lukas Pokorny

6-4 6-4#181Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

3-6 6-4 4-2 ret.#334Laurent Lokoli

6-4 6-0#353Tung-Lin Wu

7-5 0-6 6-4#752Yunseong Chung

6-7(3) 6-3 6-4#143Ilia Simakin

6-1 ret.#335Raphael Perot

7-5 7-5#850Kenny de Schepper

Borna Gojo

9W 6L

6-3 6-4#65Daniel Altmaier

6-3 7-6(2)#34Arthur Fery

6-3 7-6(4)#175Vitaliy Sachko

4-6 6-3 7-6(6)#171Francesco Maestrelli

6-2 7-5#191Jack Pinnington Jones

7-6(4) 7-6(0)#246Philip Henning

6-2 6-2—Maxi Carrascosa Diaz

3-6 6-3 6-4#69Titouan Droguet

7-5 6-3#400Vadym Ursu

6-2 3-6 6-3#69Titouan Droguet

6-4 6-4#243Matteo Martineau

6-4 7-6(6)#367Daniel Masur

6-4 6-4#91Bu Yunchaokete

6-1 6-4#206Zdenek Kolar

3-6 6-3 6-1#213Harry Wendelken

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TPTom ParisParis

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Borna GojoGojoBG

Borna Gojo carries the stronger recent form — Tom Paris's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In62.2%+5.7pp67.9%

1st Serve Won67.4%+8.3pp75.7%

2nd Serve Won52.9%+7.9pp45.0%

Aces / Match4.7+5.610.3

Double Faults / Match2.10.8 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won33.6%+1.7pp35.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted41.8%+5.9pp35.9%

Break Pts Saved62.9%+5.3pp68.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.2%+2.9pp51.1%

Serve · 2–3

62.2%1st Serve In+5.7pp67.9%

67.4%1st Serve Won+8.3pp75.7%

52.9%2nd Serve Won+7.9pp45.0%

4.7Aces / Match+5.610.3

2.1Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

33.6%Return Pts Won+1.7pp35.3%

Pressure · 1–1

41.8%Break Pts Converted+5.9pp35.9%

62.9%Break Pts Saved+5.3pp68.2%

Points · 0–1

48.2%Total Pts Won+2.9pp51.1%

Tom Paris

Borna Gojo

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Borna Gojo 2-0

Borna Gojo

Borna Gojo

Borna Gojo

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Tom Paris

Borna Gojo

Stat Battle