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Predictions graded

Sebastian Dominko #5562Karl Poling #452United States0

Sets 6-4 · 7-6Tue 27 Oct 2026, 21:30 Predictions gradedIndoor

Predictions1–0100%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKarl Poling · 104 places

Sebastian Dominko

The Notre Dame player won his second ITF singles title at M25 Pardubice in September 2026 and is the 203cm left-hander in this matchup. He is ranked No. 560, with most of his recent matches and wins coming on clay.

Current ranking: #556
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 203 cm

Karl Poling

United States

Poling is a left-handed American player, born 4 August 1999. Public profile sources list a career-best singles ranking of No. 487; no reliable current injury, comeback, or decline signal surfaced.

Current ranking: #452
Peak ranking: #487
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 06:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Two left-handers fresh off straight-set indoor wins meet with the rankings pointing one way and recent form the other: Poling is 452 to Dominko's 556, yet Dominko is 12-3 in his last 15.

Dominko is the stronger pick, but 1.29 asks too much for a two-in-three case. The one price worth considering is Poling at 3.3, a thin edge.

Context

Dominko's left-handed serve is the most productive single shot either player brings to this indoor hard match.
Across 14 tracked matches he made 64.6% of first serves and won 79.1% of those points (421 of 532), a rate Karl Poling's 65.8% (562 of 854 over 15 matches) does not match. The 9.1 aces per match give him a way to shorten service games. His 3.9 double faults per match (54 in 14) hands some of that back.
- 127 aces in 14 tracked matches, 9.1 per match
- 64.6% of first serves in (532 of 824) and 79.1% of first-serve points won (421 of 532) across 14 matches
- 3.9 double faults per match (54 in 14 matches)
His two most recent wins came on consecutive days, and the second of them required a recovery.
That was the tougher of his two latest victories, after a 7-5 6-3 win over Benjamin Willwerth on 26 October. Going a set down and still winning in three shows he can stay in a match when the first set slips away. Boulais, at 415, was the highest-ranked opponent in that recent stretch.
- Lost the first set 5-7 to Justin Boulais (ranked 415) on 25 October before winning 6-3, 6-4
- Beat Benjamin Willwerth 7-5 6-3 on 26 October
The narrowest of his recent results, and a reminder that his straight-set wins have not all been comfortable.
Both sets went to a tiebreak against an opponent ranked 524, so the margins were thin despite the scoreline. Across 15 tracked matches Poling has saved 54.3% of break points (50 of 92), and those situations decide sets like these. Dominko converts 40% of his break points (34 of 85), so the key moments may not fall Poling's way by default.
- Beat Patrick Zahraj 7-6 7-6 on 26 October, 14 games to 12
- Saved 50 of 92 break points (54.3%) across 15 tracked matches
Serve accuracy, rather than power, is the foundation of Poling's game.
Getting 854 of 1192 first serves into court means fewer points start from the second serve, and he wins a healthy 57.4% of those anyway (194 of 338). His first-serve points won sits at 65.8% (562 of 854), which is where Dominko holds a clear advantage. Poling also averages only 2.5 aces per match over 15, so the serve is about placement and starting the rally.
- 71.6% of first serves in (854 of 1192) across 15 tracked matches
- 57.4% of second-serve points won (194 of 338) and 65.8% of first-serve points won (562 of 854)
- 2.5 aces per match (38 in 15 matches)

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dominko's stronger serve and recent win rate outweigh Poling's slightly higher ranking.
- Dominko is 12-3 in his last 15 matches and has won 24 of 33 sets (72.7%).
- He has won 56.8% of games and 53.5% of total points, with 79.1% first-serve points won.
- Dominko won his last two indoor-hard matches in straight sets.
- Poling is 7-8 with 50.0% sets won and 49.6% games won over his last 15.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSebastian DominkoEstimated chance67%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Their combined double-fault rate is slightly under the line, and straight-set matches reduce service games.
- Combined double-fault average is 6.2, below the 6.5 line.
- Poling averages just 2.3 double faults per match.
- Dominko averages 3.9 double faults per match.
- Both recent wins were completed in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Their combined ace average sits just above the line, and Dominko's serve should provide most of the total.
- Dominko averages 9.1 aces per match (127 in 14); Poling averages 2.5 (38 in 15).
- Their combined ace average is 11.6 per match.
- Dominko's ace rate is 15.4% of service points (127/824).
- Both players' latest matches were on indoor hard.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 11.5Estimated chance53%

Previous match context available

Sebastian Dominko

12W 3L

7-5 6-3#848Benjamin Willwerth 5-7 6-3 6-4#415Justin Boulais

7-6(3) 6-1#367Daniel Masur

6-4 6-4#491Sebastian Gima

6-4 6-3—Stepan Baum

7-6(2) 6-2#522Rudolf Molleker

6-0 6-2—Jiri Cizek

6-1 6-1—Marko Bekeni

6-4 3-6 6-4#866Petr Michnev

6-1 6-1#152Clement Chidekh

7-6(3) 6-2#824Nikola Slavic

6-3 6-4—Remy Dugardin

6-3 6-4#779Loann Massard

4-6 6-3 6-4#312Samuele Pieri

6-3 6-4#505Filip Jeff Planinsek

Karl Poling

7W 8L

7-6(4) 7-6(7)#524Patrick Zahraj

6-3 6-2#888Maxwell Exsted

6-4 6-4#696Alex Rybakov

6-3 6-1—Iker Urribarrens Ramirez

6-4 6-3#482Aidan Mchugh

3-6 6-3 6-2#524Patrick Zahraj

6-7(6) 6-4 7-6(4)#69Titouan Droguet

6-4 7-6(8)#348Moez Echargui

6-2 6-1#529Yanis Ghazouani Durand

7-6(5) 6-7(6) 7-6(5)#824Nikola Slavic

6-4 6-3#685Thomas Fancutt

3-6 6-3 6-2#133Stefanos Sakellaridis

5-7 7-6(5) 6-4#762Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes

6-4 4-6 7-6(4)—Nikita Filin

7-6(1) 6-4#866Axel Nefve

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SDSebastian DominkoDominko

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Karl PolingPolingKP

Sebastian Dominko carries the stronger recent form — Karl Poling's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1564.6%+7.0pp71.6%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1579.1%+13.3pp65.8%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1553.8%+3.6pp57.4%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/159.1+6.62.5

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.91.6 fewer2.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1537.1%—36.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1540.0%+4.4pp35.6%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1566.0%+11.7pp54.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1553.5%+3.5pp50.0%

Serve · 2–3

64.6%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+7.0pp71.6%

79.1%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+13.3pp65.8%

53.8%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+3.6pp57.4%

9.1Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+6.62.5

3.9Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.6 fewer2.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

37.1%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15—36.9%

Pressure · 2–0

40.0%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+4.4pp35.6%

66.0%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+11.7pp54.3%

Points · 1–0

53.5%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.5pp50.0%