United StatesSioux Falls - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Justin Boulais #415Canada1Sebastian Dominko #5562

Sets 7-5 · 3-6 · 4-6Sun 25 Oct 2026, 23:45 Predictions gradedQ1I.hard

Predictions5–363%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJustin Boulais · 141 places

Justin Boulais

Canada

Canadian player; ITF records his ATP singles career high as No. 363 in June 2026. Public profile sources identify him as a left-hander with a one-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #415
Peak ranking: #363 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Sebastian Dominko

The Notre Dame player won his second ITF singles title at M25 Pardubice in September 2026 and is the 203cm left-hander in this matchup. He is ranked No. 560, with most of his recent matches and wins coming on clay.

Current ranking: #556
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 203 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 14:31 · Europe/Bucharest

A Sioux Falls qualifying opener between two left-handers: the higher-ranked Boulais has gone 5-10 on hard, while Dominko's 12-3 run is mostly clay and only five hard matches deep.

Dominko's serve makes him the likelier winner, but 1.7 asks more than that evidence supports, 2-0 at 2.6 is fair rather than generous, and Boulais at 2.05 is too short. No quoted price is worth taking.

Context

Boulais is the higher-ranked player at No. 415 but arrives with the weaker recent hard-court record of the two.
That defeat is the last entry in a 5-10 run across 15 hard matches from 13 July to 27 September 2026, and it came against a player ranked roughly 400 places below him. It explains why his No. 415 listing sits awkwardly beside his recent results. One match does not define the run, but the result is consistent with the wider window.
- 27 September 2026: lost 4-6 4-6 to Alexandre Reco (No. 812) on indoor hard
- Boulais won eight games across the two sets
Dominko carries the better overall recent record but a much thinner hard-court sample than his 12-3 ledger implies.
It is the most recent hard-court result in a five-match hard sample running from 8 September to 11 October 2026. Dominko won three of those five, and the victories around it came on clay, so the hard-court picture is short and mixed. It is a reason to treat the overall record with care rather than to dismiss him.
- 11 October 2026: lost 6-7 1-6 to Daniel Masur (No. 367) on hard
- Seven games won and 13 lost across the match
The set scores show a player whose recent hard matches have not stretched to a third set, with two of the five including a tiebreak. The sample is only five matches and contains two losses, so it describes a narrow window rather than a settled habit. It is a lean for a best-of-three qualifying round, not a promise of a short match.
- Five hard matches, 8 September to 11 October 2026: three 2-0 wins and two 0-2 losses
- Two of the five matches included a tiebreak; no match went to a third set
The match is part of the qualifying draw at Kwik Star Stadium rather than the main draw. That establishes the immediate stage and setting for this fixture. The available listing gives a start time but no court-specific conditions or workload detail, so it does not establish a playing consequence.
- The fixture is listed as a Sioux Falls qualifying first-round match at Kwik Star Stadium.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 14:30 · Europe/BucharestSioux Falls match listingwww.flashscore.com.au · 25 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Sebastian Dominko

