FranceBrest - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Matisse Bobichon #515France2Michael Geerts #347Belgium0

Sets 7-6 · 6-3Tue 27 Oct 2026, 12:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions8–189%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMichael Geerts · 168 places

Matisse Bobichon

France

Bobichon, 24, is listed as right-handed. Reliable public profile information does not establish a preferred surface or career-high date.

Current ranking: #515
Peak ranking: #633
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Michael Geerts

Belgium

Reached a career-high No. 212 on 3 April 2023. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #347
Peak ranking: #212 · 2023
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 03:06 · Europe/Bucharest

This first round at Brest pits Bobichon's 11-4 hard-court record against a higher-ranked Geerts who has won six of nine.

Bobichon is the likelier winner, and his prices — 2.1 for the match, 2.0 for the first set, 2.1 for the second — all offer potential value. Geerts at 1.65 does not.

Context

Bobichon's 15 hard-court matches have mostly been settled quickly in his favour.
Bobichon's hard-court matches average 2.2 sets and 20.7 games, and nine of the 15 were straight-set wins. That pattern sits behind the case for a two-set finish here. The counterweight is Michael Geerts, whose nine hard-court matches average 2.44 sets and include four three-setters.
- Sample: 15 completed hard-court matches between 13 September and 26 October 2026.
- Scorelines: nine 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins, three 0-2 losses, one 1-2 loss.
- Average sets per match 2.2; average total games 20.7.
Geerts has been a slower starter than finisher across his nine hard-court matches.
Geerts averages 4.89 first-set games won against 5.00 lost, then 5.0 won against 4.33 lost in the second set. The split matters against an opponent who is 10-5 in first sets and 11-4 in second sets. It also shows a poor opening set has not stopped Geerts staying in matches.
- Sample: nine completed hard-court matches, 18 August to 26 October 2026.
- First sets: 4-5, averaging 4.89 games won and 5.00 lost.
- Second sets: 6-3, averaging 5.0 games won and 4.33 lost.
Bobichon comes into the first round off a long three-setter the previous day.
The win over Poullain ran to 29 games and finished less than 24 hours before this first-round kick-off. Nothing in the record indicates injury or unavailability, and he did win the match. It is a workload note on a player whose recent hard-court schedule has been busy rather than a forecast in itself.
- 26 October 2026: beat Lucas Poullain (ranked 318) 6-3, 1-6, 7-6 on indoor hard.
- Games: 14 won, 15 lost across three sets.
- Result recorded as a completed win, not a retirement.
Geerts's nine hard-court matches have produced more games than Bobichon's 15.
Geerts's sets tend to extend: 24.1 games on average, with four of nine matches featuring a tiebreak and three finishing 2-1. Bobichon's 15 hard-court matches average 20.7 games, which cuts the other way. The contrast is real, but it rests on two small samples rather than a settled pattern.
- Sample: nine completed hard-court matches, 18 August to 26 October 2026.
- Total games average 24.1; four of the nine matches included a tiebreak.
- Scorelines: three 2-1 wins, three 2-0 wins, two 0-2 losses, one 1-2 loss.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Bobichon has the stronger recent hard-court results and serve numbers, and he is playing at home in France.
- Bobichon is 11-4 in 15 hard-court matches, with 54.8% of games and 51.6% of total points won.
- He has a 10-5 first-set record and an 11-4 second-set record on hard courts.
- His first-serve points won are 74.2% and break points saved 72.8% in this sample.
- Geerts is ranked 347 but is 6-3 on hard courts with 50.8% of total points won.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMatisse BobichonEstimated chance55%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been shorter for both players, so under ten games is the more likely outcome.
- Bobichon's second sets average 8.93 total games; Geerts's average 9.33.
- Bobichon's second-set games won average 5.2 against 3.73 lost.
- Geerts's second-set games won average 5.0 against 4.33 lost.
- Both second-set averages are below 9.5.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first-set game averages sit just above the line, making a ten-game set slightly more likely.
- Bobichon's first sets average 9.6 total games; Geerts's average 9.89.
- Bobichon has one first-set tiebreak in 15 hard-court matches; Geerts has two in nine.
- Both first-set averages sit just above the line.
- Bobichon has won 10 of 15 first sets, several by a single break.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set outcomes are common for Bobichon, and his matches tend to finish below the line.
- Bobichon's hard-court matches average 20.7 total games; Geerts's average 24.1.
- Bobichon has won 2-0 in nine of 15 hard-court matches; Geerts has three 2-0 wins in nine.
- Bobichon's second-set matches average 8.9 total games.
- Geerts's hard-court matches average 24.1 games, which supports the over.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 22.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bobichon has a strong straight-set habit and second-set record, making a two-set match more likely.
- Bobichon has won 2-0 in nine of 15 hard-court matches; Geerts has three 2-0 wins in nine.
- Bobichon's hard-court matches average 2.2 sets; Geerts's average 2.44.
- Bobichon has an 11-4 second-set record on hard courts.
- Geerts has gone to a third set in four of nine hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Bobichon has started strongly more often and holds a clear edge in first-set wins.
- Bobichon is 10-5 in first sets on hard courts; Geerts is 4-5.
- Bobichon averages 5.13 first-set games won against 4.47 lost; Geerts averages 4.89 won against 5.00 lost.
- Bobichon wins 74.2% of first-serve points in this sample.
- Geerts has forced two first-set tiebreaks in nine hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMatisse BobichonEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Bobichon's second-set record is stronger, and he has won more hard-court matches overall.
- Bobichon is 11-4 in second sets on hard courts; Geerts is 6-3.
- Bobichon averages 5.2 second-set games won against 3.73 lost.
- Bobichon has won 11 of 15 hard-court matches overall.
- Geerts has a solid 6-3 second-set record in his hard-court sample.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMatisse BobichonEstimated chance56%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bobichon's straight-set tendency reduces the chance of a tiebreak, though Geerts has a higher tiebreak rate.
- Bobichon has three tiebreak matches in 15 hard-court matches; Geerts has four in nine.
- Bobichon has won 2-0 in nine of 15 hard-court matches.
- Bobichon's second sets average 8.93 total games.
- Geerts has four tiebreak matches in nine hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players ace at a decent rate, and their combined average sits above the line.
- Bobichon averages 5.5 aces per hard-court match; Geerts averages 5.7.
- Their combined hard-court average is about 11.2 aces.
- Geerts has 51 aces in nine hard-court matches.
- Bobichon has 82 aces in 15 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined rate is close to the line, and Bobichon's low count makes the under slightly more likely.
- Bobichon averages 3.0 double faults per hard-court match; Geerts averages 3.9.
- Bobichon has 45 double faults in 15 hard-court matches; Geerts has 35 in nine.
- Their combined hard-court average is 6.9.
- Bobichon has won 2-0 in nine of 15 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance51%

