FranceBrest - FranceFinished

Kilian Feldbausch #261Switzerland0Tom Paris #676France2

Sets 6-7 · 6-7Mon 26 Oct 2026, 13:30Q3I.hard

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKilian Feldbausch · 415 places

Kilian Feldbausch

Switzerland

Swiss player, age 20, making his Grand Slam qualifying debut at the 2026 US Open. Contemporary reporting describes clay as his most comfortable surface.

Current ranking: #261
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Tom Paris

France

Paris is the French right-hander in this matchup, ranked No. 664 and listed at 191cm with a one-handed backhand. His recorded 2026 results came mostly indoors on hard courts.

Current ranking: #676
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 22:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Ranking says Feldbausch; Paris's hard-court record says this may take longer.

Feldbausch is the likelier winner, but only tentatively, and Paris's 10-match hard-court sample makes over 21.5 games the secondary lean. No quoted price was supplied, so there is no value bet to make.

Context

Both players won on 25 October, but Feldbausch has only two hard-court matches in the window against Paris's 10, and there is no confirmed availability news. The ranking gap is the main sporting fact.

Paris's opening sets on hard courts have often been close, with four tiebreaks in 10 matches.
The 10-match sample shows a clear pattern of tight first sets: 11.3 total games on average and four tiebreaks. It makes a long opening set a reasonable expectation, though not a guarantee, against Feldbausch. Paris lost six of 10 second sets in the same sample, a reminder that his matches can swing after a close start.
- 17 March to 25 October 2026: 10 completed hard-court matches in the sample.
- First sets: 5 wins, 5 losses, 5.7 games won and 5.6 games lost on average, 11.3 total games, four tiebreaks.
- Second sets: 4 wins, 6 losses in the same sample.
Feldbausch arrives after a clean scoreline, though against a player ranked 748.
The 6-0 6-3 win over Bouquier is the latest entry in Feldbausch's record and one completed hard-court match, not a trend. It shows a sharp finish to the day, but the opponent was ranked 748 and the sample is a single match. The ranking gap to Paris is real; this scoreline alone should carry modest weight.
- 25 October 2026: Feldbausch beat Arthur Bouquier 6-0 6-3, winning 12 games to 3.
- Bouquier was ranked 748.
- Single completed match from the supplied recent list.
Paris's latest win was longer than Feldbausch's and required a comeback.
The win over Faucon, ranked 493, is a concrete workload note: Paris played 33 games on 25 October, the same day Feldbausch played 15. That fits Paris's wider hard-court pattern of longer matches, but it does not establish fatigue for the next day. Faucon's ranking also makes the result solid rather than a headline scalp.
- 25 October 2026: Paris beat Romain Faucon 6-7 6-2 7-5 in a single completed match from the supplied recent list.
- Paris won 19 games and lost 14, for 33 total games.
- Faucon was ranked 493.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Feldbausch holds a clear ranking edge and won his only hard-court match of this week in straight sets, while Paris has beaten mostly lower-ranked opponents.
- Ranking 261 vs 676
- Feldbausch 8-7 overall in last 15; only 2 hard-court matches in the window (1-1)
- Paris 6-4 across 10 hard-court matches in the window
- Both won their most recent match on 2026-10-25; Feldbausch 6-0 6-3, Paris in three sets
BetBugs · Match WinnerKilian FeldbauschEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Paris's hard-court matches have regularly run long with tight opening sets, which lifts the expected game count.
- Paris averages 25.1 total games per hard-court match across 10 matches
- Paris set1 averages 11.3 total games with 4 tiebreaks in 10
- Feldbausch's two hard-court matches averaged 18.5 total games
BetBugs · Total GamesOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Paris's opening sets on hard have usually stretched past nine games, with a high rate of tiebreaks.
- Paris set1 total games average 11.3 across 10 hard-court matches
- 4 of Paris's 10 first sets ended in tiebreaks
- Feldbausch set1 total games average 7.5 in 2 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Paris splits opening sets almost evenly on hard courts, so the higher-ranked Feldbausch holds a modest advantage in the first set.
- Feldbausch set1 record on hard: 1-1, 4.5 games won vs 3.0 lost
- Paris set1 record on hard: 5-5 with 4 tiebreaks in 10 matches
- Paris set1 games 5.7 won vs 5.6 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerKilian FeldbauschEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have a meaningful share of straight-set results, and Feldbausch's latest outing was a short two-set win.
- Feldbausch's two hard-court matches ended 2-0 and 0-2
- Paris has lost 0-2 in 3 of 10 hard-court matches
- Feldbausch won his most recent match 6-0 6-3
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Paris's tight opening sets on hard courts make at least one tiebreak reasonably likely.
- Paris had a tiebreak in 5 of 10 hard-court matches
- Paris had 4 tiebreaks in first sets alone
- Feldbausch's hard-court sample is only 2 matches, 1 with a tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchYesEstimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Kilian Feldbausch

8W 7L

6-0 6-3#748Arthur Bouquier

7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(4)#190Diego Dedura

6-2 6-2#631Kai Wehnelt

7-5 6-3#392Gabriele Piraino

7-6(6) 6-3#237Andrej Nedic

6-3 6-2#265Matias Soto

6-3 7-6(1)#142Vilius Gaubas

4-6 6-1 6-1#362Norbert Gombos

6-3 6-3#341Duje Ajdukovic

6-3 6-7(6) 6-4#202Harold Mayot

2-6 6-2 6-2#33Ignacio Buse

7-6(2) 6-1#54Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

6-0 6-4#308Sandro Kopp

6-4 6-2#114Gustavo Heide

6-1 1-6 6-3#57Miomir Kecmanovic

Tom Paris

7W 8L

6-7(4) 6-2 7-5#493Romain Faucon

6-2 6-4#746Maximilian Marterer

7-6(5) 6-3#344Ugo Blanchet

7-6(6) 6-3#318Lucas Poullain

3-6 6-2 6-4#527Yanis Ghazouani Durand

6-4 6-2#414Niels Visker

0-6 6-1 6-3#558Lukas Pokorny

6-4 6-4#181Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

3-6 6-4 4-2 ret.#334Laurent Lokoli

6-4 6-0#353Tung-Lin Wu

7-5 0-6 6-4#752Yunseong Chung

6-7(3) 6-3 6-4#143Ilia Simakin

6-1 ret.#335Raphael Perot

7-5 7-5#850Kenny de Schepper

6-2 6-7(4) 6-2#515Matisse Bobichon

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KFKilian FeldbauschFeldbausch

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Tom ParisParisTP

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In68.3%+5.4pp62.9%

1st Serve Won64.8%+1.4pp66.2%

2nd Serve Won52.3%—52.7%

Aces / Match1.6+2.74.3

Double Faults / Match2.50.4 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won44.0%+8.5pp35.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted43.4%+1.1pp42.3%

Break Pts Saved59.0%+2.7pp61.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.1%+3.4pp48.7%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

68.3%1st Serve In+5.4pp62.9%

64.8%1st Serve Won+1.4pp66.2%

52.3%2nd Serve Won—52.7%

1.6Aces / Match+2.74.3

2.5Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

44.0%Return Pts Won+8.5pp35.5%

Pressure · 1–1

43.4%Break Pts Converted+1.1pp42.3%

59.0%Break Pts Saved+2.7pp61.7%

Points · 1–0

52.1%Total Pts Won+3.4pp48.7%