FranceBrest - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Moez Echargui #348Tunisia2Mickael Kaouk #962France0

Sets 6-3 · 6-2Sun 25 Oct 2026, 12:00 Predictions gradedQ1I.hard

Predictions6–0100%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMoez Echargui · 614 places

Moez Echargui

Tunisia

Age 33 with a career-high ranking of No. 134 on 29 December 2025. ITF lists sand/clay as his preferred surface, while ATP describes him as a counterpuncher.

Current ranking: #348
Peak ranking: #134 · 2025
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Mickael Kaouk

France

Kaouk, 18, is a French right-hander listed at 175 cm. His listed career-high singles ranking is No. 957.

Current ranking: #962
Peak ranking: #957
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 09:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Brest's qualifying opener pits a ranked regular, Moez Echargui, against wild card Mickael Kaouk, and the gap is real but not wide: Echargui is the likelier winner, yet his 1.44 match price asks for a 69.4% chance the record does not support.

The one quote with something in it is Kaouk at 2.5 to take the opening set; Echargui's 1.45 there does not appeal.

Context

Kaouk's serve statistics show a wide gap between his first and second delivery.
Rallies that start with a missed first serve often swing the other way, which puts pressure on a shot he leans on heavily. He has saved 57.1% of break points (76 of 133), and that has kept him inside sets even as the serve leaks. Against an opponent with no serve data on record, the break-point record is the counterweight.
- Second-serve points won: 42.8% (174/407) over 15 tracked matches.
- First-serve points won: 63.2% (411/650) over the same 15 matches.
- Double faults: 4.1 per match; break points saved 57.1% (76/133).
The order of play establishes this as a qualifying opener rather than a main-draw meeting. Its Center Court placement defines the immediate event setting for the fixture. The listed preceding matches mean the practical start time can depend on how those earlier matches progress.
- The order of play places this qualifying match on Center Court in the 12:00 slot.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 09:33 · Europe/BucharestTennisTemple match pageen.tennistemple.com · 25 Oct 2026
The rankings provide the field-position context for this qualifying match and identify Kaouk as a wild card. They help frame the players' routes into the event. They do not establish a current availability issue, court-specific condition, or fixture-specific playing factor.
- The Brest qualifying listing shows Echargui at No. 348 and Kaouk at No. 936.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 09:33 · Europe/BucharestTennisTemple match pageen.tennistemple.com · 25 Oct 2026
The absence of a previous meeting makes Brest their first recorded direct reference point. It is relevant context for a qualifying opener between players with no established match history. It does not identify how either player's game has matched up against the other in competition.
- No prior match between Echargui and Kaouk is recorded as of .
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 09:33 · Europe/BucharestMatchstat head-to-head pagematchstat.com · 24 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Moez Echargui

1.44fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69.4%

−9.4ppshort

Echargui has the stronger ranking and better recent wins, while Kaouk's hard-court record and second-serve numbers are weaker.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Echargui has the stronger ranking and better recent wins, while Kaouk's hard-court record and second-serve numbers are weaker.
- Echargui is ranked 348; Kaouk has no ranking.
- Echargui is 7-7 in 14 hard-court matches, with first sets 8-6 and second sets 6-8.
- Kaouk is 2-4 in six hard-court matches and has won 44.4% of games (56/126).
- Kaouk has lost five of his last six completed matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMoez EcharguiEstimated chance60%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' completed hard-court matches more often finish in two sets than three.
- Echargui's hard-court scorelines include 8 two-set matches and 6 three-set matches.
- Kaouk's six hard-court matches include 5 two-set finishes and 1 three-set finish.
- The setBetting scores here put straight-set wins at 60%.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Echargui has the better first-set win count and slightly better first-set game balance.
- Echargui has won 8 of 14 first sets on hard.
- Kaouk has won 3 of 6 first sets on hard.
- Echargui's first-set games average 4.93 won and 5.14 lost.
- Kaouk's first-set games average 4.17 won and 5.17 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMoez EcharguiEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Echargui's second-set record is modest but better than Kaouk's on the same surface.
- Echargui has won 6 of 14 second sets on hard.
- Kaouk has won 2 of 6 second sets on hard.
- Kaouk's second-set games average 4.83 won and 5.50 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMoez EcharguiEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of the available hard-court matches for both players did not include a tiebreak.
- Echargui has 9 matches without a tiebreak in 14 hard-court matches.
- Kaouk has 4 matches without a tiebreak in 6 hard-court matches.
- Kaouk's six hard-court matches produced two tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance63%

Moez Echargui

8W 7L

6-2 6-1#156Daniil Glinka

7-5 6-4#230Raul Brancaccio

6-1 7-5#209Edas Butvilas

7-5 6-0#83Damir Dzumhur

6-1 4-6 6-4#367Daniel Masur

6-4 7-6(8)#452Karl Poling

6-7(3) 6-4 6-3#559Luca Potenza

6-7(2) 7-5 6-1#187Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

7-5 1-6 7-6(2)#249Billy Harris

6-4 6-2#318Lucas Poullain

2-6 6-4 6-4#191Jack Pinnington Jones

6-4 6-4#118Hugo Dellien

6-3 6-4#30Hubert Hurkacz

6-4 2-6 7-6(5)#194Moise Kouame

6-2 5-0 ret.#75Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Mickael Kaouk

7W 8L

6-3 7-6(6)#367Daniel Masur

6-4 7-6(7)#362Norbert Gombos

5-7 6-3 6-2#415Justin Boulais

6-0 6-3#307Anton Matusevich

6-2 6-4#524Patrick Zahraj

6-4 6-2—Nicolas Ifi

6-4 7-6(7)#776Matt Ponchet

7-6(5) 6-2—Lars Goran Verwerft

6-3 6-4#334Laurent Lokoli

6-2 6-0—Justas Trainauskas

6-2 6-3#226Marvin Moeller

7-5 3-6 7-6(3)#320Dali Blanch

6-7(8) 7-5 6-3#543Menelaos Efstathiou

6-0 6-0—Filiberto Fumagalli

6-0 6-1—Arthur Bonnaud

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MEMoez EcharguiEchargui

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Mickael KaoukKaoukMK

Mickael Kaouk carries the stronger recent form — Moez Echargui's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In56.3%+5.2pp61.5%

1st Serve Won67.3%+4.1pp63.2%

2nd Serve Won47.4%+4.6pp42.8%

Aces / Match5.1+3.41.7

Double Faults / Match2.71.4 fewer4.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won40.1%+4.5pp44.6%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted39.7%+8.3pp48.0%

Break Pts Saved55.8%+1.3pp57.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.3%+0.8pp50.1%

Serve · 4–1

56.3%1st Serve In+5.2pp61.5%

67.3%1st Serve Won+4.1pp63.2%

47.4%2nd Serve Won+4.6pp42.8%

5.1Aces / Match+3.41.7

2.7Double Faults / Match1.4 fewer4.1

Return · 0–1

40.1%Return Pts Won+4.5pp44.6%

Pressure · 0–2

39.7%Break Pts Converted+8.3pp48.0%

55.8%Break Pts Saved+1.3pp57.1%

Points · 0–1

49.3%Total Pts Won+0.8pp50.1%