Previous match context available

Matisse Bobichon

11W 4L

6-3 1-6 7-6(2)#318Lucas Poullain 3-6 6-3 7-5#438Yannik Kelm

6-3 6-4#186Felix Balshaw

7-5 7-6(5)#249Billy Harris

6-1 1-6 6-1#479Sergio Callejon Hernando

6-4 6-2#1149Alejandro Garcia

7-5 6-4—Daniil Sarksian

6-0 6-0#899Leonid Sheyngezikht

7-5 6-0—Carlos Giraldi

6-4 6-4#485Viktor Durasovic

6-2 6-1#169Tristan Schoolkate

6-3 7-5#79Adrian Mannarino

6-4 6-4#379Eliakim Coulibaly

7-6(6) 6-3#415Justin Boulais

6-2 6-4#1755Alex Kobelt

Michael Geerts

9W 6L

4-6 6-4 6-3#477Niels Mcdonald 6-0 6-1#682Leo Raquillet

6-4 6-1#390Pavel Lagutin

6-4 6-1#209Edas Butvilas

3-6 6-4 7-6(4)#578Joao Domingues

7-6(3) 6-2#498Vladyslav Orlov

6-4 7-5#325Carlos Sanchez Jover

6-3 6-4#272Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-7(5) 6-3 7-5#318Lucas Poullain

4-6 6-4 6-4#560Radu Albot

6-3 7-6(6)—Billy Blaydes

2-6 6-2 6-4—Lars Goran Verwerft

6-4 6-4#446Geoffrey Blancaneaux

7-5 6-3#824Nicolas Robert

6-3 6-2#585Martin Van Der Meerschen

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MBMatisse BobichonBobichon

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Michael GeertsGeertsMG

Matisse Bobichon carries the stronger recent form — Michael Geerts's route runs through return.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In58.4%+3.7pp54.7%

1st Serve Won74.2%+2.1pp72.1%

2nd Serve Won51.7%+2.0pp49.7%

Aces / Match5.5+1.44.1

Double Faults / Match3.00.4 fewer3.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.3%+2.1pp40.4%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted42.4%—42.6%

Break Pts Saved72.8%+13.2pp59.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.6%+0.8pp50.8%

Serve · 5–0

58.4%1st Serve In+3.7pp54.7%

74.2%1st Serve Won+2.1pp72.1%

51.7%2nd Serve Won+2.0pp49.7%

5.5Aces / Match+1.44.1

3.0Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer3.4

Return · 0–1

38.3%Return Pts Won+2.1pp40.4%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

42.4%Break Pts Converted—42.6%

72.8%Break Pts Saved+13.2pp59.6%

Points · 1–0

51.6%Total Pts Won+0.8pp50.8%