1.70fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 58.8%

−2.8ppshort

Dominko has won on hard recently and his serve has been far more productive, while Boulais has been losing to lower-ranked opponents despite the higher ranking.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Dominko has won on hard recently and his serve has been far more productive, while Boulais has been losing to lower-ranked opponents despite the higher ranking.
- Hard-court last-15: 3-2 for Dominko, 5-10 for Boulais
- Hard-court first-serve points won: 78.1% Dominko vs 67.5% Boulais
- Aces per hard match: 10.0 Dominko vs 3.1 Boulais
- Boulais has lost to opponents ranked 812, 515, 243 and 202 in this window
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSebastian DominkoEstimated chance56%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Opening sets have averaged around ten games for each player, so a set reaching double figures is the likelier outcome.
- Set one games average 10.3 for both players on hard
- Boulais set one: 5.07 won, 5.27 lost
- Dominko set one: 5.2 won, 5.0 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have been lengthy for both, and Boulais's matches regularly pass 20 games, which keeps the overs live.
- Average total games: 22.5 Boulais, 18.6 Dominko
- Boulais set one and two averages: 10.3 and 9.4 games
- Dominko set one average 10.2 games, set two 8.4
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been shorter for both, particularly Dominko's 8.4-game average.
- Set two games average 9.4 Boulais, 8.4 Dominko
- No second-set tiebreaks in Dominko's five hard matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have mostly finished matches in two sets on hard this window, with only four three-setters between them.
- Dominko hard matches: 5 of 5 finished in straight sets
- Boulais hard matches: 11 of 15 finished in straight sets
- Average sets per match: 2.0 Dominko, 2.27 Boulais
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dominko has been slightly the stronger starter on hard and breaks serve better early.
- Hard-court set one: 3-2 Dominko, 6-9 Boulais
- Set one games won average 5.2 Dominko vs 5.07 Boulais
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostSebastian DominkoEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dominko's serve produces double-figure aces on hard, and Boulais adds a few, pushing the combined count past the line.
- Dominko 10.0 aces per hard match, 8.6 overall
- Boulais 3.1 aces per match over 15 hard matches
- Combined hard-court average around 13 aces
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 11.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these matches have been settled without a tiebreak, especially Dominko's short hard-court wins.
- Dominko: 3 of 5 hard matches had no tiebreak
- Boulais: 8 of 15 hard matches had no tiebreak
- Dominko average 18.6 total games on hard
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance56%

Justin Boulais

5W 10L

6-4 6-4#812Alexandre Reco

6-4 2-6 7-6(2)#202Harold Mayot

6-3 6-1#243Matteo Martineau

5-7 6-3 6-2—Mickael Kaouk

7-6(6) 6-3#515Matisse Bobichon

7-6(0) 6-2—Theo Arribage

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#515Matisse Bobichon

6-0 6-3—Matis Roche

7-6(4) 6-3#100Benjamin Bonzi

7-5 7-6(4)#97Adam Walton

6-3 6-3—Connor Church

5-7 6-2 7-5#333Johannus Monday

6-1 6-3#258August Holmgren

7-5 6-1#376Yuta Shimizu

6-2 7-6(6)#170Zhizhen Zhang

Sebastian Dominko

12W 3L

7-6(3) 6-1#367Daniel Masur

6-4 6-4#491Sebastian Gima

6-4 6-3—Stepan Baum

7-6(2) 6-2#522Rudolf Molleker

6-0 6-2—Jiri Cizek

6-1 6-1—Marko Bekeni

6-4 3-6 6-4#866Petr Michnev

6-1 6-1#152Clement Chidekh

7-6(3) 6-2#824Nikola Slavic

6-3 6-4—Remy Dugardin

6-3 6-4#779Loann Massard

4-6 6-3 6-4#312Samuele Pieri

6-3 6-4#501Filip Jeff Planinsek

6-4 6-7(5) 6-2#360Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-1 6-2#680Stefan Popovic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JBJustin BoulaisBoulais

Last 15

1–8

9 core stats · 0 even

Sebastian DominkoDominkoSD

Sebastian Dominko carries the stronger recent form — Justin Boulais's route runs through return.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1557.4%+8.0pp65.4%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1567.5%+11.3pp78.8%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1549.7%+3.3pp53.0%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/153.1+5.58.6

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/154.30.4 fewer3.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1539.2%+1.4pp37.8%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1540.4%+5.3pp45.7%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1558.9%+6.3pp65.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1549.5%+4.3pp53.8%

Serve · 0–5

57.4%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+8.0pp65.4%

67.5%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+11.3pp78.8%

49.7%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+3.3pp53.0%

3.1Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+5.58.6

4.3Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.4 fewer3.9

Return · 1–0

39.2%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.4pp37.8%

Pressure · 0–2

40.4%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+5.3pp45.7%

58.9%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+6.3pp65.2%

Points · 0–1

49.5%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+4.3pp53.8%